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Selected analysis
Budget 2026: where the money for new commitments came from
The deficit for this fiscal year is close to the spring forecast. Under that figure, the forecast improved by $158 billion over five years and new commitments used $152 billion of it. This page traces the figures through the budget’s own tables.
Read from Budget 2026 as published on November 10, 2026. Figures are the budget’s own projections, not results.
Ottawa’s red-tape reset reaches far beyond paperwork
How Ottawa’s proposed changes could affect business restructuring, electricity storage, trade and development near airports.
Proposed changes, read from the first-reading bill. This is a dated analysis, not a current bill-status check.
British Columbia’s next growth test
Real output has more than doubled since the late nineties. Growth per resident is slower, the ports serve a national production base, and the pre-election fiscal plan leaves a large deficit.
The next post-election budget is not yet available to test the fiscal posture. Project announcements do not establish future production, royalties or net public benefits.
Can Canada sell beyond the United States? · Recent record: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. The window follows recorded checks, material corrections and selected analyses. Qualification and wording notices do not move it.
Recent evidence readings
Showing 5 of 5 readings in this window, newest first. The remaining entries are in the full record below and the monthly archives.
Change type and importance are separate editorial decisions. An issuer revision can be material or minor; a checked-unchanged reading is still a finding. Minor changes include housekeeping only when the recorded effect warrants that description.
Evidence update · Material change
Goods exports to countries other than the United States rose by $49.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from a year earlier. Unwrought gold and other precious metals account for $25.8 billion of that, or 53%.
More on this: US Exposure Monitor →
Why it stands: Budget 2026 reports progress toward doubling non-U.S. exports by the end of 2035. Its figures reproduce on Statistics Canada's balance of payments data. The product split is from customs data, table 12-10-0182.
For all destinations together, export prices rose 9.7% and export volume did not change over the same nine months. For all destinations, the export price of the gold category rose 41%.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The October trade release, scheduled for December 8.
Limit: The budget's figures cover goods and services on a balance of payments basis. The gold share is for goods on a customs basis. Statistics Canada's export price and volume indexes cover all destinations together, so this record has no volume measure for non-U.S. exports alone.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from
Evidence update · Material change
Canada assessed $14.1 billion in counter-tariffs on U.S. goods from March 4, 2025 to October 26, 2026. It remitted or relieved $8.9 billion. The net amount was $5.2 billion.
More on this: The Tariff Ledger →
Why it stands: Budget 2026, Annex 1. Budget 2025 and the Spring Economic Update gave earlier totals: $3.7 billion and $4.3 billion net.
Relief took 63% of the gross amount. The budget's revenue forecast assumes the counter-tariffs stay in place into fiscal 2027–28.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The government's next published total, at the next budget or fiscal update. Customs import duties in the monthly Fiscal Monitor include all duties and do not separate counter-tariffs.
Limit: The budget says the net figure remains subject to revision. These are Canadian duties on imports from the United States. They are not U.S. duties on Canadian goods.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on
Evidence update · Minor change
Budget 2026 states goals that can be measured: 24,000 non-market housing starts a year, 200,000 homes through Build Canada Homes in the next decade, and 380,000 permanent residents a year from 2027 to 2029. It repeats the goal to double non-U.S. exports by the end of 2035.
More on this: Which public promises can actually be checked? →
Why it stands: Budget 2026, chapter 3 and the economic overview. Each goal is now registered with its source.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The next monthly housing starts, immigration and trade releases.
Limit: Countability has not yet identified a public series that counts non-market housing starts. That goal is registered without a progress reading.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Big Question it bears on · the Big Question it bears on · the Big Question it bears on
Evidence update · Material change
The U.S. share of Canada’s goods exports was 68.30% over the twelve months through September 2026, against 73.49% over the preceding twelve months. In September, U.S.-bound exports rose 0.7% while exports to other countries fell 1.1%.
More on this: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
Why it stands: Statistics Canada released September trade on November 4; the primary table and issuer article were captured November 10. Both twelve-month windows are recomputed within this source edition.
This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.
Trigger recorded for this reading: October merchandise trade, scheduled December 8; or an earlier qualified revision.
