The Tariff Ledger
The United States has raised tariffs on Canadian goods more than once, Canada has announced counter-tariffs of its own and new support for workers and businesses, and the government's own fiscal plan rests on a forecast taken before the latest round existed.
Start here: Read the legal record → · See the analysis over the same evidence → · Follow the next releases →
The short version
The United States raised tariffs on Canadian goods again this year, under a different legal authority than the earlier round, on products each proclamation lists in its own annex. Those duties became legally effective in August under the proclamations themselves. Canada answered days later with counter-tariffs of its own on American goods, at a rate matched product by product to the American one, and with new support for affected workers and businesses; Canada's own measures become legally effective in September. The exact rates, the products each government named, and each effective date are reproduced immediately below, from the documents themselves. What comes next is a calendar, not a forecast: further down, this page sets out which official records arrive next and which of them can show anything at all about a period after each action. One thing has not been observed. This record has not seen duties assessed or collected on any shipment, and neither government publishes a running account of which exports are actually taxed, so no share of exports facing tariffs is stated anywhere on this page.
The tariff record itself
Both sides of the episode are held in two entries of this record's own ledger -- one for the earlier United States tariff actions, one for this year's round and Canada's answer to it. Below, each entry's published documents and its own figures are reproduced as that entry's own page carries them. Not everything is. The movement between vintages, each entry's lifecycle state, and its own qualifications -- which bound what may be said from it -- stay on the full entry, one link away, along with the rest of what its page carries.
President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) · fiscal
The ad valorem duty rates and effective dates the 2025 executive orders and section 232 proclamations state for imports from Canada: the general additional duty (25 percent, effective March 4, 2025; USMCA-preference goods excepted March 7; raised to 35 percent August 1), the 10 percent energy rate, and the separate automobile (25 percent), steel and aluminum (50 percent), and softwood timber and lumber (10 percent) actions. Dated context for the export record -- what changed, and when, in the primary documents' own words.
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 FR 9113 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-02-07 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 9113 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-02-07 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 9183 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-02-10 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 11785 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-03-11 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 37957 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-08-06 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 14705 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-04-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 24199 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-06-09 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| 90 FR 48127 | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2025-10-06 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 FR 9113 | Additional duty on products of Canada, effective 2025-03-04 | 25.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 90 FR 9113 | Additional duty on Canadian energy and energy resources, effective 2025-03-04 | 10.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 90 FR 37957 | Additional duty on products of Canada subject to the 25 percent rate, raised effective 2025-08-01 | 35.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 90 FR 14705 | Section 232 tariff on imported automobiles, effective 2025-04-03 | 25.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 90 FR 24199 | Section 232 tariff on steel and aluminum articles, raised effective 2025-06-04 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 90 FR 48127 | Section 232 duty on softwood timber and lumber, effective 2025-10-14 | 10.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register); Prime Minister of Canada (pm.gc.ca) and Department of Finance Canada (canada.ca) for the Canadian-government publications pinned here · fiscal
Three presidential proclamations under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, signed 2026-07-20, each imposing an additional 50 percent ad valorem duty on certain products of Canada set forth in that proclamation's own Annex II, on a discrimination predicate specific to each proclamation (alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles respectively), the section 232 and WTO civil-aircraft exclusions each proclamation states, each proclamation's own Annex I -- named once, in each proclamation's own additivity clause, as a possible exception to the rule that these duties stack with other duties, its contents not in the transcribed prose -- the scheduled-to-actual effective-date divergence a fourth proclamation created, and the Government of Canada's own 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-22 statements of retaliatory intent. This entry follows this record's earlier Resolution on the 2025 United States tariff actions on Canadian goods, and does not edit or supersede it Extended 2026-08-25 with the Department of Finance Canada's own concretization of Canada's retaliatory intent: the counter-tariff rate schedule (15, 25, and 50 percent, which the government states matches the corresponding U.S. rate for each product), its own $27.6 billion scope figure -- the release's own precise restatement of the earlier 'roughly $28 billion' figure, and, by the same announcement's dollar-for-dollar design, the matching value of the U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs will apply to -- an effective date of 2026-09-08, and a $7.5 billion support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses, on top of the government's own stated nearly $25 billion in supports over the prior 18 months.
