The topic filter applies to evidence readings below. Corrections and selected analyses cover the whole site.
How to read the clock → “Dated” is the original record date; the reading states its observation period. An evidence date is retained as recorded and does not by itself establish a publication or incorporation date. A layout change does not recheck the evidence.
Follow these updates · RSS feed
Selected analysis
Budget 2026: where the money for new commitments came from
The deficit for this fiscal year is close to the spring forecast. Under that figure, the forecast improved by $158 billion over five years and new commitments used $152 billion of it. This page traces the figures through the budget’s own tables.
Read from Budget 2026 as published on November 10, 2026. Figures are the budget’s own projections, not results.
Ottawa’s red-tape reset reaches far beyond paperwork
How Ottawa’s proposed changes could affect business restructuring, electricity storage, trade and development near airports.
Proposed changes, read from the first-reading bill. This is a dated analysis, not a current bill-status check.
British Columbia’s next growth test
Real output has more than doubled since the late nineties. Growth per resident is slower, the ports serve a national production base, and the pre-election fiscal plan leaves a large deficit.
The next post-election budget is not yet available to test the fiscal posture. Project announcements do not establish future production, royalties or net public benefits.
Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? · Recent record: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. The window follows recorded checks, material corrections and selected analyses. Qualification and wording notices do not move it.
Filter evidence readings by topic
Recent evidence readings
No evidence readings were recorded for this selection in this window. Showing the 4 most recent earlier readings instead; their dates remain below.
Change type and importance are separate editorial decisions. An issuer revision can be material or minor; a checked-unchanged reading is still a finding. Minor changes include housekeeping only when the recorded effect warrants that description.
Evidence update · Material change
CER's monthly electricity trade file now includes July 2026. Over August 2025 through July 2026 it records 39.286 TWh exported and 24.703 TWh imported, leaving net exports of 14.583 TWh. On the same window, its exports are 0.03% below Statistics Canada's US deliveries and imports are 0.04% below purchased US receipts. The issuers remain separate measurements.
More on this: Canada's electricity expansion: the projected pace and the delivered record →
Why it stands: A directed October 4 capture adds 148 July rows. All 44,774 previously held rows remain exact; no row is removed. Statistics Canada's corresponding component response is unchanged from the September 29 release and already reaches July. Both comparisons can now use the same July endpoint.
The common evidence window advances one month. This change does not resolve a discrepancy between issuers or prove a sustained trend in trade, reliability or delivered capacity.
Trigger recorded for this reading: A newer monthly CER trade file or a revision of either issuer's matching monthly observations.
Limit: These are physical electricity volumes from two different respondent collections. The percentage denominator is Statistics Canada's corresponding US flow. The CER edition issue date is not established; the capture date is not substituted for it. Net exports are a volume difference, not a trade value or reliability measure.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Correction · Material change
The climate page’s claim that no official observation existed after 2023 was too broad. The 2026 National Inventory Report includes gross emissions through 2024. The separate target-accounting series held here still ends in 2023.
More on this question: Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? →
Why it stands: The page combined two different clocks: gross inventory emissions and emissions on the target-accounting basis, which includes the land-use accounting contribution. The wording now identifies each series and its reference year.
Readers can see the newer inventory observation without treating it as an update to a different accounting measure. The dated correction is also recorded on the Corrections page.
Trigger recorded for this reading: A new official inventory or target-accounting release.
Limit: A later reference year on the gross inventory basis cannot simply replace the target-accounting value. Neither source measures emissions in the current calendar year.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Evidence update · Material change
Canada generated 634,612.2 GWh in the twelve months to July 2026, up 7,054.9 GWh, or 1.1%, from the preceding twelve months. The latest matched annual window is now higher; the earlier April window was slightly lower than a year earlier.