Limit: Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted, nominal Canadian dollars. Customs, services and transport panels have different coverage and adjustment bases. Neither a monthly movement nor a lower rolling share identifies tariff effects or durable diversification. The legal assessment remains separately dated September 29.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from
Correction · Minor change
A dated amendment clarifies that the already withdrawn January labour claim stays withdrawn and the different February candidate stays deferred. The U.S. trade Pulse’s trigger grammar is corrected. Monitor links now display the name of their actual destination; Deep Dives label the assembled record’s date without claiming a fresh review of every source.
More on this: Canadian Capacity Monitor →
Why it stands: The prior examination identified ambiguous wording. The October 13 pass also corrects older Monitor-link labels and the sitewide Deep Dive date label. Earlier assessments and Pulse objects are retained exactly; source values and recorded admission states have not changed.
These are explicit copy and display-label corrections. The withdrawal was already recorded; this amendment neither changes an admission decision nor enters new evidence.
Trigger recorded for this reading: A newly qualified source or separately examined structural candidate.
Limit: The February candidate remains deferred; this amendment does not qualify it or reinstate the withdrawn January claim.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Canadian Capacity Monitor
Monthly evidence archives
Historical readings retain their original dates, text, limits and then-future triggers. They are not refreshed assessments. A linked current resolution may supersede a historical uncertainty.
Changed
Evidence update · Material change
The U.S. share of Canada’s goods exports was 68.34% over the twelve months through August 2026, compared with 73.88% over the preceding twelve months. U.S.-bound exports rose 8.1% in August from July, to $54.35 billion.
More on this question: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
Why it stands: The October 6 issuer release advances the trade reference month to August. The new balance-of-payments comparison and the separate customs, services and transport panels use their qualified source editions; prior captured July readings remain available.
A lower rolling U.S. share and a monthly rebound in U.S.-bound exports occur together. These measurements do not establish durable diversification.
Trigger recorded for this reading: September merchandise trade, scheduled November 4 in the issuer’s August release, or a revision to the current source edition.
Limit: Nominal values, seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis. The twelve-month share divides summed U.S. exports by summed all-country exports. Customs, services, transport and goods observations are not pooled. August spans days before and after the August 22 Section 338 effective date and precedes September legal changes; these aggregates cannot identify tariff effects.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
The U.S. Exposure Brief now compares July 2026 trade by road, rail, air, water and other transport. Each mode shows exports and imports separately, against July 2025 and against its own world total.
More on this: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
Why it stands: Statistics Canada’s September 3 transport-mode table supplies a new view of the same July reference month. The calculation preserves the customs basis and unadjusted nominal values instead of mixing them with the Brief’s separate balance-of-payments headline.
Readers can locate U.S. concentration by transport mode and flow. The new table gives a more detailed comparison without changing July into a post-duty observation.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The next monthly trade release or a revision to the transport-mode series.
Limit: Transport mode does not identify the commodity, border crossing or place of production. Nominal changes combine prices and quantities. July 2026 precedes the August 22, 2026 effective date of the U.S. Section 338 duties. These comparisons cannot measure their effects.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
The updated trade archive follows 34 issuer releases through September 3, 2026, with reference months through July. In that latest vintage, Canada’s 2025 merchandise exports total $3.52 billion less than the sum of the twelve first monthly estimates.
More on this: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
Why it stands: The U.S. Exposure Brief’s companion trade-revision record now extends to 33 first-observable months. The separate GDP revision study extends to 139 releases through August 28: outside March–August 2020, first-to-latest monthly growth revisions average 0.142 percentage points in absolute terms, and 18 of 132 estimates reverse sign.
A new monthly figure is provisional. In the GDP sample, 15 of 42 initial movements smaller than 0.10 percentage points reverse sign, compared with none of 67 movements of at least 0.20 points. These historical comparisons help readers judge precision; they are not probabilities for the next release.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The next issuer-maintained GDP or trade revision table, or a revision that changes the study’s comparison or uncertainty.