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-07-23 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| 91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-07-23 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-07-23 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| 91 FR 54789 (document number 2026-17294) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-08-24 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 | Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister) | 2026-08-21 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| pm.gc.ca remarks, dated 2026-08-22 | Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister) | 2026-08-22 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25, list effective 2026-09-08 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11046's own Annex II (the alcoholic-beverage discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 11056 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992) | Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11047's own Annex II (the dairy discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 11056 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | Additional duty on certain Canadian products under the motor-vehicles proclamation (Proclamation 11048, Annex II), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 11056 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2024 through February 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11046 itself uses) | 718.0 US$ million | institutional estimate | — | — |
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2025 through February 2026 (Proclamation 11046's own comparison window) | 137.0 US$ million | institutional estimate | — | — |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2024 through March 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11048 itself uses) | 25.9 US$ billion | institutional estimate | — | — |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2025 through March 2026 (Proclamation 11048's own comparison window) | 20.3 US$ billion | institutional estimate | — | — |
| pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 | Value of Canadian goods the Prime Minister's statement (2026-08-21) states the U.S. tariff was about to apply to, and which Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation is scoped against | 28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis) | institutional estimate | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | The lowest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08, each product's rate matching the corresponding U.S. rate for that product | 15.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff) | benchmark | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | The middle of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- also the rate several existing Canadian counter-tariffs (including on U.S. autos) already carried before this schedule and continue to carry | 25.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff) | benchmark | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | The highest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- matching the 50 percent U.S. rate pinned elsewhere in this entry | 50.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff) | benchmark | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | Value of U.S. imports into Canada that the Department of Finance Canada's own 2026-08-25 news release states Canada's counter-tariffs apply to | 27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis) | institutional estimate | — | — |
| canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25 | The new and enhanced support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses the Government of Canada announced 2026-08-25 | 7.5 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in either document; see basis) | institutional estimate | — | — |
| canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25 | The government's own approximate cumulative figure for tariff-related support it states it provided in the 18 months before 2026-08-25 (the base the new $7.5 billion package is stated to build on) | 25.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated; the source's own word 'nearly' -- an approximate, not an exact, figure) | institutional estimate | — | — |
What arrives next, and what it can show
A tariff action and a measurement of trade run on two different clocks, and they are not in step. The rows below name the official records that arrive next, the period each one covers, and whether that period ends before an action, only partly follows it, or falls entirely after it. Each date also says where it comes from: the issuer's own schedule, this record's reading of the issuer's observed monthly cadence, or the document that states it. Where no source this record has captured pins a date, the row says so rather than estimating one.
| When | What arrives | What it can and cannot show |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 date stated in the document | Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective | Legally effective on this date under the Department of Finance Canada's own published schedule. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments. |
| 2026-10-06 issuer-stated date | Statistics Canada's monthly trade record for August Period covered: 2026-08-01 — 2026-08-31 |
|
| no date pinned | The first trade record covering the September reference month Period covered: 2026-09-01 — 2026-09-30 No source this record has captured pins a release date for the September reference month. |
|
What has not been observed
Something a reader would reasonably want from a tariff ledger is not in the public record at all. It is set out here the same way every absence is set out on this site: what is known, what is not observed, why that matters, what would close it, and which official record comes next.
What share of Canada's exports to the United States is actually subject to tariffs right now, and at what effective rates?
Known: The operative documents themselves are on the record, document by document: each United States proclamation's own additional rate, the products its own annex sets out, and the exclusions it states; the date those duties became legally effective; and Canada's own counter-tariff rate tiers, its own scope figure, and the date its counter-tariffs become legally effective. All of it is pinned in this record's Resolution on the 2026 United States tariff actions and Canada's answer to it.
Not observed: No official source on either side of the border publishes a continuously updated, machine-readable statement of the tariff status of Canadian exports. The operative documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but the duty actually applied to a shipment depends on USMCA qualification, product classification, exclusions, stacking rules, and later modifications — determinations spread across executive orders, proclamations, agency notices, and rulings, with no consolidated official series.
Why it matters: The U.S. Exposure Brief shows the export record beside the dated tariff actions, but it cannot state what fraction of U.S.-bound exports is tariffed or at what effective rate — any such coverage percentage would be an outside model, not a reading of the record. Public claims about 'x per cent of exports now face tariffs' rest on estimates whose assumptions are rarely published.
What closes it: Either government publishing a continuously updated, openly licensed series of duty collections or tariff coverage on Canada–U.S. trade at product grain — or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Next relevant record: No scheduled release closes this gap, because neither government publishes the series that would. Statistics Canada's monthly trade record — the next official record the exposure reading turns on — states the value of what crossed the border, not the duty assessed on it.
The fiscal plan the tariffs arrived after
Canada's government does not build its own economic forecast. It surveys outside economists, then builds its official fiscal update on top of that average. The survey behind the current update was taken in the spring, before this year's tariff round and before the new support package existed, so the projections resting on it could not have counted either one. That is the whole of what this episode says about the country's own books. The fiscal plan itself, the movement between its vintages, and the disagreement between the government's own projection and Parliament's independent one are a separate reading, linked below.
Spring Economic Update 2026 ("Canada Strong For All")
Government's own fiscal projection, reaffirming the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: (1) a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon, and (2) balancing day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29.
More on this: The federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2025-26, across four Finance Canada projection vintages, before the audited Public Accounts settle it → · Are Canada's governments meeting their own fiscal anchors? →
Source trail & method
- Spring Economic Update 2026 ("Canada Strong For All") — Finance Canada
- GDP, expenditure-based, quarterly — Statistics Canada
- Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis) — Statistics Canada
Every claim above states its own tier, confidence, and source. Correlation is reported as observed co-movement, never as cause. Where a required linkage is not public, the gap is declared rather than estimated across. This Deep Dive's editorial framing (section headings and connective text) introduces no numeral — every figure belongs to a member object shown in full on this site.
Where this sits in the record
- Big Question: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
- Big Question: Can Canada remain fiscally sustainable? →
- Brief: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Monitor: US Exposure Monitor →
This Deep Dive and its underlying question are published in full. See Work with Countability for a commissioned one.
Work with Countability