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Canadian Capacity Monitor

Population pressure is easing; current housing completions are now visible for metropolitan areas, while national net additions remain unresolved. The labour market carries a coordinated shift, and federal fiscal room remains under sustained pressure.

This page brings population, housing, jobs and federal finances together. Measured facts and inferred readings stay separate. It shows where institutions disagree and where data is missing or out of date. It does not combine them into one score.

Re-affirmedLast checked 2026-09-04Evidence through 2026-08-10Receipt for this Monitor — sources, method, limitations
Demand pressurePressure easingDeclining · observedEvidence ↓Physical capacityCurrent completions; national gap unresolvedMixed · observedEvidence ↓Workforce capacityCoordinated shift, direction mixedMixed · observedEvidence ↓Fiscal roomUnder sustained pressureDeclining · observedEvidence ↓

4 sections, one question each. Select a card for its evidence.

What this release changed

A dated check has been recorded since the first reading — see the watch, below, for what changed, what held, and what remains unresolved.

Is Canada's institutional, physical, fiscal, and labour capacity keeping pace with the demands being placed upon it?

Explore the visual record

CapacityMeasuredContestedBlocked

What Measured, Contested and Blocked mean →

Evidence cutoff 2026-08-10 · 1 directly observed · 4 correlated or inferred · 5 unresolved — hover or use arrow keys to inspect a domain

State matrix

Demand pressureState Pressure easing
Domain
Demand pressure
State
Pressure easing
Direction
Declining
Confidence basis
Directly observed on the record's own population series, with two of three registered targets contested by their own pace tests
Distance to target
3 registered targets
Next release
Next quarterly population estimate and migration components (Statistics Canada, expected late September 2026)
Trigger
A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status
Limitation
One registered target has no continuous indicator and is tracked as proxy-only
Physical capacityState Current completions; national gap unresolved
Domain
Physical capacity
State
Current completions; national gap unresolved
Direction
Mixed
Confidence basis
Directly observed metropolitan construction counts; no comparable national net-additions measure
Distance to target
2 registered benchmarks
Next release
Next published CMHC housing-table edition, or a revision to a held edition. The release date is not confirmed in this reading.
Trigger
New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure
Limitation
Metropolitan gross completions are now observed; they do not measure national net additions, cancellations or occupancy. Permits and construction counts are separately observed stages, not linked cohorts.
Workforce capacityState Coordinated shift, direction mixed
Domain
Workforce capacity
State
Coordinated shift, direction mixed
Direction
Mixed
Confidence basis
Directly observed: nine independently-measured indicators each carrying their own structural break
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next Labour Force Survey release; this record holds no confirmed date for it. August 2026 is incorporated.
Trigger
A further break clustering in the same window, one of the labour breaks currently outside the cluster's window joining a future episode, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band
Limitation
Employment fell in the latest month even as the annual absorption ratio rose. The annual comparison moves past a low employment base and a narrowing population gain; it does not establish stronger current hiring. The cluster counts and locates a coordinated turn; it does not establish that one series moved another. Age (fifteen to twenty-four) is used throughout as a stated proxy for a worker starting their working life, which it is not precisely -- no fit-for-purpose recent-graduate, seniority-filtered, or NEET series exists on the record
Fiscal roomState Under sustained pressure
Domain
Fiscal room
State
Under sustained pressure
Direction
Declining
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the federal government's own successive fiscal-balance projections, plus the run tied for third-longest among deficit runs in the available quarterly record
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next government finance and GDP statistics (Statistics Canada, expected August–September 2026)
Trigger
The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking
Limitation
Figures are on a National Accounts basis, not the Public Accounts basis used in the federal budget itself
DomainStateDirectionConfidence basisDistance to targetNext releaseTriggerLimitation
Demand pressurePressure easingDecliningDirectly observed on the record's own population series, with two of three registered targets contested by their own pace tests3 registered targetsNext quarterly population estimate and migration components (Statistics Canada, expected late September 2026)A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace statusOne registered target has no continuous indicator and is tracked as proxy-only
Physical capacityCurrent completions; national gap unresolvedMixedDirectly observed metropolitan construction counts; no comparable national net-additions measure2 registered benchmarksNext published CMHC housing-table edition, or a revision to a held edition. The release date is not confirmed in this reading.New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measureMetropolitan gross completions are now observed; they do not measure national net additions, cancellations or occupancy. Permits and construction counts are separately observed stages, not linked cohorts.
Workforce capacityCoordinated shift, direction mixedMixedDirectly observed: nine independently-measured indicators each carrying their own structural breakNo registered target or benchmarkNext Labour Force Survey release; this record holds no confirmed date for it. August 2026 is incorporated.A further break clustering in the same window, one of the labour breaks currently outside the cluster's window joining a future episode, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical bandEmployment fell in the latest month even as the annual absorption ratio rose. The annual comparison moves past a low employment base and a narrowing population gain; it does not establish stronger current hiring. The cluster counts and locates a coordinated turn; it does not establish that one series moved another. Age (fifteen to twenty-four) is used throughout as a stated proxy for a worker starting their working life, which it is not precisely -- no fit-for-purpose recent-graduate, seniority-filtered, or NEET series exists on the record
Fiscal roomUnder sustained pressureDecliningDirectly observed: the federal government's own successive fiscal-balance projections, plus the run tied for third-longest among deficit runs in the available quarterly recordNo registered target or benchmarkNext government finance and GDP statistics (Statistics Canada, expected August–September 2026)The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breakingFigures are on a National Accounts basis, not the Public Accounts basis used in the federal budget itself