Limit: The trade result covers seasonally adjusted, nominal exports to all countries on the balance-of-payments basis, not U.S. exports alone. GDP and trade are separate studies. Recent months have less time to revise, the latest values remain revisable, and months present before the archive began are excluded from first-estimate comparisons. The GDP study does not establish a dependable upward bias.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
The United States import bans reach their legal effective date on September 29. Three proclamations cover specific Canadian alcoholic beverages, whey and molasses products, non-alcoholic beer and motorcycles in the tariff line for engines over 800 cc. These are listed products, not whole industries. Two further proclamations changed the goods subject to earlier 50 percent duties from September 15 and made those amended duties apply alongside Section 232 duties. The trade reading remains on July, before these September actions.
More on this: The Tariff Ledger →
Why it stands: Five proclamations signed September 8 and published in the Federal Register September 14 were captured with their complete annexes and assessed on September 29. The evidence date is their Federal Register publication date. This is a late reading of already published documents, not a new September 29 trade observation. The scope-change effective date is September 15; the import-exclusion effective date is September 29 at 12:01 a.m. eastern time.
For the specific excluded products, the legal rule changes from an additional tariff to an import prohibition. Other products enter or leave the amended tariff lists. That change in legal treatment warrants a fresh reading, while the aggregate economic effect remains unmeasured here.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The August merchandise-trade release scheduled for October 6, or an official amendment, implementation notice or court decision changing the cited legal provisions.
Limit: The annexes define narrow tariff lines and packaging limits. Covered goods imported before September 29 but not yet entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption retain the earlier 50 percent duty. This record has not observed blocked shipments, duties assessed or collected, an affected-trade-value total, or a causal effect on trade, employment, prices or GDP. The dairy prohibition references a separate scope document this reading has not established; no sixth proclamation is inferred. A complete reconciliation against the current HTSUS is not claimed.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from
Evidence update · Material change
Third reading, on the July 2026 trade record, and the share set a record. Over the twelve months through July 2026 the United States bought 68.50 per cent of Canada's goods exports, against 74.08 per cent a year earlier -- a one-year fall of 5.58 percentage points. That window is the lowest United States share in the twenty-nine-year monthly record, and unlike the previous low it stands alone: the next-lowest window, ending April 2026, reads 68.99 per cent, half a percentage point higher. The single month is sharper than the window. Exports to the United States fell 6.6 per cent from June to July, ending a run of five straight monthly rises, while exports to every other country together rose 7.4 per cent to the highest monthly level this record holds. In July, 33.7 per cent of Canada's goods exports went somewhere other than the United States. The reallocation is still narrow: 52.7 per cent of the twelve-month rest-of-world rise is the United Kingdom alone, and on the customs record the all-countries unwrought gold, silver and platinum-group-metals series is up 43.9 per cent window on window. Motor vehicles found almost no other buyer -- a 9.7 per cent fall in United States-bound sales against a rest-of-world gain worth 5.6 cents of every dollar lost.
More on this: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
Why it stands: Statistics Canada published the July 2026 international merchandise trade record on 3 September 2026 at 08:30, its own recorded release time, verified in the issuer's own cube metadata before any figure was read and committed as evidence. Both trade Resolutions were advanced to the 2026-09-04 capture under an explicit supersession chain: 48 publications re-pinned and 92 values re-derived from the newly archived bytes, each publication's series coordinate proven against its own already-published June figures before it was moved. The June and May vintages are retained on the record, superseded and unrewritten.
The break deepened rather than held. Through the spring the share sat within a tenth of a point of a low it kept not quite setting; July set it outright, by half a point, and did so through the United States side falling rather than through the rest of the world merely rising. What has not changed is the shape of the reallocation: outside the bullion channel it stays modest, and about seven of every ten export dollars still come from one customer.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The August 2026 trade record, which the issuer's own July release article states is scheduled for 6 October 2026. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after the date the United States duties became legally effective, but only its last ten days fall on or after that date -- it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them.
