Next: The next annual projections and accounting-basis update (principal settlement event for the delivered-share and pace-ratio readings), the next National Inventory Report edition (the gross-inventory basis's own next…
Roughly a quarter to a third of the required reduction has been delivered, depending on basis; the rest would need several times the pace shown so far, and the latest official projection still lands above the target band.
The answer
On the accounting basis Canada's target is actually measured against, emissions have fallen from 759 Mt in 2005 to 655 Mt in the latest reported year (2023) -- a decline of 104 Mt, or roughly 34% of the reduction the target's 40% floor requires and roughly 30% of what its 45% ceiling requires. Closing the rest would need a sustained pace of roughly 29 to 34 Mt a year through 2030, against a record that has averaged less than 6 Mt a year since 2005 -- a gap of roughly five to six times. On the newest reported inventory year on the gross, LULUCF-excluded basis (2024, 684.7 Mt against a 763.02 Mt base), the same arithmetic delivers a smaller share (roughly a quarter to 23%) and a wider gap (roughly nine to eleven times the historical pace), because this basis carries a different vintage and does not include the accounting layer the target itself is measured against. The government's own most complete current projection for 2030, counting every announced measure, puts emissions at 546 Mt -- still 91 to 129 Mt above the target band.
| Target level low | 455.4 Mt CO2e |
|---|---|
| Required total low | 303.6 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered share low pct | 34.3% |
| Remaining low | 199.6 Mt CO2e |
| Required pace low | 28.5 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace low pct | -5.1% |
| Pace ratio low | 4.94× |
| Target level high | 417.4 Mt CO2e |
| Required total high | 341.6 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered share high pct | 30.4% |
| Remaining high | 237.6 Mt CO2e |
| Required pace high | 33.9 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace high pct | -6.2% |
| Pace ratio high | 5.87× |
| Delivered | 104.0 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered pct | 13.7% |
| Historical pace | 5.8 Mt CO2e per year |
| Historical pace pct | -0.8% |
The 2005 base value and the latest target-accounting-basis observed value (2023) define the delivered reduction and the historical annual pace over that span; the target's own lower bound (40%) and an explicit upper bound (45%, the range's other published endpoint) each imply a 2030 target level, which in turn defines the required total reduction, the delivered share of it, the remaining reduction, and the average annual pace the remaining distance would require between the latest observed year and 2030. The required pace is divided by the historical pace to give a pace ratio at each endpoint. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values and the Target's own cited value.
What this means for the decision
A reader who takes only the delivered-share number risks missing that it moves by roughly ten percentage points depending on which official accounting basis is used, and a reader who takes only the projection risks treating a modelled pathway as a settled outcome. Both belong in the same reading: the record shows real, sustained decline since 2005, concentrated heavily in one sector (electricity generation); the pace still required is a multiple of anything the record has sustained; and the government's own newest projection, built from every measure it has announced, does not close the distance on its own terms.
The key uncertainty
The target-accounting basis's own land-use accounting component moved by roughly 48 Mt between 2022 and 2023 alone -- a swing large enough to move the delivered-share reading on its own, independent of any change in combustion emissions. The next scheduled accounting-basis update (expected around December 2026) will show whether 2024's observed accounting contribution follows the government's own modelled path or departs from it, and that single component, not the sector record, could be the largest source of movement in this Brief's first re-reading. The pace multiple is also materially sensitive to the window it is measured over, and this Brief reports the base-year window rather than the most favourable one. On the target-accounting basis the record has averaged 5.8 Mt a year since 2005, 11.4 Mt a year since 2015, and 16.8 Mt a year since 2019 -- the last flattered by the 2020 pandemic drop, which 2021 and 2022 largely reversed; measured from 2020 the record has averaged only 1.7 Mt a year, because the rebound through 2022 gave back most of the pandemic drop. Against the 28.5 to 33.9 Mt a year the remaining distance would require, that is 4.9 to 5.9 times the base-year pace but only 1.7 to 2.0 times the pandemic-flattered one; the equivalent most-flattering figure on the gross-inventory basis is 3.0 to 3.5 times, and on that basis the window starting in 2020 shows emissions rising rather than falling. No window in the published record reaches the required pace on either basis, but the size of the multiple depends on which window is read.