More on this: Canada's electricity expansion: the projected pace and the delivered record →
Why it stands: Statistics Canada’s September 29 release adds May, June and July without revising the shared generation observations. The current national and provincial comparisons move to July. Installed capacity still ends in 2024 and the CER Energy Future scenario files are unchanged. The CER cross-border panel advances separately to June, the latest month its captured file contains.
The newer window changes the near-term delivered-generation reading. It does not establish the sustained pace required by the official scenarios or explain why output changed. Generation, installed capacity, electricity trade and connection applications remain different measures.
Trigger recorded for this reading: Another monthly generation or electricity-trade observation, a new annual installed-capacity year, or a new CER scenario edition.
Limit: Monthly generation totals are not adjusted for weather. One rolling annual increase is not proof of a durable future pace. CER and Statistics Canada cross-border totals are compared on matching June windows and kept on separate issuer bases; the CER file’s exact publication date is not established.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
Countability's first dated reading on Canada's electricity buildout. The Canada Energy Regulator's own Energy Future 2026 dataset carries four scenarios for Canada's electricity supply out to 2035 and 2050. Every one of them -- including the most conservative -- assumes a pace several times the dataset's own recorded 2005-2023 average, and faster than any twelve-year stretch inside that record. For generation, the scenarios assume roughly seven to fourteen times the full-period average pace, and roughly 1.7 to 3.1 times the fastest twelve-year stretch. For installed capacity, they assume roughly two to four times the average pace, and roughly 1.6 to 2.6 times the fastest twelve-year stretch. The measured record since the projections' history ends is split: capacity shows a strong recent build year, while generation increased through 2025 but its freshest trailing-twelve-month window has not sustained that increase.
More on this question: Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? →
Why it stands: The new Electricity Delivery Brief computes the required and delivered paces from pinned values inside two member Resolutions -- the CER's projection dataset against its own history, and Statistics Canada's measured record on its own separate basis -- with every figure re-derivable from archived source bytes.
Plans priced on the official scenarios' electricity levels are priced on a sustained pace the record has not shown over any comparable twelve-year stretch; the capacity series says construction has accelerated, the generation series says delivered supply grew through 2025 but has not sustained that growth into its freshest window. Each new monthly release tests the projection's early years directly.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The next monthly generation release, the next annual installed-capacity reference year, or the next Energy Future vintage -- whichever arrives first.
Limit: Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathways, not commitments; measured generation follows demand as well as capability and is not weather-adjusted; and no public national series measures connection-queue demand, so the demand side of the projected load cannot be independently tracked.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Monthly evidence archives
Site-wide corrections and wording amendments
Record-dated corrections: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. Material qualification notices: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. Minor wording notices: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11.
These notices change published explanations, claims or wording. They do not report new observations. Each link preserves what was wrong, the replacement and its effect.
- Dollarama geography and quarter length Qualification dated 2026-11-04. The Canadian store-count observation is retained. Consolidated sales are not a measure of Canadian discount spending or evidence of household motivation.
- Labour headcount comparison and annual window Identified 2026-10-27. The summary and shared claim explanation change. The September employment and population observations, annual ratio of 0.52 and earlier dated readings are unchanged.
- EI successor rules and historical expiry notice Identified 2026-10-27. The rule history is brought forward; the original regulation and original notice are preserved. No employment observation changes.
- Monthly trade reference periods Identified 2026-10-27. The date comparison changes. Trade values, statistical bases, legal dates and the daily counts are unchanged.
- Alberta statistical balance and legal compliance Identified 2026-10-27. The legal-compliance inference and its associated pace verdict are withdrawn. This correction does not adjudicate the separately registered Ontario and Quebec statistical trend proxies, whose basis classifications remain under the combined fiscal review. The statistical balance of 1.29% of GDP in 2024 is unchanged. This makes no finding about Alberta's actual compliance.
- Ontario and Quebec statistical balances beside fiscal-year promises Identified 2026-10-27. The pace inference is withdrawn for Ontario and Quebec. Statistical values are unchanged. This makes no finding about actual provincial compliance.