Limit: All values are nominal, and partner shares are gross shipment values, not domestic value added; nothing here separates price from volume. Every monthly value behind the window remains revisable, and this release itself restated June. July 2026 ends before 22 August 2026, the date the United States duties became legally effective under the proclamations, and before 8 September 2026, the date Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective. No month in this reading covers a single day under either measure, so no effect of either can be observed in it, and none is claimed. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
On August 25, Canada answered. The government said it will match the U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar: counter-tariffs of 15, 25 or 50 per cent, legally effective September 8, on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods -- each rate matching the U.S. rate on that same product. The United States duties themselves became legally effective on August 22 under the proclamations; this record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments under either country's measures. In some sectors, including steel and aluminum, an existing 25 per cent Canadian counter-tariff rises to 50 per cent. The list covers goods in sectors such as steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. Canada also announced $7.5 billion in new support for workers and businesses, on top of what the government says is nearly $25 billion already provided over the past 18 months. The new support includes business loans, a new diversification fund, and extended Employment Insurance measures, including dropping the one-week waiting period for another year. Finance's own announcement opens by putting a precise number on the Prime Minister's 'roughly $28 billion': it says the U.S. tariff applies to $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. The same announcement says Canada is matching that dollar for dollar, and that Canada's own counter-tariffs cover a matching $27.6 billion of U.S. goods. This record reads the $27.6 billion figure the way the announcement itself does: a precise restatement of the Prime Minister's number, and, by the government's own design, equal to the value of U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs will apply to once they become legally effective.
More on this: The Tariff Ledger →
Why it stands: This reading rests on three of the Department of Finance Canada's own 2026-08-25 documents: the news release, the backgrounder, and the 'Complete list of U.S. products subject to counter tariffs' page. All three are archived here with their own content hashes, in this record's Resolution covering the 2026 U.S. tariff escalation and Canada's own retaliation. The U.S. Exposure Brief and the Fiscal Settlement Resolution's own caveat were both extended the same day to carry this reading.
Canada's retaliation is no longer just a stated intent. It now has a published rate schedule, a scope figure, and an effective date -- the same kind of detail the U.S. proclamations already had. The government's own announcement states $27.6 billion as the precise version of the Prime Minister's 'roughly $28 billion' figure. The same announcement says Canada's own counter-tariffs are matched to it dollar for dollar. This record does not compute a numeric difference between the two figures, because they are not two independent measurements to compare: the announcement itself presents one as a precise restatement of the other, and the second as matched to it by design. Whether or how the trade share moves is still a question for the next Statistics Canada release, not this one. Neither is a deficit or GDP effect of the new $7.5 billion in spending stated here.
Trigger recorded for this reading: Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective 2026-09-08. The July 2026 trade record, at Statistics Canada's next scheduled monthly release, is the next test of whether the trade share moves.
Limit: The published item-level tariff schedule runs to several thousand rows. This record does not copy the schedule out. It states only the publications' own summary text, and the rate tiers it checked are present in the schedule: dairy, cosmetics, and some wood products carry the 50 per cent rate on specific items, finer than the government's own 'Quick facts', which name examples rather than a complete list. The list page's own note says it is 'prepared for information purposes only and has no official sanction', and this record's rate-tier check carries that same qualification. Neither the $27.6 billion nor the $7.5 billion figure carries an explicit currency designation in any document that states it. The nearly-$25-billion cumulative figure is the government's own approximate figure, not an audited total. No document this record has captured -- the four U.S. proclamations, the Prime Minister's statements, or the Department of Finance's own release, backgrounder, and programs pages -- states a GDP or growth figure tied to this episode, and none is stated here.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
In July, the United States moved to put a 50 per cent tariff on lists of Canadian goods -- three separate proclamations, each with an effective date of August 19. The U.S. then delayed that effective date by three days, to August 22 -- the proclamation that did this says senior U.S. officials reported that Canada had promised to change the practices at issue, not a finding the proclamation makes in its own voice. But no deal was reached. On August 21, the Prime Minister said last-minute changes in the U.S. position were unfair, and put the reliability of any deal in doubt. He suspended trade talks and called Canada's negotiators home. The duties became legally effective the next day, August 22, under the proclamations, on roughly $28 billion of Canadian goods. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments. The government's own figure doesn't say which country's dollars. Canada said it would match the tariffs dollar for dollar. The day after that, the Prime Minister said Canada's own measures would begin 'the Tuesday after Labour Day.' This record does not turn that into a calendar date, and at the time, no rate or full list of goods had been given. The most recent trade figures on this record are from June, before any of this happened.
