A dated check has been recorded since the first reading — see the watch, below, for what changed, what held, and what remains unresolved.
Dates and evidence
When
Event or release
What it can and cannot show
2026-09-08 date stated in the document
Canada's counter-tariffs became legally effective
Legally effective on this date under the Department of Finance Canada's own published schedule. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments.
no date pinned
The first trade record covering the September reference month Period covered: 2026-09-01 — 2026-09-30 September trade was released November 4 and read November 10. This row describes the observed reference window, not an upcoming release.
Entirely after the original August United States duties (2026-08-22)
Only partly after Canada's counter-tariffs (2026-09-08)
Nothing in this record separates price from volume, or one country's action from the other's. These calendar comparisons use the original United States duties and Canada’s counter-tariffs; the September scope changes and import exclusions are described separately in the legal record.
2026-12-08 issuer-stated date
The next trade record covering the October reference month Period covered: 2026-10-01 — 2026-10-31
Entirely after the original August United States duties (2026-08-22)
Entirely after Canada's counter-tariffs (2026-09-08)
Nothing in this record separates price from volume, or one country's action from the other's. These calendar comparisons use the original United States duties and Canada’s counter-tariffs; the September scope changes and import exclusions are described separately in the legal record.
Daily truck counts now cover all September. The computed goods and services rows cover September, and the separately dated September Balance of Payments successor below retains its own definitions. September has a higher daily average and a lower United States plate share than August, with different calendar and holiday composition. Labour Day counts as a weekday in these calendar totals. These unadjusted counts do not establish a trade trend. Neither counts nor trade aggregates identify tariff effects or duties paid.
The United States remains the main destination in the latest held customs-basis goods-export reading
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Direct monthly customs-basis values from Statistics Canada country-partner merchandise-trade table. The separately qualified Balance of Payments rolling-share comparison appears in the exports Brief; it is not this panel’s measure.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Trigger
New customs-basis monthly observations or revisions to this source edition.
Limitation
This panel’s monthly customs-basis share is distinct from the Brief’s seasonally adjusted Balance of Payments twelve-month share. The full monthly reference period is stated with the panel. Timing and aggregate movements alone identify neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
Sectoral compositionState Selected sectors; full current coverage is not established
Selected sectors; full current coverage is not established
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: a controlled slice of major industry sectors within Statistics Canada's international trade by industry table; not every sector is restated (see limitation).
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Trigger
The next release or a broader verified sector breakdown.
Limitation
This selected breakdown covers named sectors; other sectors, including Utilities with two different source categories sharing one label, are not fully identified by this breakdown. Full-month reference dates are stated with the panel; timing alone cannot identify tariff effects or duties paid.
CUSMA qualificationState Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement
Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the monthly share of exports and imports qualifying under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, from Statistics Canada's trade-under-CUSMA table. This is the closest observable this record holds to the tariff-status gap stated below; it narrows that gap without closing it.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Trigger
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
Limitation
Trade-agreement qualification is not a duty assessment, a tariff-preference utilization measure, or an effective tariff rate. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
Origin-versus-export routingState Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share
Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the gap between where an import is recorded as exported from and where it is recorded as originating, from Statistics Canada's country-of-origin trade table.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Trigger
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
Limitation
A gap between origin and export country describes a shipment route; it asserts nothing about tariff evasion or transshipment intent. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
Export price and volumeState The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume
The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: fixed-weighted export price and volume indexes on a customs basis, seasonally adjusted, from Statistics Canada's international trade price and volume tables.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Trigger
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
Limitation
This panel uses fixed-weighted indexes. A different weighting and the separate quarterly table are outside this comparison. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
Daily truck crossingsState A complete September of truck counts, with calendar effects unresolved
A complete September of truck counts, with calendar effects unresolved
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Statistics Canada's daily table, based on CBSA counts. Monthly averages use daily counts; the plate share divides plate counts by all entries.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: not stated in the captured evidence. Recheck when new daily observations or revisions appear.
Trigger
New days or revisions. A full month after the duties took effect would extend coverage, not identify their effect.
Limitation
Preliminary, unadjusted entries: September has more weekdays and fewer weekend days than August; Labour Day is counted as a weekday. No holiday or seasonal adjustment is applied. Monthly averages do not establish a trade trend. Plates do not identify cargo origin, goods values or duties paid. The first captured month remains partial.