What would settle it
The next annual projections and accounting-basis update (principal settlement event for the delivered-share and pace-ratio readings), the next National Inventory Report edition (the gross-inventory basis's own next observed year), the next statutory progress report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, and Canada's second Biennial Transparency Report (due by the end of 2026), in roughly that order of expected arrival.
A national emissions target is a specific, dated, numeric promise -- one of the few in public life with an exact accounting behind it. Whether the record is closing the distance to that promise, and how fast the remaining distance would have to close, is checkable on the government's own published terms, without waiting for the deadline year to arrive.
Evidence reviewed through 2026-07-21 · 3 cited sources · 2 member Resolutions · 7 chapters
Resolution lineages behind this Brief: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the gross National Inventory Report basis: the national total and seven-sector… → · Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the… →
Refreshed when Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes its next annual greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections report together with the accounting-basis update (expected around December, on the government's own publication cycle -- the principal settlement event for the target-accounting reading), or when the next National Inventory Report edition publishes the newest gross-inventory year (expected around April) -- whichever arrives first.
This Brief answers the Big Question Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? · How this Brief was made — sources, method and limits →
Chapter 1§
The answer
The delivered share of the required reduction, the pace still needed against the pace the record has actually shown, and where the government's own latest projection lands relative to the target band -- stated once, on the accounting basis the target itself is measured against, with the newest reported inventory year shown alongside it on its own separate basis.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 (target base year) | 759.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Target-accounting basis: National Inventory Report 1990-2023 (NIR2025 edition) four-sector total excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the LULUCF accounting… |
| 2023 (latest observed year on the target-accounting basis) | 655.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same target-accounting basis as the 2005 base-year value. This is the value the government's own 2025 progress report cites as '655 Mt in 2023, or 14% below… |
| 2030 (With Additional Measures scenario) | 546.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario, target-accounting basis, including nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures. The government's own… |
| 2005 (target base year, gross-inventory basis) | 763.0 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. This NIR2026-vintage figure is 4.02 Mt above the 759 Mt 2005 base carried on the… |
| 2024 (latest reported year on the gross-inventory basis) | 684.7 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. First appearance of this year in any NIR edition -- most subject to future revision of any… |
Reduce Canada's greenhouse gas emissions to 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030
Issuer: Government of Canada (Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act; 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan). Stated in Canada's Nationally Determined Contribution, July 2021; the 2030 target is the first milestone year under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act (S.C. 2021, c. 22).
Latest observed: 13.7 (2023) against target 40 (% below 2005 levels).
The evidence behind this chapter: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the… → · Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the gross National Inventory Report basis: the national total and seven-sector… →
Chapter 2§
The target and its accounting
What Canada actually committed to, in whose words, on what accounting basis -- and the one component, the land-use accounting contribution, that moves the assessed total away from the combustion-based inventory and does so unevenly from one year to the next.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 (target base year) | 759.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Target-accounting basis: National Inventory Report 1990-2023 (NIR2025 edition) four-sector total excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the LULUCF accounting… |
| 2019 (accounting contribution) | -25.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same accounting-contribution basis as the 2005 accounting-contribution value. |
| 2020 (accounting contribution) | -23.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same accounting-contribution basis as the 2005 accounting-contribution value. |
| 2021 (accounting contribution) | -29.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same accounting-contribution basis as the 2005 accounting-contribution value. |
| 2022 (accounting contribution -- positive, i.e. raised the target-basis total that year) | 8.8 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same accounting-contribution basis as the 2005 accounting-contribution value. The one positive year in the pinned run, evidence for this Resolution's… |
| 2023 (accounting contribution) | -39.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same accounting-contribution basis as the 2005 accounting-contribution value. A roughly 48 Mt swing from 2022 to 2023 in this one component -- the accounting… |
Reduce Canada's greenhouse gas emissions to 20% below 2005 levels by 2026
Issuer: Government of Canada (Environment and Climate Change Canada). Stated in Interim greenhouse gas emissions objective, announced March 2022; restated on ECCC's greenhouse gas emissions projections indicator page.
Latest observed: 13.7 (2023) against target 20 (% below 2005 levels).
How many tonnes of greenhouse gas did Canada emit in 2023?