- US Monitor overview reference periods Identified 2026-10-27. This completes the overview counterpart of the October 27 panel-date correction. Statistical values and legal dates are unchanged; no tariff-effect inference is made.
Material corrections and withdrawals in the evidence log
- Dated 2026-11-10: Two previously admitted selected findings are withdrawn from current use after recomputation: the Quebec balance streak and the earlier employment level-shift window. Their historical receipts remain available. Limit: Withdrawal does not erase the prior source edition or establish a causal explanation. A new selected window requires its own examination before admission.
Minor wording amendments (1) — no analytical conclusion changes
- Minor wording amendment — IRCC method limits Correction dated 2026-10-28. Wording only. No observation, calculation policy, precision or analytical conclusion changes.
Recorded release calendar — checked through 2026-11-11
This calendar retains the log’s original check date. Dates and then-future descriptions below are not a new check of an issuer’s schedule.
Official releases that could change the answer — next 14 days
| Date | Issuer | Release | What it could change | Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Statistics Canada | Building permits, September 2026 Confirmed date | The next unadjusted dwelling-unit count and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s October 14 August permits release. | Canadian Capacity Monitor · Housing shortage (Big Question) |
| 2026-11-16 | Statistics Canada | Consumer Price Index, October 2026 Confirmed date | The matched-month price, rent, core and wage comparison. Date stated in the September issuer release captured October 19. | Housing shortage (Big Question) · The price of everything: one headline rate, and the components underneath it |
Just beyond 14 days
| Date | Issuer | Release | What it could change | Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-27 | Statistics Canada | National Accounts (GDP and gross fixed capital formation), Q3 2026 Provisional — typical cadence | Whether the turn in real GDP per person holds for a second quarter, whether output per worker keeps adding, and whether the per-person level finally passes its 2022 Q3 record; on the capital side, a third quarter of 2026 investment, still one quarter short of a calendar year. The issuer may also restate the two quarters this release just settled. Date provisional: it follows the issuer's observed quarterly cadence of publishing about two months after the quarter ends, and no source captured for these readings pins it. | Investment into productivity (Big Question) · Living standards (Big Question) · The capital behind each worker: the investment record, and the productivity record beside it · The anatomy of Canadian living standards |
| 2026-12-08 | Statistics Canada | Canadian international merchandise trade, October 2026 Confirmed date | The next matched trade month and historical revisions. Date stated in the captured November 4 issuer article. | US Exposure Monitor · Sell beyond the us (Big Question) · Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went |
| 2026-12-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections report and target-accounting-basis update (adds the 2024 accounting-basis observation) Provisional — typical cadence | The delivered-share and pace-ratio readings on the target-accounting basis, the With Measures/With Additional Measures 2030 projections and their gap to the target band, and the 2026 interim-objective scenario check -- the principal settlement event for this Brief's first re-reading. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2026-12-31 | Environment and Climate Change Canada / UNFCCC | Canada's second Biennial Transparency Report (statutory Paris Agreement deadline) Confirmed date | Corroborates or updates the LULUCF accounting-contribution methodology and the target-accounting statements this Brief cites; carried unresolved if it lands before this Brief can ingest it. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2027-04-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | National Inventory Report, next edition (adds the 2025 gross-inventory observed year) Provisional — typical cadence | The gross-inventory basis's delivered-share and pace-ratio readings, the seven-sector ledger, and the moving-baseline chapter's own comparison; a full re-ingest of the new vintage with the prior vintage preserved, revision separated from new-year movement. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2027-12-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Statutory progress report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, next edition Provisional — typical cadence | The official-assessment quotations this Brief cites and the secondary sector indicators; never a verdict source by itself. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
Copyright © 2004-2022 Independent Electricity System Operator, all rights reserved. This information is subject to the Terms of Use set out in the IESO’s website (www.ieso.ca)