Provinces and statesState For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor
For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: each province's exports to each individual United States state, all product sections combined, from Statistics Canada's provincial and state trade table. The largest state and its share are identified for every province; Canada-level merchandise trade by tariff-classification section is also read from the same table.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Trigger
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
Limitation
This province-by-state reading uses Statistics Canada's 'domestic exports' figures, which leave out goods shipped onward through Canada without being made here. That is a different, narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor, and the two are never added together. A leftover category the table calls 'Other states' is not counted as a single state when finding each province's biggest customer. Where two states are exactly tied for largest in a province, this record refuses to break the tie and states that no single largest destination exists that month; no tie occurs in this reading. The full breakdown by product type, province, and state together is outside this comparison. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
The tariff-status gapState No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates
No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Absence, not a measurement: the operative tariff documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but no consolidated official series states what share of exports is actually tariffed, at what effective rate, once qualification, classification, exclusions, and stacking rules are applied.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Trigger
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Limitation
Any stated coverage percentage beyond what a government has itself published would be an outside model, not a reading of this record.
The United States remains the main destination in the latest held customs-basis goods-export reading
—
Direct monthly customs-basis values from Statistics Canada country-partner merchandise-trade table. The separately qualified Balance of Payments rolling-share comparison appears in the exports Brief; it is not this panel’s measure.
No registered target or benchmark
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
New customs-basis monthly observations or revisions to this source edition.
This panel’s monthly customs-basis share is distinct from the Brief’s seasonally adjusted Balance of Payments twelve-month share. The full monthly reference period is stated with the panel. Timing and aggregate movements alone identify neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
Selected sectors; full current coverage is not established
—
Directly observed: a controlled slice of major industry sectors within Statistics Canada's international trade by industry table; not every sector is restated (see limitation).
No registered target or benchmark
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release or a broader verified sector breakdown.
This selected breakdown covers named sectors; other sectors, including Utilities with two different source categories sharing one label, are not fully identified by this breakdown. Full-month reference dates are stated with the panel; timing alone cannot identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement
—
Directly observed: the monthly share of exports and imports qualifying under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, from Statistics Canada's trade-under-CUSMA table. This is the closest observable this record holds to the tariff-status gap stated below; it narrows that gap without closing it.
No registered target or benchmark
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
Trade-agreement qualification is not a duty assessment, a tariff-preference utilization measure, or an effective tariff rate. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share
—
Directly observed: the gap between where an import is recorded as exported from and where it is recorded as originating, from Statistics Canada's country-of-origin trade table.
No registered target or benchmark
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
A gap between origin and export country describes a shipment route; it asserts nothing about tariff evasion or transshipment intent. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume
—
Directly observed: fixed-weighted export price and volume indexes on a customs basis, seasonally adjusted, from Statistics Canada's international trade price and volume tables.
No registered target or benchmark
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
This panel uses fixed-weighted indexes. A different weighting and the separate quarterly table are outside this comparison. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
A complete September of truck counts, with calendar effects unresolved
—
Statistics Canada's daily table, based on CBSA counts. Monthly averages use daily counts; the plate share divides plate counts by all entries.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: not stated in the captured evidence. Recheck when new daily observations or revisions appear.
New days or revisions. A full month after the duties took effect would extend coverage, not identify their effect.
Preliminary, unadjusted entries: September has more weekdays and fewer weekend days than August; Labour Day is counted as a weekday. No holiday or seasonal adjustment is applied. Monthly averages do not establish a trade trend. Plates do not identify cargo origin, goods values or duties paid. The first captured month remains partial.
For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor
—
Directly observed: each province's exports to each individual United States state, all product sections combined, from Statistics Canada's provincial and state trade table. The largest state and its share are identified for every province; Canada-level merchandise trade by tariff-classification section is also read from the same table.
No registered target or benchmark
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
This province-by-state reading uses Statistics Canada's 'domestic exports' figures, which leave out goods shipped onward through Canada without being made here. That is a different, narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor, and the two are never added together. A leftover category the table calls 'Other states' is not counted as a single state when finding each province's biggest customer. Where two states are exactly tied for largest in a province, this record refuses to break the tie and states that no single largest destination exists that month; no tie occurs in this reading. The full breakdown by product type, province, and state together is outside this comparison. Monthly reference periods cover the full month; their relation to legal dates is stated with each panel. Timing alone identifies neither tariff effects nor duties paid.
No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates
—
Absence, not a measurement: the operative tariff documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but no consolidated official series states what share of exports is actually tariffed, at what effective rate, once qualification, classification, exclusions, and stacking rules are applied.