What is missing: Not a missing series — two official series, and no way to reconcile them. Canada publishes national greenhouse-gas emissions on two different accounting bases and they do not agree. Environment and Climate Change Canada reports 655 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent for 2023 on the basis its own targets are assessed against (National Inventory Report emissions excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the LULUCF accounting contribution). Statistics Canada's physical flow account for greenhouse gas emissions (table 38-10-0097-01) reports 731.3 megatonnes for the same year — a difference of 76.3 megatonnes, 11.6% of the ECCC figure. The two are built to answer different questions: the inventory allocates emissions to the territory of Canada under UNFCCC source categories; the physical flow account allocates them to resident Canadian industries and households under the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, covers only carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and excludes land use and waste. Neither is wrong. Neither substitutes for the other.
Consequence: Every emissions target Canada has legislated or announced is stated against the inventory basis, so only that basis can settle whether a target is met. The physical flow account is the only official series that breaks emissions out by province and by industry, so only that basis can say where the emissions arise. No published series does both. Countability measures targets against the inventory basis and reports provincial and industry detail on the physical flow basis, names which basis is in use in every claim, and never blends them or differences one against the other.
The evidence behind this chapter: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the… →
Chapter 3§
Delivered and remaining
The bridge from the base year to the latest reported year to the target band, on each accounting basis in turn, and the pace the remaining distance would require set beside the pace the record has actually shown from the target's own base year -- the frame the target itself sets, and the least selective of the windows available. Shorter windows, including the one the pandemic shock briefly flatters, are disclosed with their arithmetic in this Brief's stated uncertainty rather than shown as a panel here.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 (target base year) | 759.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Target-accounting basis: National Inventory Report 1990-2023 (NIR2025 edition) four-sector total excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the LULUCF accounting… |
| 2019 (last pre-pandemic year) | 722.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same target-accounting basis as the 2005 base-year value. |
| 2020 (pandemic-shock year) | 660.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same target-accounting basis as the 2005 base-year value. |
| 2021 | 665.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same target-accounting basis as the 2005 base-year value. |
| 2022 | 709.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same target-accounting basis as the 2005 base-year value. The accounting contribution swings sharply positive this year (the 2022 accounting contribution)… |
| 2023 (latest observed year on the target-accounting basis) | 655.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Same target-accounting basis as the 2005 base-year value. This is the value the government's own 2025 progress report cites as '655 Mt in 2023, or 14% below… |
| 1990 (earliest reported year) | 607.9 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | National Inventory Total row, sum of gas-specific columns (CO2 + CH4 + N2O + HFCs + PFCs + SF6 + NF3, all already expressed in kt CO2e using AR5 100-year… |
| 2005 (target base year, gross-inventory basis) | 763.0 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. This NIR2026-vintage figure is 4.02 Mt above the 759 Mt 2005 base carried on the… |
| 2007 (highest national total in the pinned record) | 778.6 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. |
| 2015 | 743.4 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. |
| 2019 (last pre-pandemic year) | 748.0 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. |
| 2020 (pandemic-shock year -- a 67.1 Mt one-year drop from 2019) | 680.9 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. |
| 2021 | 691.3 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. |
| 2022 | 695.9 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. |
| 2023 (revised this vintage) | 686.9 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. NIR2026 revises this year from its own prior (NIR2025) reading; the revision is a separate… |
| 2024 (latest reported year on the gross-inventory basis) | 684.7 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. First appearance of this year in any NIR edition -- most subject to future revision of any… |
The evidence behind this chapter: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the… → · Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the gross National Inventory Report basis: the national total and seven-sector… →
Chapter 4§
Where emissions moved
The seven-sector ledger since the base year and since the last pre-pandemic year -- which sectors carried the net decline, which grew against it, and the emissions-per-output reading this Brief now gives its full frame, caveat included, rather than leaving it to stand alone as a ratio a reader could mistake for an emissions decline.
GHG emissions per $M of real GDP, physical flow account basis, annual: 14 consecutive years of negative change
GHG emissions per $M of real GDP, physical flow account basis, annual has been negative for 14 consecutive years, beginning in 2010. The latest reading is 304 in 2023. This is a ratio, not a level: real GDP growth alone can drive it down even if emissions are flat, so it must not be read as 'emissions are falling'. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.