Cross-domain tensions

  • DefinitionalCMHC and the PBO estimate different national housing needs. The current metropolitan gross-completion counts cannot establish progress against either national net-additions path.Within Physical capacity
  • TemporalA cooling population growth rate eases demand pressure just as the labour market underwent its own coordinated shift — two systems moving at once, not read here as cause and effect.Demand pressure ↔ Workforce capacity
  • Beyond this recordFederal fiscal room has narrowed while departmental funding plans elsewhere on the record continue to grow — a tension this Monitor states without adjudicating.Fiscal room ↔ the record beyond this Monitor

Evidence cutoff: 2026-08-10

Population, housing, labour and public finances are often discussed separately. This Monitor reads them together to show whether the systems Canada relies on are keeping up with demand. It keeps disagreements and missing data visible instead of hiding them inside one score.

Oldest member reading: as of 2026-04-01 · 14 cited sources · 1 directly observed · 4 correlated or inferred · 5 unresolved

How to read the dates: the evidence cutoff is the date through which Countability checked evidence for this Monitor. Each "as of" date shows when that specific figure was measured. "Oldest member reading" shows the age of the slowest-updating source. How to read the clock →

The watch

A Monitor is a maintained reading: it persists between releases and is re-checked when named evidence arrives. This is its history — every dated check, whether the answer changed or held.

Since the last reading

New periodEvidence 2026-09-04

Employment fell by 41,700 in August 2026. The unemployment rate held at 6.4 per cent, the employment rate slipped from 60.9 to 60.8 per cent, and youth unemployment rose from 12.6 to 12.9 per cent. Over the twelve months to August, employment nevertheless rose by 216,500 against 187,000 additional people aged 15 and over in the Labour Force Survey population estimate: 1.16 additional employed people per additional person, up from 1.00 over the year to July. The higher annual ratio does not mean August employment improved. August 2025 was a local employment low: its 61,700 decline from July 2025 is larger than this August's decline, raising the trailing annual employment gain by 20,000 despite the weaker current month; the annual population gain also narrowed from 197,300 to 187,000. These are different windows, and the ratio does not explain participation, hours, or the full-time/part-time mix. Re-running the existing descriptive detectors with August evidence places the employment level shift around September 2024, one month later than before, and the nine-indicator labour cluster in January-July 2024 instead of December 2023-June 2024. These moving-window findings locate changes in measured levels; they do not establish a cause. Earlier dated readings retain the windows and evidence they originally used.

Read the new period and prior comparison on their stated basis; preserve the previous dated reading.

The full check

What happened: Compared preserved issuer evidence against the prior reading; new observations and revisions are counted separately.

Limitation: Employment counts employed people, not jobs; the annual ratio compares changes in the age-15-and-over population and does not establish stronger current-month hiring.

Next trigger: The next issuer release or maintained capture for this product.

  1. 2026-09-04 · New period
    Employment fell by 41,700 in August 2026. The unemployment rate held at 6.4 per cent, the employment rate slipped from 60.9 to 60.8 per cent, and youth unemployment rose from 12.6 to 12.9 per cent. Over the twelve months to August, employment nevertheless rose by 216,500 against 187,000 additional people aged 15 and over in the Labour Force Survey population estimate: 1.16 additional employed people per additional person, up from 1.00 over the year to July. The higher annual ratio does not mean August employment improved. August 2025 was a local employment low: its 61,700 decline from July 2025 is larger than this August's decline, raising the trailing annual employment gain by 20,000 despite the weaker current month; the annual population gain also narrowed from 197,300 to 187,000. These are different windows, and the ratio does not explain participation, hours, or the full-time/part-time mix. Re-running the existing descriptive detectors with August evidence places the employment level shift around September 2024, one month later than before, and the nine-indicator labour cluster in January-July 2024 instead of December 2023-June 2024. These moving-window findings locate changes in measured levels; they do not establish a cause. Earlier dated readings retain the windows and evidence they originally used.
  2. 2026-08-28 · New period
    Statistics Canada's August 28 release revises the federal deficit for fiscal 2025-26 on the National Accounts basis from $44.823 billion to $47.636 billion, an increase of $2.813 billion. The revised annual estimate is 1.5 per cent of the GDP measure for the same four quarters. Separately, April-June 2026, the first quarter of fiscal 2026-27, records net borrowing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $57.964 billion, narrower than the revised $61.700 billion in January-March 2026, the last quarter of fiscal 2025-26. That new quarter is outside the year being revised. None of these is an audited Public Accounts settlement.
  3. 2026-08-25 · New reading
    Current metropolitan housing completions are now part of the record. The national shortage remains unresolved: these gross construction counts do not measure national net additions.
  4. 2026-08-10 · New reading
    Nine labour indicators shifted level together, inside one six-month window from December 2023 to June 2024. That published finding still stands, and the count is still nine -- but which nine has changed. With the new July data, total employment's own level shift now dates from August 2024, outside that window, so it drops out of the group. That indicator's shift is not published as its own separate reading, so where it was visible through the group, it is now not reported at all. Because total employment left the group, the measure of employment added per working-age person added now counts in its own right. It had been set aside before, because the series it is an arithmetic transform of was then in the group.
  5. 2026-08-10 · New period
    One more month of labour data changes the absorption answer. Over the twelve months to July 2026, employment rose by 196,500 while the Labour Force Survey's working-age population estimate rose by 197,300. That is 1.00 jobs added for each additional working-age person, as published -- 0.996 before rounding. On the June window this record read 0.45. Employment growth has gone from covering under half of working-age population growth to coming within half a per cent of matching it.
  6. 2026-08-07 · Unchanged
    The July release added a month and restated nothing this record can see. This record compared its copy of the labour table from before the release with its copy from after. All 3,491 monthly values the two copies share are identical. Each of the ten series gained exactly one new month, and of the earlier months held on both sides, not one moved.
  7. 2026-08-07 · New period
    Employment growth is not what pushed the absorption ratio close to one. Over the twelve months to July 2026 the ratio reached 0.996. It got there because the number it divides by got much smaller: the year's gain in the Labour Force Survey's working-age population estimate fell from 715,000 to 197,300 — 72.4 per cent smaller. Employment grew 196,500 over that year. Over the twelve months to July 2025 it grew 293,200. So the ratio moved from 0.41 to almost 1.00 while the annual employment gain itself got smaller.
  8. 2026-08-07 · New period
    Youth unemployment was 12.6 per cent in July 2026 -- the lowest reading since February 2024, when it was 12.1 per cent. The share of people aged 15 to 24 in work was 55.4 per cent. No month since May 2024 has been that high; May 2024 was 55.4 per cent exactly, so July 2026 matches it rather than beating it. A year earlier, those two figures were 14.5 and 53.7 per cent.
  9. 2026-08-07 · New period
    The unemployment rate was 6.4 per cent in July 2026 -- its lowest reading since July 2024. It has now fallen for three months running: from 6.9 per cent in April, to 6.6, to 6.5, to 6.4. For people aged 25 to 54 it was 5.5 per cent. The share of everyone aged 15 and over in work was 60.9 per cent.
  10. 2026-07-19 · Unchanged
    The Canadian Capacity Monitor was checked again against a complete housing-starts update. Housing delivery still lags both independent benchmarks, and the gap against each widened slightly in the newest quarter. Every other row was rechecked against the same update, and no other row's answer moved: population pressure, the labour market, and federal fiscal room.
  11. 2026-07-11 · First reading