More on this: The Tariff Ledger →
Why it stands: This reading rests on six primary documents: three U.S. proclamations signed July 20, 2026; the proclamation that delayed their start; and the Prime Minister's own statements on August 21 and August 22, 2026. All six are archived here with their own content hashes, and read into a new Resolution that leaves this record's 2025 tariff entry untouched. The U.S. Exposure Brief was updated when this reading was published, to carry it next to its separate, unchanged trade reading.
The exposure this record already measures now sits under a new legal authority: a flat 50 per cent extra rate on certain products of Canada, as each proclamation's own Annex II sets out. The transcribed operative text names no exemption for goods that would otherwise qualify under USMCA. Canada has said it will retaliate, starting 'the Tuesday after Labour Day' in the Prime Minister's own words -- but at this point no rate or full product list had been published yet. Whether or how the trade share moves is a question for the next trade release, not this one.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The July 2026 trade record, at Statistics Canada's next scheduled monthly release. Canada's own retaliation rate, scope, and effective date were published August 25 -- see the newer reading above.
Limit: None of the three proclamations states a total dollar value for the goods newly subject to its duty. The 'roughly $28 billion' figure is the Government of Canada's own statement, in a currency it does not designate, and it is not reconciled here against any U.S. figure. At the time, Canada's own retaliatory tariffs had no published rate and no full product list in either of the two Canadian primary sources this record had captured by then. The Prime Minister's own words placed the timing at 'the Tuesday after Labour Day' -- this record did not convert that into a calendar date. Each proclamation also names an Annex I once, as a possible exception to how these duties stack on other duties; this record has not read what Annex I contains. This record does not attribute any trade movement to any action, and none has been measured yet. Update: Canada published its own rate, scope, and effective date on August 25 -- see the newer reading above.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Evidence update · Material change
Second reading, on the June 2026 trade record. Over the twelve months through June 2026, the United States bought 69.07 per cent of Canada's goods exports, against 74.48 per cent a year earlier. That is a one-year fall of 5.41 percentage points -- shallower than the 5.78-point fall the May window showed, and well short of the record's fastest fall, 7.16 points, in the window ending March 2026. The share sits just above its record low: the March and April 2026 windows jointly hold that low, at 69.01 per cent, only 0.004 points apart. U.S.-bound exports have now risen for five straight months.
More on this question: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
Why it stands: Statistics Canada published the June 2026 international merchandise trade record on August 4, 2026, on the schedule its own May release stated. Both trade Resolutions were advanced to the 2026-08-04 capture under an explicit supersession chain: 47 publications re-pinned and 92 values re-derived from the newly archived bytes, with the May vintage retained unchanged on the record.
The break is neither deepening nor unwinding. The share has sat within a tenth of a point of its record low in three of the last four windows -- May 2026 is 0.10 points above it -- while the U.S.-bound level rises, so the one-year fall is now narrowing mostly because the base month it is measured against was itself depressed. The reallocation outside the bullion channel remains modest: about two-thirds of the rest-of-world rise is still the metals section.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The July 2026 trade record, at Statistics Canada's next scheduled monthly release.
Limit: All values are nominal, and partner shares are gross shipment values, not domestic value added. The record low is a near-tie inside the issuer's own revision movement, so which single month holds it can change with any revision. This reading is computed from the issuer's data tables; the issuer's own June narrative release was not captured this reading and is not quoted.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Site-wide corrections and wording amendments
Record-dated corrections: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. Material qualification notices: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. Minor wording notices: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11.
These notices change published explanations, claims or wording. They do not report new observations. Each link preserves what was wrong, the replacement and its effect.
- Dollarama geography and quarter length Qualification dated 2026-11-04. The Canadian store-count observation is retained. Consolidated sales are not a measure of Canadian discount spending or evidence of household motivation.
- Labour headcount comparison and annual window Identified 2026-10-27. The summary and shared claim explanation change. The September employment and population observations, annual ratio of 0.52 and earlier dated readings are unchanged.
- EI successor rules and historical expiry notice Identified 2026-10-27. The rule history is brought forward; the original regulation and original notice are preserved. No employment observation changes.
- Monthly trade reference periods Identified 2026-10-27. The date comparison changes. Trade values, statistical bases, legal dates and the daily counts are unchanged.