Technical details
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005, Oil and Gas sector | 197.6 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | File's own 'Oil and Gas' top-level economic-sector row (Index column, Sector/Sub-sector/Sub-sub-sector blank). |
| 2019, Oil and Gas sector | 222.8 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Oil and Gas sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Oil and Gas sector | 207.6 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Oil and Gas sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2005, Electricity sector | 115.9 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | File's own 'Electricity' top-level economic-sector row. |
| 2019, Electricity sector | 61.6 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Electricity sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Electricity sector | 49.6 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Electricity sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. The largest sector decline since 2005 of any sector pinned here. |
| 2005, Transportation sector | 156.2 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | File's own 'Transport' top-level economic-sector row. |
| 2019, Transportation sector | 168.8 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Transport sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Transportation sector | 151.4 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Transport sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2005, Heavy Industry sector | 88.6 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | File's own 'Heavy Industry' top-level economic-sector row. |
| 2019, Heavy Industry sector | 80.3 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Heavy Industry sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Heavy Industry sector | 77.5 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Heavy Industry sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2005, Buildings sector | 84.7 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | File's own 'Buildings' top-level economic-sector row. |
| 2019, Buildings sector | 93.9 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Buildings sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Buildings sector | 81.4 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Buildings sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2005, Agriculture sector | 66.2 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | File's own 'Agriculture' top-level economic-sector row. |
| 2019, Agriculture sector | 69.4 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Agriculture sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Agriculture sector -- one of only two sectors above its 2005 level | 69.8 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Agriculture sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2005, Waste and others sector (Waste, Coal Production, and Light Manufacturing/Construction/Forest Resources rows combined) | 53.8 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Sum of the file's 'Waste', 'Coal Production', and 'Light Manufacturing, Construction and Forest Resources' top-level economic-sector rows, grouped to match the… |
| 2019, Waste and others sector | 51.2 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same Waste-and-others sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
| 2024, Waste and others sector | 47.5 Mt CO2e | preliminary observation | — | Same Waste-and-others sector basis as that sector's 2005 base-year value. |
The evidence behind this chapter: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the gross National Inventory Report basis: the national total and seven-sector… →
Chapter 5§
What the government's own projections show
The government's current With Measures and With Additional Measures scenarios against the target band and against its own prior progress-report vintage of the same scenario -- restating the issuer's own revision, sector by sector, never a Countability estimate of what any single measure changed.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (With Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective) | 635.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | EPR2025 With Measures scenario, target-accounting basis, LULUCF accounting contribution included. This is the issuer's modelled pathway, never a Countability… |
| 2026 (With Additional Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective) | 636.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario, target-accounting basis, LULUCF accounting contribution included, plus nature-based climate solutions and… |
| 2030 (With Measures scenario) | 600.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | EPR2025 With Measures scenario, target-accounting basis. Excludes Western Climate Initiative credit flows, which this vintage's publisher note states are no… |
| 2030 (With Additional Measures scenario) | 546.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario, target-accounting basis, including nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures. The government's own… |
| 2030 With Additional Measures, as presented in the 2023 progress report (EPR2023 vintage -- superseded by the current EPR2025 figure) | 467.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | The government's own prior (EPR2023) vintage of the With Additional Measures scenario, target-accounting basis, restated in the EPR2025 report's own Table 3… |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 With Additional Measures scenario: EPR2023 vintage vs EPR2025 vintage | +79.0 Mt CO2e | Same scenario (With Additional Measures), same target year (2030), two successive progress-report vintages of the issuer's own projection -- the government's own record of how its projection changed, restated verbatim… |
The evidence behind this chapter: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the… →
Chapter 6§
The moving baseline
The same base year, two accounting vintages, two different values -- shown side by side rather than reconciled into one, because reconciling them would hide exactly the fact a reader needs: which figure moved, and why the two bases are never combined in one calculation on this Brief.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 (target base year) | 759.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | Target-accounting basis: National Inventory Report 1990-2023 (NIR2025 edition) four-sector total excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the LULUCF accounting… |
| 2005 (target base year, gross-inventory basis) | 763.0 Mt CO2e | revised observation | — | Same National Inventory Total basis as the 1990 base-year value. This NIR2026-vintage figure is 4.02 Mt above the 759 Mt 2005 base carried on the… |
The evidence behind this chapter: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the… → · Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the gross National Inventory Report basis: the national total and seven-sector… →
Chapter 7§
What to watch next
The releases that can change this reading, in the order they are expected, and what each one can and cannot settle -- an annual projections update is not a new inventory year, and neither is a substitute for the audited settlement the interim objective's own deadline will eventually require.