Next evidence

The named releases that could change a row of this Monitor, and what each could change.

Demand pressureNext release Next quarterly population estimate and migration components (Statistics Canada, expected late September 2026)
Row
Demand pressure
Next release
Next quarterly population estimate and migration components (Statistics Canada, expected late September 2026)
Could change
A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status
Physical capacityNext release Next published CMHC housing-table edition, or a revision to a held edition. The release date is not confirmed in this reading.
Row
Physical capacity
Next release
Next published CMHC housing-table edition, or a revision to a held edition. The release date is not confirmed in this reading.
Could change
New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure
Workforce capacityNext release Next Labour Force Survey release; this record holds no confirmed date for it. August 2026 is incorporated.
Row
Workforce capacity
Next release
Next Labour Force Survey release; this record holds no confirmed date for it. August 2026 is incorporated.
Could change
A further break clustering in the same window, one of the labour breaks currently outside the cluster's window joining a future episode, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band
Fiscal roomNext release Next government finance and GDP statistics (Statistics Canada, expected August–September 2026)
Row
Fiscal room
Next release
Next government finance and GDP statistics (Statistics Canada, expected August–September 2026)
Could change
The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking
RowNext releaseWhat it could change
Demand pressureNext quarterly population estimate and migration components (Statistics Canada, expected late September 2026)A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status
Physical capacityNext published CMHC housing-table edition, or a revision to a held edition. The release date is not confirmed in this reading.New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure
Workforce capacityNext Labour Force Survey release; this record holds no confirmed date for it. August 2026 is incorporated.A further break clustering in the same window, one of the labour breaks currently outside the cluster's window joining a future episode, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band
Fiscal roomNext government finance and GDP statistics (Statistics Canada, expected August–September 2026)The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking

All upcoming evidence on Now →

Demand pressure

How fast population and migration flows are growing against the physical stock built to hold them.

MeasuredContestedBlockedas of 2026 Q2
OBSERVED

People added per housing start: all-time low (-0.7 in 2026 Q2)

The latest value of people added per housing start (-0.7, 2026 Q2) is the lowest in the series history since 2007 (76 quarters of data). A record marks where the series sits in its own history; it carries no causal claim.

Technical details
Method: Latest value compared against the full series history; ties count as records.
Source: Statistics Canada — Population estimates, quarterly · Statistics Canada / CMHC — Housing starts, all areas, SAAR
On pace

Reduce Canada's temporary population to less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, supplementary information.

Latest observed: 6.18 (2026 Q2) against target 5.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07
Behind pace

Stabilize permanent resident admissions at 380,000 per year for 2026-2028

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

Latest observed: 146,810 (5 months to May 2026) against target 380,000.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07
No pace verdict

New temporary resident arrivals of 385,000 in 2026 (370,000 in 2027 and 2028)

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

Latest observed: — against target 385,000.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07

Physical capacity

How much housing is authorized, started, under construction and completed—and what these separately observed stages can tell us about delivery.

ContestedBlockedas of Jun 2026
ModuleHousing Delivery
What can we observe between permission to build and a completed home?
What would change it: The next CMHC edition, revised counts or clarified coverage; a national net-additions measure would allow a different benchmark comparison.

Housing evidence · Assessed 2026-09-08

From permission to completion

18,797 homes completed in metropolitan areas in July 2026.

Current completions are now visible in CMHC’s metropolitan-area tables. This narrows our earlier data gap; it does not tell us whether Canada’s national housing shortage is closing.

Four separate observations, not the same homes moving through a funnel. Permits cover Canada; the other three measures below cover CMHC’s metropolitan-area tables. All are unadjusted dwelling counts.