No registered target or benchmark
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Any stated coverage percentage beyond what a government has itself published would be an outside model, not a reading of this record.
Cross-domain tensions
TemporalThe daily truck count and the monthly trade releases move on different clocks, so the newest evidence on this page is not the most complete evidence.Headline US export share ↔ Daily truck crossings
Beyond this recordTrade-agreement qualification narrows what this record can say about tariff exposure; it does not close the gap this Monitor states directly.CUSMA qualification ↔ the record beyond this Monitor
MeasurementSectoral composition and the province-to-state trade table describe overlapping flows on different classification bases, so their figures should not be added together.Sectoral composition ↔ Provinces and states
Evidence cutoff: 2026-11-10
Earlier Monitor readings
Their wording and upcoming-release statements belong to the dates shown.
Reading through 2026-09-16
The truck row now covers August; monthly trade rows retain July. August has more weekend days, so its unadjusted averages do not establish a trade trend. The trade reading is unchanged: the United States share is this record's lowest and United States-bound exports ended their run of monthly rises. Trade observations precede both countries' duties. August truck counts straddle the United States duties' effective date but precede Canada's counter-tariffs. Neither tariff effects nor effective coverage are measured here.
Reading through 2026-10-04
The truck row now covers August; monthly trade rows retain July. August has more weekend days, so its unadjusted averages do not establish a trade trend. The trade reading is unchanged: the United States share is this record's lowest and United States-bound exports ended their run of monthly rises. Trade observations precede both countries' duties. August truck counts straddle the United States duties' effective date but precede Canada's counter-tariffs. Neither tariff effects nor effective coverage are measured here.
Reading through 2026-10-13
Daily truck counts now cover all September. The computed goods and services rows cover August, and the separately dated August Balance of Payments successor below retains its own definitions. September has a higher daily average and a lower United States plate share than August, with different calendar and holiday composition. Labour Day counts as a weekday in these calendar totals. These unadjusted counts do not establish a trade trend. Neither counts nor trade aggregates identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Headline US export share: The United States receives most of Canada's goods exports, and its share over the latest twelve months is the lowest this record holds. Next merchandise-trade release: November 4, 2026, for the September reference month, as stated in the October 6 issuer release. Other source families have separate release dates.
Sectoral composition: A small number of major sectors carry nearly all of Canada's exports to the United States. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
CUSMA qualification: Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Origin-versus-export routing: Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Export price and volume: The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Daily truck crossings: A complete September of truck counts, with calendar effects unresolved. Next release: not stated in the captured evidence. Recheck when new daily observations or revisions appear.
Provinces and states: For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
The tariff-status gap: No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates. No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Reading through 2026-10-27
Daily truck counts now cover all September. The computed goods and services rows cover August, and the separately dated August Balance of Payments successor below retains its own definitions. September has a higher daily average and a lower United States plate share than August, with different calendar and holiday composition. Labour Day counts as a weekday in these calendar totals. These unadjusted counts do not establish a trade trend. Neither counts nor trade aggregates identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Headline US export share: The United States remains the main destination in the latest held customs-basis goods-export reading. Next merchandise-trade release: November 4, 2026, for the September reference month, as stated in the October 6 issuer release. Other source families have separate release dates.
Sectoral composition: Selected sectors; full current coverage is not established. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
CUSMA qualification: Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Origin-versus-export routing: Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Export price and volume: The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
Daily truck crossings: A complete September of truck counts, with calendar effects unresolved. Next release: not stated in the captured evidence. Recheck when new daily observations or revisions appear.
Provinces and states: For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor. No issuer-stated next release date is held for this table. The separate headline merchandise-trade release is scheduled for November 4, 2026.
The tariff-status gap: No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates. No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Canada's trade with the United States sets prices, jobs, and policy choices across the economy, and the two countries' governments are now applying and answering tariff actions against each other. This view holds the record's own trade tables together in one place: what is directly observed, what a trade-agreement qualification narrows without closing, and what no institution yet measures at all.
The evidence cutoff states the scope of the review. Reference dates identify the periods measured by individual figures. The assessed date records when Countability last reconsidered the reading; the oldest member reading identifies the earliest period among its cited inputs. How to read the clock →
The watch
Each dated check stays in the history below, whether new evidence changed the answer or confirmed it.
Since the last reading
New periodEvidence 2026-11-05
Goods exports to countries other than the United States rose by $49.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from a year earlier. Unwrought gold and other precious metals account for $25.8 billion of that, or 53%.