Are Canada's emissions falling fast enough this year?
What is missing: No official sub-annual greenhouse-gas emissions series exists for Canada, and the annual one arrives late. Emissions are reported once a year in the National Inventory Report, Canada's submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, roughly fifteen to eighteen months after the year it describes. As of July 2026 the most recent observed year is 2023.
Consequence: The interim objective falls due at the end of 2026 and the year it names cannot be observed until roughly 2028. Every statement about whether Canada is on track in the current year is therefore a statement about a projection, not an observation. Countability's pace verdicts are computed against the most recent observed year and say so; the gap between that year and today is stated on every claim rather than smoothed over. This is a structural feature of treaty-compliant inventory reporting, not a Canadian failing — the same lag applies to every Annex I party.
Scenarios
Delivered share and required pace -- target-accounting basis
On the accounting basis Canada's target is actually measured against, how much of the required reduction has been delivered, and how fast would the rest have to arrive?
The 2005 base value and the latest target-accounting-basis observed value (2023) define the delivered reduction and the historical annual pace over that span; the target's own lower bound (40%) and an explicit upper bound (45%, the range's other published endpoint) each imply a 2030 target level, which in turn defines the required total reduction, the delivered share of it, the remaining reduction, and the average annual pace the remaining distance would require between the latest observed year and 2030. The required pace is divided by the historical pace to give a pace ratio at each endpoint. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values and the Target's own cited value.
| Target level low | 455.4 Mt CO2e |
| Required total low | 303.6 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered share low pct | 34.3% |
| Remaining low | 199.6 Mt CO2e |
| Required pace low | 28.5 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace low pct | -5.1% |
| Pace ratio low | 4.94× |
| Target level high | 417.4 Mt CO2e |
| Required total high | 341.6 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered share high pct | 30.4% |
| Remaining high | 237.6 Mt CO2e |
| Required pace high | 33.9 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace high pct | -6.2% |
| Pace ratio high | 5.87× |
| Delivered | 104.0 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered pct | 13.7% |
| Historical pace | 5.8 Mt CO2e per year |
| Historical pace pct | -0.8% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats the change over each window as if it were delivered evenly across the window; neither the historical record nor any required future path is actually linear.
- The 45% upper endpoint is the target's own published range (the same range stated in that commitment's own measurement note), not a Countability estimate; the lower bound (40%) is that Target's own cited value.
- Both the base and latest values are read from one Resolution, one accounting basis, one vintage -- this scenario is never combined with the gross-inventory basis in one calculation.
Delivered share and required pace -- gross-inventory basis
On the newest reported inventory year (gross basis, excluding the LULUCF accounting layer), how much of the required reduction has been delivered, and how fast would the rest have to arrive?
The identical formula as scn-target-bridge-accounting, applied to the gross-inventory basis's own 2005 base and its own latest reported year (2024) instead -- a separate, independently reproducible instance on a different Resolution, never blended with the target-accounting basis's own figures.
| Target level low | 457.8 Mt CO2e |
| Required total low | 305.2 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered share low pct | 25.7% |
| Remaining low | 226.9 Mt CO2e |
| Required pace low | 37.8 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace low pct | -6.5% |
| Pace ratio low | 9.17× |
| Target level high | 419.7 Mt CO2e |
| Required total high | 343.4 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered share high pct | 22.8% |
| Remaining high | 265.0 Mt CO2e |
| Required pace high | 44.2 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace high pct | -7.8% |
| Pace ratio high | 10.72× |
| Delivered | 78.3 Mt CO2e |
| Delivered pct | 10.3% |
| Historical pace | 4.1 Mt CO2e per year |
| Historical pace pct | -0.6% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats the change over each window as if it were delivered evenly across the window; neither the historical record nor any required future path is actually linear.
- The 45% upper endpoint is the target's own published range, restated here for the gross-inventory basis exactly as on the target-accounting instance; the lower bound (40%) is the Target's own cited value.