01 · Authorized

25,382

May 2026

Canada · permits issued during the month. Permission to build does not establish a start.

Source and definition ↓

02 · Started

16,374

July 2026

Metropolitan areas · construction began during the month. This is a flow.

Source and definition ↓

03 · Under construction

362,059

End of July 2026

Metropolitan areas · unfinished units at month end. This is a stock, not a monthly flow.

Source and definition ↓

04 · Completed

18,797

July 2026

Metropolitan areas · gross completions during the month. Not net of demolitions or conversions.

Source and definition ↓

A completion is a construction milestone, not proof of occupancy; CMHC can count a unit with up to 10% of work unfinished. These observations do not measure cancellations or a permit-to-completion success rate.

What kind of homes were completed?

Selected metropolitan areas, July 2026. Each bar shows the mix within that area, not its share of Canada. Rental is the intended market; it does not establish affordability or who moved in.

HomeownershipRentalCondoCo-opUnclassified
Halifax116Homeownership: 53 · Rental: 63 · Condo: 0 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Montréal3,403Homeownership: 213 · Rental: 2,412 · Condo: 778 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Toronto1,009Homeownership: 533 · Rental: 28 · Condo: 448 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Calgary1,879Homeownership: 713 · Rental: 912 · Condo: 254 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Edmonton1,729Homeownership: 661 · Rental: 1,053 · Condo: 15 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Vancouver2,123Homeownership: 147 · Rental: 1,545 · Condo: 431 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Read the metropolitan totals and earlier edition
Unadjusted dwelling units; separate flow and stock measures
MonthStartsUnder construction
at month end		Completions
June 202618,299364,50817,588
July 202616,374362,05918,797

Each edition is retained separately. These unadjusted monthly observations do not establish a trend or a cancellation rate.

What the national benchmarks mean

The CMHC and Parliamentary Budget Officer paths are separate models of national net additions. The monthly, metropolitan gross counts above cannot be used to calculate progress against either one.

  • CMHC (2025-06): about 478,000 net completions per year. Restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon
  • PBO (2025-08): about 290,000 net completions per year. Return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035)
What remains missing—and what changed

Before this update, Countability’s three Statistics Canada completion series ended in 2022. They still do. Direct CMHC Excel files now provide a reproducible route to current metropolitan counts.

The broader provincial totals include smaller-centre observations despite notes saying completions are collected only in metropolitan areas plus Charlottetown. We use the explicitly labelled metropolitan tables and leave that wider coverage conflict unresolved. The 2023 geography change prevents a simple splice onto the older record.

National net additions, matching conversions and demolitions, cancellations, and linked permit-to-occupancy cohorts remain unavailable on a verified comparable basis in this reading.

Sources, dates and exact observations

Permits: Statistics Canada, table 34-10-0292-01; May 2026, Canada, new dwellings, unadjusted. Existing held series; not refreshed by this CMHC update.

Construction stages workbook, June 2026 · Published 2026-07-30. Archived copy SHA-256: c83f300be909ae7aa94a2e6c33486dc4e38a141e1f3a609d4ea403cbea9a4d0d

June 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.

Construction stages workbook, July 2026 · Published 2026-08-25. Archived copy SHA-256: 79354815f627c24dd246d90c91f7cc7151f089f1964e39cb3704592a55779012

Intended market workbook, July 2026 · Published 2026-08-25. Archived copy SHA-256: e0d01da6380737d3b8ea981e7deaa344de45ebd8bea4e89a84f401b22d1061be

July 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.

Halifax intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C17; Rental: Table F5-4!D17; Condo: Table F5-4!E17; Co-op: Table F5-4!F17; Not Available: Table F5-4!G17; Total: Table F5-4!H17.

Montréal intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C26; Rental: Table F5-4!D26; Condo: Table F5-4!E26; Co-op: Table F5-4!F26; Not Available: Table F5-4!G26; Total: Table F5-4!H26.

Toronto intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C42; Rental: Table F5-4!D42; Condo: Table F5-4!E42; Co-op: Table F5-4!F42; Not Available: Table F5-4!G42; Total: Table F5-4!H42.

Calgary intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C10; Rental: Table F5-4!D10; Condo: Table F5-4!E10; Co-op: Table F5-4!F10; Not Available: Table F5-4!G10; Total: Table F5-4!H10.

Edmonton intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C13; Rental: Table F5-4!D13; Condo: Table F5-4!E13; Co-op: Table F5-4!F13; Not Available: Table F5-4!G13; Total: Table F5-4!H13.

Vancouver intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C44; Rental: Table F5-4!D44; Condo: Table F5-4!E44; Co-op: Table F5-4!F44; Not Available: Table F5-4!G44; Total: Table F5-4!H44.

Tabular observations — Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Starts, Completions and Under Construction; Starts and Completions by Intended Market, June 2026, July 2026. This information is reproduced and distributed on an “as is” basis with the permission of CMHC.

Charts and comparisons — Adapted from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Starts and Completions Survey tables, June 2026, July 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation of this product.

INFERRED

CMHC's 2025-06 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts

Canada started 255,061 homes in the 4 quarters to 2026 Q2 (actual, all areas). CMHC's 2025-06 modelled benchmark — restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon — implies ~478,000 net completions per year over 2025-2035. The comparison crosses unit bases: the benchmark is completions-denominated, but official all-areas WDS completions end in 2022 (latest annual figure: 219,942 in 2022). Direct CMHC metropolitan completion counts are now held, but they are gross monthly units on narrower geography, not this national net-additions basis. Current starts are shown as context, not compliance. The benchmark is a model with stated assumptions, not an observation; the rival benchmark differs by 3.8× on definitions alone (see the housing baseline conflict).

