2026-11 — full dated evidence record

Budget 2026 projects a deficit of $62.3 billion for fiscal 2026–27, against $65.3 billion in the Spring Economic Update. Over five years the forecast improved by $158.3 billion before new decisions, and new commitments use $151.5 billion of that.

More on this: Where the budget lands: the federal fiscal position, the promises against it, and what the audited record settles →

Why it stands: The budget was tabled November 5. Figures are from Annex 1, Table A1.4, as published online and read on November 10.

The deficit path stays close to the spring path because new commitments took almost all of the forecast improvement.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The next monthly Fiscal Monitor, or the Parliamentary Budget Officer's analysis of the budget.

Limit: These are government projections on the Public Accounts basis, not outcomes. Five-year totals are sums of the published rounded figures.

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Goods exports to countries other than the United States rose by $49.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from a year earlier. Unwrought gold and other precious metals account for $25.8 billion of that, or 53%.

More on this: US Exposure Monitor →

Why it stands: Budget 2026 reports progress toward doubling non-U.S. exports by the end of 2035. Its figures reproduce on Statistics Canada's balance of payments data. The product split is from customs data, table 12-10-0182.

For all destinations together, export prices rose 9.7% and export volume did not change over the same nine months. For all destinations, the export price of the gold category rose 41%.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The October trade release, scheduled for December 8.

Limit: The budget's figures cover goods and services on a balance of payments basis. The gold share is for goods on a customs basis. Statistics Canada's export price and volume indexes cover all destinations together, so this record has no volume measure for non-U.S. exports alone.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from

Budget 2026 shows day-to-day spending covered by revenue in fiscal 2027–28, one year before the 2028–29 deadline, with a surplus of $11.2 billion. That figure includes $16.8 billion of estimated forgone tax revenue. Recorded revenue alone is $5.6 billion short of day-to-day spending in 2027–28.

More on this: Are Canada's governments meeting their own fiscal anchors? →

Why it stands: Annex 1, Table A1.6. The same add-back line was in Budget 2025, at $4.7 billion for 2027–28.

The result of this anchor cannot be read from the audited accounts alone.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The Parliamentary Budget Officer's analysis of the budget, or Public Accounts for fiscal 2027–28.

Limit: The budget states that forgone revenue is not recorded in the financial statements and is not observed directly. The split between capital and day-to-day spending is the government's own classification.

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Budget 2026 lowers its forecast of direct program spending by an average of $12.4 billion a year, or $62.0 billion from 2026–27 to 2030–31. The budget says the change does not change approved funding.

More on this: Where the budget lands: the federal fiscal position, the promises against it, and what the audited record settles →

Why it stands: Annex 1, Table A1.7, and the box "Updating the direct program expense forecast". The audited fiscal 2025–26 accounts show direct program spending $17.4 billion below the Budget 2025 plan. That comparison is with Budget 2025, not the spring update.

If departments spend on the schedule the spring forecast assumed, the deficits would be higher than projected.

Trigger recorded for this reading: Direct program expenses in the monthly Fiscal Monitor.

Limit: The budget gives one aggregate figure and does not attribute it to departments or programs. The table line also includes pension-valuation effects that the budget says are broadly offset in other lines; it does not give their size.

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Budget 2026 projects a cash requirement of $764.7 billion from 2026–27 to 2030–31, against deficits of $288.7 billion. Federal debt stays near 40% of the economy. Total liabilities rise from 72.5% to 79.3%.

More on this: Can Canada remain fiscally sustainable? →

Why it stands: Annex 1, Tables A1.8 and A1.11. Loans, investments and advances take $299.9 billion of the cash, and net purchases of assets take $178.9 billion.

The cash the government must raise is much larger than the deficit, because loans and asset purchases need cash and are not counted in the deficit.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The Debt Management Report, or the next fiscal update.

Limit: The shares for total liabilities are Countability calculations: the published dollar figure divided by the published nominal GDP level in Table A1.2. The government also gains assets over the period.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from

Budget 2026 shows core defence spending at 2.2% of the economy in fiscal 2026–27 and 2.6% in each year from 2027–28 to 2030–31, on a cash basis. NATO's pledge is 3.5% for core defence by 2035.

More on this: What does Canada's defence spending buy? →

Why it stands: Chapter 5, Table 5.1. The budget separately shows $50.4 billion to $58.3 billion a year of defence- and security-related funding. In each year that equals 1.5% of NATO's forecast of the economy, within rounding. The budget says Canada is on track to reach 5% by 2035; its tables stop at 2030–31.

The published plan shows the 1.5% part of the pledge in full and the core part 0.9 percentage points below its 2035 level in 2030–31, the last year its tables show.

Trigger recorded for this reading: NATO's next defence expenditure report.

Limit: These are the government's plans on its own count, using NATO's forecast of the economy. They are not NATO estimates. The table's note says it does not include future commitments.

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Canada assessed $14.1 billion in counter-tariffs on U.S. goods from March 4, 2025 to October 26, 2026. It remitted or relieved $8.9 billion. The net amount was $5.2 billion.

More on this: The Tariff Ledger →

Why it stands: Budget 2026, Annex 1. Budget 2025 and the Spring Economic Update gave earlier totals: $3.7 billion and $4.3 billion net.

Relief took 63% of the gross amount. The budget's revenue forecast assumes the counter-tariffs stay in place into fiscal 2027–28.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The government's next published total, at the next budget or fiscal update. Customs import duties in the monthly Fiscal Monitor include all duties and do not separate counter-tariffs.