- This basis excludes the LULUCF accounting contribution entirely -- it is the newest reported inventory year, not the basis the target itself is assessed against (see scn-target-bridge-accounting for that basis).
The government's 2030 With Additional Measures projection against the target band
Where does the government's own most comprehensive current projection for 2030 land relative to the target band it is meant to meet?
The 2030 With Additional Measures scenario total (the government's own most comprehensive current projection, including nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures) restated against the target level implied by each endpoint of the target's published range -- the gap is the projection minus the target level, at each endpoint; a positive gap means the projection sits above (short of) the target.
| Projection value | 546.0 Mt CO2e |
| Projection pct below base | 28.1% |
| Target level low | 455.4 Mt CO2e |
| Gap low | 90.6 Mt CO2e |
| Target level high | 417.4 Mt CO2e |
| Gap high | 128.6 Mt CO2e |
Assumptions:
- The projection is the issuer's own modelled pathway under its stated policy assumptions, not a Countability forecast and never rendered as an observed outcome.
- The gap is computed against the same 2005 base and the same 40%/45% range as the delivered-share scenarios, so the three readings share one consistent target definition.
The 2026 interim objective against both current scenarios
Where do the government's own current scenarios put 2026 relative to the interim objective's single stated level?
The identical formula as scn-projection-gap, applied to the 2026 interim objective (a single stated level, 20% below 2005, not a range) and each of the two current scenario totals for that year in turn -- the low/high endpoints are therefore identical (the objective has no published range), each restating one scenario's 2026 total against the objective's implied level.
| Projection value | 636.0 Mt CO2e |
| Projection pct below base | 16.2% |
| Target level low | 607.2 Mt CO2e |
| Gap low | 28.8 Mt CO2e |
| Target level high | 607.2 Mt CO2e |
| Gap high | 28.8 Mt CO2e |
Assumptions:
- The interim objective is a single announced level, not a legislated target with a range; both endpoints of this scenario's output are therefore identical by construction.
- The 2026 scenario totals are the issuer's own modelled pathway, not an observation -- the interim objective's own observed settlement does not arrive until the National Inventory Report and target-accounting vintages covering calendar year 2026 are published, expected around 2028.
Required pace against every tested historical window -- target-accounting basis
How much does the pace multiple depend on which historical window it is measured over?
The required average annual reduction between the latest observed year and 2030 is computed at both published endpoints of the target's own range, exactly as in the delivered-share scenario. That single required pace is then divided by the achieved average annual reduction over each of four declared historical windows -- from the target's own base year, from a decade before the latest year, from the last pre-pandemic year, and from the pandemic-shock year -- so the sensitivity of the multiple to its starting point is published rather than chosen. Every window endpoint is pinned from the same Resolution, on the same accounting basis and vintage, as the latest value; the formula refuses a window whose emissions did not fall, because a required-to-achieved ratio has no valid reading against a non-declining record.
| Achieved base | 5.8 Mt CO2e per year |
| Span base | 18.0 years |
| Ratio base low | 4.94× |
| Ratio base high | 5.87× |
| Achieved decade | 11.4 Mt CO2e per year |
| Span decade | 8.0 years |
| Ratio decade low | 2.51× |
| Ratio decade high | 2.98× |
| Achieved prepandemic | 16.8 Mt CO2e per year |
| Span prepandemic | 4.0 years |
| Ratio prepandemic low | 1.70× |
| Ratio prepandemic high | 2.03× |
| Achieved pandemic | 1.7 Mt CO2e per year |
| Span pandemic | 3.0 years |
| Ratio pandemic low | 17.11× |
| Ratio pandemic high | 20.36× |
| Required pace low | 28.5 Mt CO2e per year |
| Required pace high | 33.9 Mt CO2e per year |
Assumptions:
- The headline multiple this Brief publishes is the base-year window (2005 to the latest observed year) -- the target's own frame and the least selective window available, not the most favourable.
- The 2019 window embeds the 2020 pandemic collapse and is therefore the most flattering window in the record; it is published here for that reason, not despite it.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if delivered evenly across it; neither the record nor any required path is actually linear.