Technical details
Method: Trailing 4-quarter sum of actual housing starts ÷ CMHC benchmark annual rate × 100. Benchmark from cmhc-supply-gap-2025 (2025-06), taken as published; unit-basis mismatch stated.
Source: Statistics Canada / CMHC — Housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly · CMHC — Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework (2025, modelled benchmark)
INFERRED

PBO's 2025-08 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts

Canada started 255,061 homes in the 4 quarters to 2026 Q2 (actual, all areas). PBO's 2025-08 modelled benchmark — return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035) — implies ~290,000 net completions per year over 2025-2035. The comparison crosses unit bases: the benchmark is completions-denominated, but official all-areas WDS completions end in 2022 (latest annual figure: 219,942 in 2022). Direct CMHC metropolitan completion counts are now held, but they are gross monthly units on narrower geography, not this national net-additions basis. Current starts are shown as context, not compliance. The benchmark is a model with stated assumptions, not an observation; the rival benchmark differs by 3.8× on definitions alone (see the housing baseline conflict).

Technical details
Method: Trailing 4-quarter sum of actual housing starts ÷ PBO benchmark annual rate × 100. Benchmark from pbo-housing-gap-2025 (2025-08), taken as published; unit-basis mismatch stated.
Source: Statistics Canada / CMHC — Housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly · PBO — Household Formation and the Housing Stock: Estimating the Housing Gap in 2035 (modelled benchmark)
Evidence gap

How many homes is Canada actually completing right now?

What is missing: Narrowed September 8, 2026: a documented CMHC Excel route now supplies reproducible June and July 2026 metropolitan starts, under-construction stocks and gross completions, with July intended-market detail. The three held Statistics Canada completion mirrors still end in 2022. The broader CMHC provincial totals include smaller-centre values despite conflicting survey-coverage notes, so this reading uses the explicitly labelled metropolitan tables. A current, verified all-areas completion series and national net-additions measure remain outside the comparable evidence held here.

Consequence: The machine-readable-route branch of the original closing criterion is met for metropolitan counts. This is a narrowing, not restoration of all-areas coverage or a national benchmark-compliance measure. Gross monthly completions on metropolitan geography cannot be divided by either institution’s national annual net-additions benchmark. Cancellation and occupancy outcomes remain separate gaps.

What would close it: Restoration of the post-2022 completions series in Statistics Canada's public data tables, or confirmation of a stable, documented, machine-readable CMHC source (e.g., a downloadable dataset or API distinct from the HMIP interactive portal) that Countability could collect automatically.
Evidence gap

How many authorized or started homes are cancelled before completion?

What is missing: No continuously updated machine-readable cancellation count or rate is held on a verified comparable basis for this reading. The qualified CMHC construction tables report starts, stocks and completions; stock adjustments for cessation or unit-count changes do not isolate cancellations. The separately unfetched Market Absorption Survey concerns absorption after completion, not pre-completion cancellation; it is not activated by this source admission.

Consequence: The Housing Delivery module now observes separate construction stages. It still cannot measure a cancellation rate, a linked permit-to-completion conversion rate or occupancy. Missing cancellations are never imputed as zero; broader source discovery remains open under the registered criterion.

What would close it: CMHC, a provincial regulator, or a municipal permitting authority publishing a continuously updated, machine-readable cancellation count or rate for authorized or started residential units.
CMHCvintage 2025-06

Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework

Restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon annual rate 478,000; cumulative 2,600,000.

Source: CMHC publication · accessed 2026-07-07
PBOvintage 2025-08

Household Formation and the Housing Stock: Estimating the Housing Gap in 2035 (RP-2526-007-S)

Return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035) annual rate 290,000; cumulative 690,000.

Source: PBO publication · accessed 2026-07-08
Institutions disagreemagnitude 3.8x

How many additional homes does Canada need by 2035?

CMHC: 2,600,000 additional units by 2035

Units needed to restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035; implies ~478,000 net completions per year (range 430,000-480,000) → source

PBO: 690,000 additional units by 2035

Units needed to return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 average (6.4%) by 2035 and absorb suppressed household formation; implies ~290,000 completions per year → source

Why they differ: Different target definitions, not different data: CMHC models the supply needed to restore a chosen affordability level; PBO models the supply needed to normalize vacancy rates and absorb suppressed households. PBO's report states that CMHC's target would imply a ~13% total vacancy rate, which PBO characterizes as abnormally high.

Countability’s position: None. Actual construction is tracked against both paths, each in its own units, with each issuer's definition displayed.

Workforce capacity

Whether employment is expanding in step with the population growth placing demand on it -- and whether it is getting harder to start a working life, cyclically or structurally.

as of Aug 2026

Wages and prices · Through July 2026

Has hourly pay kept up with prices?

Canada · employees aged 15 and older · all industries, full- and part-time.

Average hourly pay, adjusted for consumer prices, was 3.9% above January 2019.

Different months of the year: this runs from January 2019 to July 2026. Seasonal patterns may affect the comparison; neither series is seasonally adjusted.

Over the year to July 2026, hourly pay changed by +2.8% and consumer prices by +3.0%. After adjusting for prices, the change was −0.2%. Comparing the same month a year apart reduces the seasonal mismatch.

This describes average employee hourly pay, not the experience of the same workers over time. Changing jobs, industries and the mix of full-time and part-time workers can move the average. It does not tell us whether households can afford more.