For all destinations together, export prices rose 9.7% and export volume did not change over the same nine months. For all destinations, the export price of the gold category rose 41%.
The full check
What happened: Budget 2026 reports progress toward doubling non-U.S. exports by the end of 2035. Its figures reproduce on Statistics Canada's balance of payments data. The product split is from customs data, table 12-10-0182.
Limitation: The budget's figures cover goods and services on a balance of payments basis. The gold share is for goods on a customs basis. Statistics Canada's export price and volume indexes cover all destinations together, so this record has no volume measure for non-U.S. exports alone.
Next trigger: The October trade release, scheduled for December 8.
Goods exports to countries other than the United States rose by $49.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from a year earlier. Unwrought gold and other precious metals account for $25.8 billion of that, or 53%.
2026-11-04 · New period
The U.S. share of Canada’s goods exports was 68.30% over the twelve months through September 2026, against 73.49% over the preceding twelve months. In September, U.S.-bound exports rose 0.7% while exports to other countries fell 1.1%.
2026-10-13 · New period
September is fully covered: 14,614.87 truck entries/day, including 1,811.87 with United States plates (12.40%). August: 14,144.03 entries/day and a 12.57% plate share. September has 22 weekdays and 8 weekend days; August has 21 and 10. These unadjusted averages do not establish a trade trend.
2026-10-09 · New period
The U.S. share of Canada’s goods exports was 68.34% over the twelve months through August 2026, compared with 73.88% over the preceding twelve months. U.S.-bound exports rose 8.1% in August from July, to $54.35 billion.
2026-09-14 · New reading
The United States import bans reach their legal effective date on September 29. Three proclamations cover specific Canadian alcoholic beverages, whey and molasses products, non-alcoholic beer and motorcycles in the tariff line for engines over 800 cc. These are listed products, not whole industries. Two further proclamations changed the goods subject to earlier 50 percent duties from September 15 and made those amended duties apply alongside Section 232 duties. The trade reading remains on July, before these September actions.
2026-09-14 · New period
August is fully covered: 14,144.03 truck entries/day, including 1,778.42 US-plated (12.57%). July: 14,329.90 entries/day, including 1,811.55 US-plated (12.64%). August has more weekend days; entries rose within both weekday and weekend groups. Plate shares rose on weekdays but fell on weekends; these averages do not establish a trade trend.
2026-09-03 · New reading
The U.S. Exposure Brief now compares July 2026 trade by road, rail, air, water and other transport. Each mode shows exports and imports separately, against July 2025 and against its own world total.
2026-09-03 · New period
Third reading, on the July 2026 trade record, and the share set a record. Over the twelve months through July 2026 the United States bought 68.50 per cent of Canada's goods exports, against 74.08 per cent a year earlier -- a one-year fall of 5.58 percentage points. That window is the lowest United States share in the twenty-nine-year monthly record, and unlike the previous low it stands alone: the next-lowest window, ending April 2026, reads 68.99 per cent, half a percentage point higher. The single month is sharper than the window. Exports to the United States fell 6.6 per cent from June to July, ending a run of five straight monthly rises, while exports to every other country together rose 7.4 per cent to the highest monthly level this record holds. In July, 33.7 per cent of Canada's goods exports went somewhere other than the United States. The reallocation is still narrow: 52.7 per cent of the twelve-month rest-of-world rise is the United Kingdom alone, and on the customs record the all-countries unwrought gold, silver and platinum-group-metals series is up 43.9 per cent window on window. Motor vehicles found almost no other buyer -- a 9.7 per cent fall in United States-bound sales against a rest-of-world gain worth 5.6 cents of every dollar lost.
2026-08-26 · First reading
Next evidence
The named releases that could change a row of this Monitor, and what each could change.
Headline US export shareNext release September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Could change
New customs-basis monthly observations or revisions to this source edition.
Sectoral compositionNext release September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Could change
The next release or a broader verified sector breakdown.
CUSMA qualificationNext release September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Could change
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
Origin-versus-export routingNext release September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Could change
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
Export price and volumeNext release September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Could change
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
Daily truck crossingsNext release Next release: not stated in the captured evidence. Recheck when new daily observations or revisions appear.
Next release: not stated in the captured evidence. Recheck when new daily observations or revisions appear.
Could change
New days or revisions. A full month after the duties took effect would extend coverage, not identify their effect.