- Alberta statistical balance and legal compliance Identified 2026-10-27. The legal-compliance inference and its associated pace verdict are withdrawn. This correction does not adjudicate the separately registered Ontario and Quebec statistical trend proxies, whose basis classifications remain under the combined fiscal review. The statistical balance of 1.29% of GDP in 2024 is unchanged. This makes no finding about Alberta's actual compliance.
- Ontario and Quebec statistical balances beside fiscal-year promises Identified 2026-10-27. The pace inference is withdrawn for Ontario and Quebec. Statistical values are unchanged. This makes no finding about actual provincial compliance.
- US Monitor overview reference periods Identified 2026-10-27. This completes the overview counterpart of the October 27 panel-date correction. Statistical values and legal dates are unchanged; no tariff-effect inference is made.
Material corrections and withdrawals in the evidence log
- Dated 2026-11-10: Two previously admitted selected findings are withdrawn from current use after recomputation: the Quebec balance streak and the earlier employment level-shift window. Their historical receipts remain available. Limit: Withdrawal does not erase the prior source edition or establish a causal explanation. A new selected window requires its own examination before admission.
- Minor wording amendment — IRCC method limits Correction dated 2026-10-28. Wording only. No observation, calculation policy, precision or analytical conclusion changes.
This calendar retains the log’s original check date. Dates and then-future descriptions below are not a new check of an issuer’s schedule.
Official releases that could change the answer — next 14 days
| Date | Issuer | Release | What it could change | Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Statistics Canada | Building permits, September 2026 Confirmed date | The next unadjusted dwelling-unit count and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s October 14 August permits release. | Canadian Capacity Monitor · Housing shortage (Big Question) |
| 2026-11-16 | Statistics Canada | Consumer Price Index, October 2026 Confirmed date | The matched-month price, rent, core and wage comparison. Date stated in the September issuer release captured October 19. | Housing shortage (Big Question) · The price of everything: one headline rate, and the components underneath it |
Just beyond 14 days
| Date | Issuer | Release | What it could change | Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-27 | Statistics Canada | National Accounts (GDP and gross fixed capital formation), Q3 2026 Provisional — typical cadence | Whether the turn in real GDP per person holds for a second quarter, whether output per worker keeps adding, and whether the per-person level finally passes its 2022 Q3 record; on the capital side, a third quarter of 2026 investment, still one quarter short of a calendar year. The issuer may also restate the two quarters this release just settled. Date provisional: it follows the issuer's observed quarterly cadence of publishing about two months after the quarter ends, and no source captured for these readings pins it. | Investment into productivity (Big Question) · Living standards (Big Question) · The capital behind each worker: the investment record, and the productivity record beside it · The anatomy of Canadian living standards |
| 2026-12-08 | Statistics Canada | Canadian international merchandise trade, October 2026 Confirmed date | The next matched trade month and historical revisions. Date stated in the captured November 4 issuer article. | US Exposure Monitor · Sell beyond the us (Big Question) · Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went |
| 2026-12-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections report and target-accounting-basis update (adds the 2024 accounting-basis observation) Provisional — typical cadence | The delivered-share and pace-ratio readings on the target-accounting basis, the With Measures/With Additional Measures 2030 projections and their gap to the target band, and the 2026 interim-objective scenario check -- the principal settlement event for this Brief's first re-reading. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2026-12-31 | Environment and Climate Change Canada / UNFCCC | Canada's second Biennial Transparency Report (statutory Paris Agreement deadline) Confirmed date | Corroborates or updates the LULUCF accounting-contribution methodology and the target-accounting statements this Brief cites; carried unresolved if it lands before this Brief can ingest it. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2027-04-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | National Inventory Report, next edition (adds the 2025 gross-inventory observed year) Provisional — typical cadence | The gross-inventory basis's delivered-share and pace-ratio readings, the seven-sector ledger, and the moving-baseline chapter's own comparison; a full re-ingest of the new vintage with the prior vintage preserved, revision separated from new-year movement. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2027-12-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Statutory progress report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, next edition Provisional — typical cadence | The official-assessment quotations this Brief cites and the secondary sector indicators; never a verdict source by itself. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
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