Hourly pay

+32.2%

Average wage in current dollars · January 2019 to July 2026

Consumer prices

+27.2%

All-items CPI · January 2019 to July 2026

Pay adjusted for prices

+3.9%

Exact wage-to-price ratio · January 2019 to July 2026

Two levels, one starting point

Both lines start at 100 in January 2019. A value of 120 means a 20% rise since that month. These are levels; inflation and wage growth describe how fast those levels change.

Average hourly payConsumer prices
Average hourly wages and consumer prices, January 2019 equals 100Monthly, unadjusted national indices through July 2026. Solid line: average hourly wages. Dashed line: all-items consumer prices. Exact source levels and indices are in the expandable table below.90100110120130140January 2019July 2026Average hourly wages and consumer prices, January 2019 equals 100Monthly, unadjusted national indices through July 2026. Solid line: average hourly wages. Dashed line: all-items consumer prices. Exact source levels and indices are in the expandable table below.90100110120130140January 2019July 2026

Canada; monthly, not seasonally adjusted. January 2019 is a fixed starting point before the pandemic, not a seasonal adjustment. Choosing another base month changes the longer comparison. A rise in average pay can also reflect a change in who is employed.

Latest levels: average hourly wage $37.17; all-items CPI 169.9 (2002 = 100), July 2026. The wage figure is an average, not a median, and is before tax.

What changed since the previous month?

The annual price-adjusted change was +0.5% over the year to June 2026, compared with −0.2% over the year to July 2026. These are overlapping twelve-month comparisons, not one-month growth.

This level comparison was added on September 8, 2026. The existing wage-minus-inflation reading remains a difference in percentage points. This separate addition divides wage growth factors by price growth factors; the two methods must not be spliced.

Read the exact monthly observations
Unadjusted monthly observations; indices use January 2019 = 100
MonthHourly wage ($)CPI (2002=100)Wage indexPrice indexPrice-adjusted wage index
July 202637.17169.90132.18127.17103.94
June 202637.20169.00132.29126.50104.58
May 202637.24169.60132.43126.95104.32
April 202637.77168.00134.32125.75106.81
March 202637.73167.40134.17125.30107.08
February 202637.56165.90133.57124.18107.56
January 202637.17165.00132.18123.50107.03
December 202537.06165.00131.79123.50106.71
November 202537.00165.40131.58123.80106.28
October 202537.06165.30131.79123.73106.52
September 202536.78164.90130.80123.43105.97
August 202536.31164.80129.13123.35104.68
July 202536.16164.90128.59123.43104.18
June 202536.01164.40128.06123.05104.07
May 202536.14164.30128.52122.98104.51
April 202536.13163.40128.49122.31105.05
March 202536.05163.50128.20122.38104.76
February 202536.14163.00128.52122.01105.34
January 202535.99161.30127.99120.73106.01
December 202435.83161.20127.42120.66105.60
November 202435.73161.80127.06121.11104.92
October 202435.79161.80127.28121.11105.09
September 202435.61161.10126.64120.58105.02
August 202435.19161.80125.14121.11103.33
July 202434.99162.10124.43121.33102.55
June 202434.91161.40124.15120.81102.76
May 202434.94161.50124.25120.88102.79
April 202434.93160.60124.22120.21103.33
March 202434.81159.80123.79119.61103.49
February 202434.82158.80123.83118.86104.18
January 202434.76158.30123.61118.49104.33
December 202334.46158.30122.55118.49103.42
November 202334.29158.80121.94118.86102.59
October 202334.10158.60121.27118.71102.15
September 202334.03158.50121.02118.64102.01
August 202333.50158.70119.13118.79100.29
July 202333.25158.10118.24118.3499.92
June 202333.13157.20117.82117.66100.13
May 202333.26157.00118.28117.51100.65
April 202333.37156.40118.67117.07101.37
March 202333.13155.30117.82116.24101.35
February 202333.17154.50117.96115.64102.00
January 202333.03153.90117.46115.19101.97
December 202232.68153.10116.22114.60101.41
November 202232.72154.00116.36115.27100.94
October 202232.53153.80115.68115.12100.49
September 202232.39152.70115.18114.30100.78
August 202231.93152.60113.55114.2299.41
July 202231.66153.10112.59114.6098.25
June 202231.80152.90113.09114.4598.81
May 202231.65151.90112.55113.7098.99
April 202231.74149.80112.87112.13100.67
March 202231.45148.90111.84111.45100.35
February 202231.48146.80111.95109.88101.88
January 202231.62145.30112.45108.76103.39
December 202131.20144.00110.95107.78102.94
November 202130.95144.20110.06107.93101.97
October 202130.88143.90109.82107.71101.95
September 202130.88142.90109.82106.96102.67
August 202130.45142.60108.29106.74101.45
July 202130.36142.30107.97106.51101.36
June 202130.31141.40107.79105.84101.84
May 202130.55141.00108.64105.54102.94
April 202130.74140.30109.32105.01104.10
March 202130.49139.60108.43104.49103.77
February 202130.64138.90108.96103.97104.80
January 202130.75138.20109.35103.44105.71
December 202030.20137.40107.40102.84104.43
November 202030.14137.70107.18103.07103.99
October 202030.26137.50107.61102.92104.56
September 202030.06136.90106.90102.47104.32
August 202029.88137.00106.26102.54103.62
July 202029.96137.20106.54102.69103.75
June 202030.29137.20107.72102.69104.89
May 202030.97136.10110.14101.87108.11
April 202031.14135.70110.74101.57109.03
March 202029.88136.60106.26102.25103.93
February 202029.09137.40103.45102.84100.59
January 202028.95136.80102.95102.40100.54
December 201928.64136.40101.85102.1099.76
November 201928.66136.40101.92102.1099.83
October 201928.66136.60101.92102.2599.68
September 201928.62136.20101.78101.9599.84
August 201928.10136.8099.93102.4097.59
July 201928.13137.00100.04102.5497.55
June 201928.26136.30100.50102.0298.51
May 201928.11136.6099.96102.2597.77
April 201928.18136.00100.21101.8098.44
March 201928.13135.40100.04101.3598.71
February 201928.16134.50100.14100.6799.47
January 201928.12133.60100.00100.00100.00
Sources, calculation and limits