Provinces and statesNext release September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
Could change
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
The tariff-status gapNext release No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Could change
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
2026-12-08Next release Canadian international merchandise trade, October 2026 (Statistics Canada)
Row
2026-12-08
Next release
Canadian international merchandise trade, October 2026 (Statistics Canada)
Could change
The next matched trade month and historical revisions. Date stated in the captured November 4 issuer article.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
New customs-basis monthly observations or revisions to this source edition.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release or a broader verified sector breakdown.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
September headline merchandise trade was released November 4. The issuer schedules October headline trade for December 8; this panel’s source family may have a different release date.
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
2026-12-08
Canadian international merchandise trade, October 2026 (Statistics Canada)
The next matched trade month and historical revisions. Date stated in the captured November 4 issuer article.
The share of Canada's total goods exports, on a customs basis, that go to the United States.
Blocked
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
exports to us
$51,399,630,000
2026-09-01
exports to all
$73,682,993,000
2026-09-01
us share pct
69.76%
2026-09-01 — exports_to_us / exports_to_all * 100
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Which industry sectors carry Canada's exports to the United States.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
exports to us total
$48,875,473,325
2026-09-01
exports to all total
$73,682,996,404
2026-09-01
exports to us agriculture
$1,317,581,364
2026-09-01
exports to us mining
$14,427,360,537
2026-09-01
exports to us manufacturing
$32,011,973,933
2026-09-01
exports to us wholesale
$802,506,552
2026-09-01
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: The selected sectors are agriculture, mining, manufacturing and wholesale trade. They cover about 99.39% of U.S.-bound exports in the retained June 2026 single-month diagnostic: CAD 51,710,493,629 of CAD 52,026,563,419, in current dollars. This retained percentage is not a current coverage estimate. The remaining 0.61% (CAD 316,069,790) includes other sectors. Utilities is excluded because the source uses the same label for two different categories; the selected breakdown does not resolve those categories. It is not a full sector census.
The share of trade with the United States that already qualifies for treatment under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
cusma exports
$52,288,842,000
2026-09-01
total exports
$73,682,993,400
2026-09-01
cusma export share pct
70.96%
2026-09-01 — cusma_exports / total_exports * 100
cusma imports
$37,468,527,700
2026-09-01
total imports
$70,722,765,100
2026-09-01
cusma import share pct
52.98%
2026-09-01 — cusma_imports / total_imports * 100
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: Narrows the tariff-status evidence gap this Monitor states separately; does not close it. This is the free-trade-agreement qualification dimension, not a duty assessment, tariff-preference utilization measure, or effective tariff rate.
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: Separates a shipment route from a rule-of-origin determination; a positive or negative gap asserts nothing about tariff evasion or transshipment intent.
Whether a change in the dollar value of exports comes from prices or from volumes.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
export price index
157.7 (index (2017=100))
2026-09-01
export volume index
102.1 (index (2017=100))
2026-09-01
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: Laspeyres fixed-weighted series only; the Paasche-weighted and balance-of-payments-basis alternatives exist in the cube and are not fetched (a documented, single weighting-basis choice, not a claim about StatCan's preferred convention). The quarterly sibling table 12-10-0169-01 is rights-registered but not yet fetched.
The series above are labelled by the month they summarize (aggregation bucket START dates); the underlying table's own latest observation is 2026-09-30, restated below.
Latest daily observation: 2026-09-30 — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: Canada totals only. Monthly values are arithmetic means of captured daily counts, which remain archived. 2025-07 is PARTIAL: 4 weekdays and 2 weekend days, 2025-07-26 through 2025-07-31; do not read it as a complete-month trend point.
Canada's total trade in services with the world, read beside the goods rows above. Moved out of the state matrix and into this Monitor's coverage gaps by editorial decision: this table carries no United States-specific partner breakdown, so it is not presented as a United States-exposure reading. The evidence stays acquired and registered on the record, the same as every other row, until United States-partner services data is captured, and it is refreshed at each maintained reading with the goods rows.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
services exports
$21,373,000,000
2026-09-01
services imports
$21,047,000,000
2026-09-01
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: This table carries no United States-specific partner breakdown; these are Canada's total services trade with the world, read beside the goods rows, not a US-specific services measure.