Limit: The budget says the net figure remains subject to revision. These are Canadian duties on imports from the United States. They are not U.S. duties on Canadian goods.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on

Budget 2026 states goals that can be measured: 24,000 non-market housing starts a year, 200,000 homes through Build Canada Homes in the next decade, and 380,000 permanent residents a year from 2027 to 2029. It repeats the goal to double non-U.S. exports by the end of 2035.

More on this: Which public promises can actually be checked? →

Why it stands: Budget 2026, chapter 3 and the economic overview. Each goal is now registered with its source.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The next monthly housing starts, immigration and trade releases.

Limit: Countability has not yet identified a public series that counts non-market housing starts. That goal is registered without a progress reading.

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The U.S. share of Canada’s goods exports was 68.30% over the twelve months through September 2026, against 73.49% over the preceding twelve months. In September, U.S.-bound exports rose 0.7% while exports to other countries fell 1.1%.

More on this: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →

Why it stands: Statistics Canada released September trade on November 4; the primary table and issuer article were captured November 10. Both twelve-month windows are recomputed within this source edition.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: October merchandise trade, scheduled December 8; or an earlier qualified revision.

Limit: Balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted, nominal Canadian dollars. Customs, services and transport panels have different coverage and adjustment bases. Neither a monthly movement nor a lower rolling share identifies tariff effects or durable diversification. The legal assessment remains separately dated September 29.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the US Exposure Monitor · the Brief it reads from

October employment was 21,100,100, down 4,700 from September. The unemployment rate rose from 6.5% to 6.7%; youth unemployment rose from 13.0% to 13.7%. The employment rate moved from 60.6% to 60.5%.

More on this: Can Canada absorb its own population growth? →

Why it stands: The November 6 Labour Force Survey release supplies October observations; captured November 10. No selected earlier numerical LFS observation changed.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The next Labour Force Survey release or a revision to October observations.

Limit: These are sample estimates, not exact population counts or a causal account of immigration or policy. Small monthly movements should not be treated as established trends or statistically significant changes without the corresponding uncertainty evidence.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Canadian Capacity Monitor · the Brief it reads from

August vacancies were 507,220, compared with revised July vacancies of 502,030. The vacancy rate was 2.8% in both months.

More on this: Is it getting harder to start a working life in Canada? →

Why it stands: The October 29 source release adds August and revises six selected earlier monthly values across the vacancy count and rate; captured November 10.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: September vacancy estimates or a revision to the held monthly estimates.

Limit: The latest selected estimates carry the issuer’s A quality designation (excellent). Vacancies are surveyed unfilled positions, not a count of unemployed people or entry-level openings. Compare like monthly survey definitions; retain the prior edition.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Canadian Capacity Monitor

The provincial nominal GDP, government revenue, expenditure and balance series advance to calendar 2025, with revisions to 2023 and 2024. Current ratios and comparisons use the same new source edition.

More on this: Can Canada remain fiscally sustainable? →

Why it stands: The November 5 release adds one year to forty selected provincial series and revises eighty prior observations. The retained raw archive preserves both editions; earlier selected findings are not carried forward automatically.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: A revision to the provincial accounts or the next annual provincial release.

Limit: These National Accounts statistical balances are not provincial Public Accounts fiscal-year balances and cannot establish compliance with a province’s budget promise or legislation. The separately dated B.C. economic review retains its original inputs.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Canadian Capacity Monitor · the Brief it reads from

The registered electricity selling-price index increased from 136.1 in August to 136.7 in September.

Why it stands: Table 18-10-0204-01 was released November 10 and captured the same day. No selected prior numerical observation changed.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: The next issuer observation, revision or methodological clarification.

Limit: An index is not a household bill, a volume of electricity, generating capacity or deliverable grid supply. Keep this selling-price series distinct from consumer electricity prices and the separately dated capacity evidence.

Reads onto the Canadian Capacity Monitor

The audited annual operating deficit for fiscal 2025–26 is $39.316 billion, on the Public Accounts basis. Earlier projections and the unaudited March tally remain visible.

More on this: Does the federal budget land where it was promised? →

Why it stands: Public Accounts 2026 was tabled November 6. The annual balance was reconciled from the official machine-readable tables and the audited statement, captured November 10.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: Qualification of Budget 2026, or an amendment to the audited statements.

Limit: Includes net actuarial losses; excludes separately reported remeasurement gains and losses. This is not the National Accounts estimate, an operating-spending anchor, a NATO measure or a sustainability assessment.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from

Two previously admitted selected findings are withdrawn from current use after recomputation: the Quebec balance streak and the earlier employment level-shift window. Their historical receipts remain available.

More on this: Are Canada's governments meeting their own fiscal anchors? →

Why it stands: New observations and revised provincial accounts change which selected findings the deterministic engine emits. The newly selected employment window and labour cluster remain deferred; earlier admission is not transferred to them. The formerly featured Quebec record and B.C. timing relationship also no longer reproduce and are removed from the current fiscal investigation; neither was a separately effective admission. The retained Quebec lead-lag relationship still reproduces and remains a non-causal statistical comparison.

This dated successor updates the stated evidence; earlier readings and source editions remain available.

Trigger recorded for this reading: Independent examination and an explicit admission decision for a distinct successor finding.

Limit: Withdrawal does not erase the prior source edition or establish a causal explanation. A new selected window requires its own examination before admission.

Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Canadian Capacity Monitor