Canada; all employees, both full- and part-time, all industries, age 15+; unadjusted average hourly wage and all-items CPI; January 2019 = 100.

The fixed January 2019 comparison can end in a different calendar month; seasonal patterns may affect that difference because neither series is seasonally adjusted. Same-month annual comparisons reduce this mismatch but do not control for a changing employee mix. The employee mix can change. This is not median pay, a fixed-worker wage increase, take-home pay, annual household income or household purchasing power. Hours, taxes and individual spending baskets are not measured here.

Price-adjusted change (%) = 100 × [(ending wage ÷ starting wage) ÷ (ending CPI ÷ starting CPI) − 1]. We calculate from the source levels before rounding. The wage and price indices are shown to two decimals and changes to one decimal.

Statistics Canada: Employee wages · v2132579 · observations held through July 2026; captured 2026-08-10. Archived copy SHA-256: c15a64f5848deea1f901a72db7ad5c5c3b60fea7338f41b462c792f6f660b6e2

Statistics Canada: All-items consumer prices · v41690973 · observations held through July 2026; captured 2026-08-18. Archived copy SHA-256: e9797ae9b0208f70378e39456f510eee049ad72281e2179c4d645bb69f8cf42b

Adapted from Statistics Canada, tables 14-10-0063-01 and 18-10-0004-01, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

The comparison advances only when both series have a verified observation for the same month. New source releases and revisions trigger a fresh calculation and source check; employment headlines alone do not update this panel.

ModuleEntry-Level Work
Is starting a working life getting harder, cyclically or structurally?
What would change it: The youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band
OBSERVED

Average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted): level shift detected around Nov 2024

A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months places the largest level shift in average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted) around Nov 2024: mean 4.99 before vs 3.57 after (shift = 3.6× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.

Technical details
Method: Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.
Source: Statistics Canada — Employee wages by industry, monthly, unadjusted
OBSERVED

9 labour indicators shifted level within 6 months (Jan 2024–Jul 2024)

A two-segment mean-shift scan locates a structural level shift in 9 independent labour indicators inside a 6-month window (Jan 2024 to Jul 2024): Employment rate, age 15+ (SA); Employment rate, age 15-24 (SA); Job vacancy rate; Part-time share of employment (SA); Participation rate, age 15+ (SA); Public-sector share of employment (SA); Unemployment rate (SA); Unemployment rate, age 15-24 (SA); Unemployment rate, age 25-54 (SA). Of these, 4 shifted down and 5 shifted up. The detector locates the shifts and counts them; it does not attribute a cause, and a coordinated turn is not evidence that one series moved another. 'Independent' here means only that a member is not a direct arithmetic transform of another member in this cluster -- it is not a statistical independence test, and members may still share source surveys, definitions, or economic mechanisms.

Technical details
Method: Count of structural breaks sharing a domain and granularity whose break dates fall inside one 6-month sliding window; members that are arithmetic transforms of another member are excluded from the independent count. Gate: >= 3 members and >= 3 independent members.
Source: Statistics Canada — Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted · Statistics Canada — Employment by class of worker, monthly, seasonally adjusted · Statistics Canada — Job vacancies, payroll employees, job vacancy rate, and average offered hourly wage, monthly, seasonally adjusted
CORRELATED

Employment, age 15+ (SA) and Population growth, % y/y moved in opposite directions over the 12 quarters to 2026-04 (r=-0.83). Correlation is not causation.

  • Co-movement and timing statements do not attribute causality.
  • Identified from a curated list of series pairs, not a search over all series.
CORRELATED

Movements in Employment, age 15+ (SA) have tended to precede movements in Population growth, % y/y by about 4 quarters in this window (lagged r=-0.87 vs contemporaneous r=-0.53). This is a timing pattern only — an observed pattern, not a causal claim.

  • Co-movement and timing statements do not attribute causality.
  • Identified from a curated list of series pairs, not a search over all series.

Fiscal room

The federal government's own successive fiscal-balance projections for the current year, held on the record until the audited outcome settles.

OBSERVED

Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR): 13 consecutive quarters at a negative level

Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR) has been negative for 13 consecutive quarters, beginning in 2023 Q2. The latest reading is −$57,964,000,000 in 2026 Q2. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.

Technical details
Method: Count consecutive quarters with a negative level, most recent backward; reported only from 6 consecutive quarters onward.
Source: Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis)
Finance CanadaResolution

The federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2025-26, across four Finance Canada projection vintages, before the audited Public Accounts settle it

Canada's federal budgetary balance (surplus/deficit) for fiscal year 2025-26, as the Department of Finance Canada's own summary fiscal outlook stated it in four successive publications -- Budget 2024, the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, Budget 2025, and the Spring Economic Update 2026 -- each read from that publication's own headline fiscal table. No audited outcome exists yet: the Public Accounts of Canada for 2025-26 will settle this fiscal year in autumn 2026, and this entry pins the projection lineage on the record before that settlement, adjudicating none of it.