Directly observed
Estimated, projected, or otherwise not yet an audited outcome
- 2005 (target base year)
- 2023 (latest observed year on the target-accounting basis)
- 2030 (With Additional Measures scenario)
- 2005 (target base year, gross-inventory basis)
- 2024 (latest reported year on the gross-inventory basis)
- 2019 (accounting contribution)
- 2020 (accounting contribution)
- 2021 (accounting contribution)
- 2022 (accounting contribution -- positive, i.e. raised the target-basis total that year)
- 2023 (accounting contribution)
- 2019 (last pre-pandemic year)
- 2020 (pandemic-shock year)
- 2021
- 2022
- 1990 (earliest reported year)
- 2007 (highest national total in the pinned record)
- 2015
- 2019 (last pre-pandemic year)
- 2020 (pandemic-shock year -- a 67.1 Mt one-year drop from 2019)
- 2021
- 2022
- 2023 (revised this vintage)
- 2005, Oil and Gas sector
- 2019, Oil and Gas sector
- 2024, Oil and Gas sector
- 2005, Electricity sector
- 2019, Electricity sector
- 2024, Electricity sector
- 2005, Transportation sector
- 2019, Transportation sector
- 2024, Transportation sector
- 2005, Heavy Industry sector
- 2019, Heavy Industry sector
- 2024, Heavy Industry sector
- 2005, Buildings sector
- 2019, Buildings sector
- 2024, Buildings sector
- 2005, Agriculture sector
- 2019, Agriculture sector
- 2024, Agriculture sector -- one of only two sectors above its 2005 level
- 2005, Waste and others sector (Waste, Coal Production, and Light Manufacturing/Construction/Forest Resources rows combined)
- 2019, Waste and others sector
- 2024, Waste and others sector
- 2026 (With Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective)
- 2026 (With Additional Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective)
- 2030 (With Measures scenario)
- 2030 With Additional Measures, as presented in the 2023 progress report (EPR2023 vintage -- superseded by the current EPR2025 figure)
- 2030 With Additional Measures scenario: EPR2023 vintage vs EPR2025 vintage
Unresolved
- Not a missing series — two official series, and no way to reconcile them. Canada publishes national greenhouse-gas emissions on two different accounting bases and they do not agree. Environment and Climate Change Canada reports 655 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent for 2023 on the basis its own targets are assessed against (National Inventory Report emissions excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the LULUCF accounting contribution). Statistics Canada's physical flow account for greenhouse gas emissions (table 38-10-0097-01) reports 731.3 megatonnes for the same year — a difference of 76.3 megatonnes, 11.6% of the ECCC figure. The two are built to answer different questions: the inventory allocates emissions to the territory of Canada under UNFCCC source categories; the physical flow account allocates them to resident Canadian industries and households under the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, covers only carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and excludes land use and waste. Neither is wrong. Neither substitutes for the other.
- No official sub-annual greenhouse-gas emissions series exists for Canada, and the annual one arrives late. Emissions are reported once a year in the National Inventory Report, Canada's submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, roughly fifteen to eighteen months after the year it describes. As of July 2026 the most recent observed year is 2023.
Key evidence
| Issuer | Publication | Published | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory -- National Inventory Report 2026 edition (1990-2024), Economic Sector t | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Oil and Gas row | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Electricity row | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Transport row | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Heavy Industry row | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Buildings row | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Agriculture row | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Official Greenhouse Gas Inventory, NIR 2026 edition, Economic Sector table -- Waste and others (the file&# | 2026-04-14 | NIR 2026 edition | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Greenhouse gas emissions projections -- Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators, 2026 indicator vintage: histor | 2026-06-18 | CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Greenhouse gas emissions projections -- Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators, 2026 indicator vintage: the &# | 2026-06-18 | CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenario | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Greenhouse gas emissions projections -- Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators, 2026 indicator vintage: the &# | 2026-06-18 | CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scena | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections -- Current Projections, Tab 6 (Land use, land-use change, and forestr | 2025-12-17 | EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | Source → |
| Environment and Climate Change Canada | 2025 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, Table 3: Canada's 2030 GHG emissions projections by econ | 2025-12-17 | EPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05) | Source → |
Method and limitations
- Every figure on this Brief resolves to a pinned value inside one of its two member Resolutions -- each re-derivable from archived source bytes recorded with content hashes -- or to a Scenario computed here, once, before publication, from those same pinned values under a named, whitelisted formula and explicitly stated assumptions. The two Resolutions carry two different official accounting bases, on two different inventory vintages, and are never combined in one calculation: every Scenario on this Brief draws its base and latest (or projection) values from exactly one Resolution. The target's own published range is preserved at both endpoints throughout -- no single-number midpoint is ever substituted for the range, and the lower bound is always the Target object's own cited value, never a Brief-typed literal. Every projection figure is the issuer's own modelled scenario output, restated with attribution, and is never rendered as an observed outcome or a Countability forecast. The pace comparison starts at the target's own base year, which is the least selective window available rather than the most favourable to any conclusion; the shorter windows tested, including the one the pandemic shock flatters and the one over which emissions rose, are disclosed with their arithmetic in this Brief's stated uncertainty rather than chosen between.