Merchandise trade between Canada and the United States by tariff classification section, at the Canada level, plus each province's largest single United States-state destination for domestic exports and that state's share of the province's United States-bound domestic exports. The Canada-level figures in this row read 'total exports' and the province figures read 'domestic exports' -- two different quantities from the same table, never added together or divided by one another.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
exports to us
$51,399,630,000
2026-09-01
imports from us
$32,049,561,000
2026-09-01
Each province’s largest United States-state destination, domestic exports only
For each province, its largest single U.S.-state domestic-export destination and that state's share of the province's total U.S.-bound domestic exports, all HS sections, single latest reference month. 'Domestic exports' (excludes re-exports) is the only Trade member this cube populates at the provincial level -- the headline United States export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor reads 'Total exports' (includes re-exports), a different quantity, never merged with this row. Both sit on this page, and they do not reconcile: Canada's total exports to the United States for 2026-09-01 are $51,399,630,000, while the ten provinces' domestic exports to the United States sum to $47,231,608,000 -- a difference of $4,168,022,000. That difference is not decomposed here. The two figures differ in the cube's Trade member (total exports include re-exports; domestic exports do not) AND in its geographic coverage (the ten provinces exclude the territories and any province-not-specified member carried at the Canada level), and this record does not apportion the gap between those causes or divide either figure by the other. 'Other states', a residual cube member naming no single jurisdiction, is excluded from the largest-destination search. Where two states are exactly tied for largest in a province, this record refuses to break the tie by list position: it states that no single largest destination exists that month rather than naming whichever member the cube happens to list first. No tie occurs in this reading. Every province's 50 named states plus the District of Columbia and the residual are reconciled against that province's own independently fetched total before any share is derived.
Province
Total to United States (domestic exports)
Largest United States-state destination
Value
Share of the province’s United States-bound domestic exports
Date
Newfoundland and Labrador
$620,133,000
Louisiana
$166,802,000
26.90%
2026-09-01
Prince Edward Island
$166,300,000
New Jersey
$21,562,000
12.97%
2026-09-01
Nova Scotia
$369,140,000
Illinois
$70,562,000
19.12%
2026-09-01
New Brunswick
$1,216,326,000
Massachusetts
$420,789,000
34.60%
2026-09-01
Quebec
$7,192,264,000
Connecticut
$854,317,000
11.88%
2026-09-01
Ontario
$17,143,916,000
Michigan
$3,793,609,000
22.13%
2026-09-01
Manitoba
$1,051,664,000
Minnesota
$174,460,000
16.59%
2026-09-01
Saskatchewan
$2,320,137,000
Minnesota
$402,063,000
17.33%
2026-09-01
Alberta
$14,811,343,000
Illinois
$6,284,228,000
42.43%
2026-09-01
British Columbia
$2,340,385,000
Washington, State
$590,387,000
25.23%
2026-09-01
Latest monthly observation: 2026-09 (2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30) — on or after the date the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22). Timing alone does not identify tariff effects or duties paid.
Limitation: The Canada-level series above are 2 of 15 x 4 x 53 x 22 cube members; the HS-section-by-province-by-state full micro-cut is still not fetched (controlled storage; fetch only what a reading needs). The province x US-state concentration reading above fetches all 15 x 10 x 52 x 1 province-by-state combinations at the all-HS-sections total, on the cube's 'Domestic exports' Trade member -- the only one populated at provincial grain, verified directly against the issuer's own published cube. The headline United States export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor reads 'Total exports', a different, broader quantity never merged with this row's provincial figures.
What no government publication states: the actual tariff coverage and effective rate applied to Canadian exports.
Blocked
Evidence gap
What share of Canada's exports to the United States is actually subject to tariffs right now, and at what effective rates?
What is missing: No official source on either side of the border publishes a continuously updated, machine-readable statement of the tariff status of Canadian exports. The operative documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but the duty actually applied to a shipment depends on USMCA qualification, product classification, exclusions, stacking rules, and later modifications — determinations spread across executive orders, proclamations, agency notices, and rulings, with no consolidated official series.
Consequence: The U.S. Exposure Brief shows the export record beside the dated tariff actions, but it cannot state what fraction of U.S.-bound exports is tariffed or at what effective rate — any such coverage percentage would be an outside model, not a reading of the record. Public claims about 'x per cent of exports now face tariffs' rest on estimates whose assumptions are rarely published.
What would close it: Either government publishing a continuously updated, openly licensed series of duty collections or tariff coverage on Canada–U.S. trade at product grain — or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Directly observed
United States share of total Canadian exports (customs basis)
Sectoral composition of exports to the United States (NAICS)
Trade under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)
United States origin-vs-export import gap (transshipment observable)
Export price and volume indexes (customs basis, seasonally adjusted)
Trucks entering Canada, daily leading indicator
Trade in services (total services, all countries, seasonally adjusted)
Merchandise trade by HS section, Canada and United States, and province x US-state export concentration