Fiscal 2025-26: Budget 2024 projection vs. FES 2024 projection

comparable · difference -3.3 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. A negative number means the later projection is a larger deficit t…

Fiscal 2025-26: FES 2024 projection vs. Budget 2025 projection

comparable · difference -36.1 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. Same-issuer vintage comparison; no audited outcome exists yet. pct…

Fiscal 2025-26: Budget 2025 projection vs. SEU 2026 projection

comparable · difference 11.4 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. A positive number means the later projection is a smaller deficit …

Fiscal 2025-26: first projection (Budget 2024) vs. latest captured projection (SEU 2026)

comparable · difference -28.0 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the latest captured projected value minus the first projected value, for fiscal 2025-26, in billions of Canadian dollars (the cumulative movement across all three re-projections). This is the entry's …

Fiscal 2025-26: SEU 2026 projection vs. Fiscal Monitor unaudited year-end observation

comparable · difference 11.623 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the Fiscal Monitor's unaudited year-end observation minus Finance Canada's final pre-settlement projection, for fiscal 2025-26, in billions of Canadian dollars. A positive number means the observed ye…

  • No audited outcome exists yet. This entry is a pinned projection lineage, not a projection-vs-outturn resolution: every value is one of Finance Canada's own successive projections for fiscal 2025-26, and none is an observed or audited result. The Public Accounts of Canada for 2025-26 (expected autumn 2026, issued by the Receiver General) will settle this fiscal year; when it does, a later reading records the audited outcome and the projection-vs-outturn resolution steps -- nothing here is edited in place. The entry is registered now so the four first-published projections are on the record, hash-pinned, before the outcome that would otherwise reframe them exists.
  • Every value is restated exactly as Finance Canada first published it and none has been attested by an independent auditor. These two provenance axes are carried on every value so that, when the audited Public Accounts outcome is added, its own assurance and its own basis are stated on the same two axes and never silently conflated with these projections.
  • This entry compares Finance Canada against itself: the same headline quantity, the same fiscal year, four successive projection vintages of the same summary fiscal outlook. It is a projection-drift record, not a disagreement between institutions -- the pace and direction at which one issuer's own projection for a single year moved as it re-forecast. No direction of movement is described as more or less sound; the signed difference in billions is the disclosed comparison.
Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-10
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Access to care

Health · assessed 2026-09-09

A longer life. Uneven access to care.

Life expectancy has regained much of its pandemic decline. Provider attachment and unmet care needs show a different part of the picture, with meaningful variation across ages and provinces.

Life expectancy at birth82.16Years · Canada · 2024, preliminary
Have a regular care provider82.6%Adults 18+ · provinces · 2024
Report unmet care needs8.8%People 15+ · provinces · 2024

The access measures use different surveys and age groups. They cannot be added or treated as opposites. Provider wording changed in 2024; mortality estimates remain preliminary.

Access and life tables: 2024 · substance harms: through 2025

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Defence resources and readiness

Defence · assessed 2026-09-09

Reported spending. A separate test of readiness.

The department reports spending, staffing and persistent readiness gaps. These are separate measures of resources and delivery; their relationship cannot be reduced to a spending ratio.

DND programme spending$33.9BCanadian dollars · fiscal 2024–25
Force elements reported ready61.3%Recorded target: at least 90% · fiscal 2024–25
Occupations with critical shortfalls69.0%Higher is worse. Recorded target: at most 5% · fiscal 2024–25

Spending is nominal: not adjusted for inflation. Departmental results are self-reported. Fleet serviceability, personnel strength and project ratings do not share one denominator. Later spending plans are not later readiness results.

Results: fiscal 2024–25 · plans held through 2026–27

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Infrastructure delivery and the capital base

Infrastructure Delivery · assessed 2026-09-09

From a funding commitment to a working asset.

Canada’s infrastructure record has several layers: funded projects, the dates recipients report, and the wider capital base. Each reveals something useful about delivery. They cover different projects, years and owners.

Entries with a reported end16,967Of 20,423 HICC project entries; includes studies and plans
Public infrastructure investment$106.6B2025 · nominal Canadian dollars · all public industries
Latest reported project end2025-03-27The captured project file is older than the capital estimates

This is not a live construction dashboard. The September 9 capture is identical to July 25. Approved contributions are not cash spending; eligible costs are not final costs. A reported end can mean a completed study or plan, as well as an operational asset.

Project approvals: 2002–2025 · capital and asset-life estimates: 1981–2025

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Employer renewal, credit and financial distress

Business Dynamism & Credit · assessed 2026-09-09

A near-flat business count hides a busy economy.

Employers open, return and stop employing people every month. Read that movement alongside corporate borrowing, lenders’ conditions and formal insolvencies to see different parts of the business environment.

Active employer businesses936,9592026-05 · Canada · seasonally adjusted
Change from a year earlier-891-0.10% · same count series
Business insolvency filings4,74212 months to 2026-07 · bankruptcies and proposals under the BIA

An opening can be a returning employer. A closure can be temporary. Insolvency filings and corporate debt cover different populations from the employer counts; they cannot be divided into a common business failure rate or used to establish causes.

Employer dynamics: 2026-05 · corporate debt: 2026-06 · insolvencies: 2026-07 · lending survey: 2026 Q2

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Directly observed

Correlated or inferred

Unresolved

This page holds the current public record for this Monitor. For a more specific question, see Work with Countability.

Work with Countability