- Excludes Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector emissions and removals; this is the gross basis, not the basis Canada's targets are assessed against (see the target-accounting entry for that basis, which adds the LULUCF accounting contribution to a differently-vintaged four-sector total).
- Every historical year in this Resolution is subject to revision at the next National Inventory Report vintage; the 2024 value is this vintage's newest and least-revised year, the most likely to move at the next edition.
- The seven-sector grouping used here (Oil and Gas, Electricity, Transportation, Heavy Industry, Buildings, Agriculture, Waste and others) is Countability's own restatement of the inventory's economic-sector categories, chosen to match the government's own projections-report grouping for comparability; it is not itself an official category name in the underlying file.
- The LULUCF accounting contribution is volatile year to year (+8.8 Mt in 2022, -39.0 Mt in 2023 -- a roughly 48 Mt swing) in a way the combustion-based gross inventory is not; a single year's movement on this basis can be driven more by the accounting layer than by any change in fuel use, industrial output, or land management.
- The 2005 base value on this basis (759 Mt) differs from the same base year's value on the gross-inventory basis (763.02 Mt, see the gross-inventory entry) because the two Resolutions carry different National Inventory Report vintages (NIR2025 versus NIR2026) as well as different LULUCF treatment -- the two bases are never combined in one calculation.
- With Measures and With Additional Measures figures are the issuer's own modelled scenario pathways under its stated assumptions; they are not commitments, plans, or Countability forecasts, and are never rendered as observed outcomes.
- Western Climate Initiative credit flows (Quebec-California allowance trading) are excluded from every total on this Resolution from the EPR2025 vintage forward, per the issuer's own note about the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement; earlier vintages may have treated them differently.
- Average annual pace treats the change over each window as if it were delivered evenly across the window; neither the historical record nor any required future path is actually linear.
- The 45% upper endpoint is the target's own published range (the same range stated in that commitment's own measurement note), not a Countability estimate; the lower bound (40%) is that Target's own cited value.
- Both the base and latest values are read from one Resolution, one accounting basis, one vintage -- this scenario is never combined with the gross-inventory basis in one calculation.
- Average annual pace treats the change over each window as if it were delivered evenly across the window; neither the historical record nor any required future path is actually linear.
- The 45% upper endpoint is the target's own published range, restated here for the gross-inventory basis exactly as on the target-accounting instance; the lower bound (40%) is the Target's own cited value.
- This basis excludes the LULUCF accounting contribution entirely -- it is the newest reported inventory year, not the basis the target itself is assessed against (see scn-target-bridge-accounting for that basis).
- The projection is the issuer's own modelled pathway under its stated policy assumptions, not a Countability forecast and never rendered as an observed outcome.
- The gap is computed against the same 2005 base and the same 40%/45% range as the delivered-share scenarios, so the three readings share one consistent target definition.
- The interim objective is a single announced level, not a legislated target with a range; both endpoints of this scenario's output are therefore identical by construction.
- The 2026 scenario totals are the issuer's own modelled pathway, not an observation -- the interim objective's own observed settlement does not arrive until the National Inventory Report and target-accounting vintages covering calendar year 2026 are published, expected around 2028.
- The headline multiple this Brief publishes is the base-year window (2005 to the latest observed year) -- the target's own frame and the least selective window available, not the most favourable.
- The 2019 window embeds the 2020 pandemic collapse and is therefore the most flattering window in the record; it is published here for that reason, not despite it.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if delivered evenly across it; neither the record nor any required path is actually linear.
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