A dated check has been recorded since the first reading — see the watch, below, for what changed, what held, and what remains unresolved.
What arrives next
When
What arrives
What it can and cannot show
2026-09-08 date stated in the document
Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective
Legally effective on this date under the Department of Finance Canada's own published schedule. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments.
2026-10-06 issuer-stated date
Statistics Canada's monthly trade record for August Period covered: 2026-08-01 — 2026-08-31
Only partly after the United States duties (2026-08-22)
Ends before Canada's counter-tariffs (2026-09-08)
The record's own next test of whether the United States share holds its July low. The reading beside this row states how its period sits against each action; this note states no relation of its own. A single month is not a trend, and no reading here attributes a movement to any action.
no date pinned
The first trade record covering the September reference month Period covered: 2026-09-01 — 2026-09-30 No source this record has captured pins a release date for the September reference month.
Entirely after the United States duties (2026-08-22)
Only partly after Canada's counter-tariffs (2026-09-08)
Nothing in this record separates price from volume, or one country's action from the other's.
This is the Monitor's first maintained reading. Every monthly row now carries the July reference month that Statistics Canada published at the start of September, checked against the first reading rather than restated; the daily truck row is the one exception, because the issuer has not updated its own table since the first reading. The share of Canada's goods exports going to the United States fell to the lowest level this record holds, and the month's fall ended a run of consecutive monthly rises in the United States-bound level. Every observation on this page still ends before the date the United States duties became legally effective, and before the date Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective, so no effect of either can be observed here and none is claimed. No institution publishes a continuous measure of what those actions actually cover.
8 sections, one question each. Select a card for its evidence.
State matrix
Headline US export shareState The United States receives most of Canada's goods exports, and its share over the latest twelve months is the lowest this record holds
The United States receives most of Canada's goods exports, and its share over the latest twelve months is the lowest this record holds
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the monthly share of total merchandise exports going to the United States, restated from Statistics Canada's international trade in goods release and compared against the previous reading.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after August 22, 2026, the date the duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it.
Trigger
A further month that moves the share away from its low, or a revision that changes an earlier month's reading.
Limitation
This reading is checked against the first reading, not against a long maintained history. The observation itself ends before the duties became legally effective, so no tariff effect can be read from it.
Sectoral compositionState A small number of major sectors carry nearly all of Canada's exports to the United States
A small number of major sectors carry nearly all of Canada's exports to the United States
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: a controlled slice of major industry sectors within Statistics Canada's international trade by industry table; not every sector is restated (see limitation).
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Trigger
The next release, or a future update fetching the remaining unfetched industries.
Limitation
This section fetches four sectors; the remainder, including an ambiguous Utilities entry, is not enumerated. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
CUSMA qualificationState Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement
Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the monthly share of exports and imports qualifying under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, from Statistics Canada's trade-under-CUSMA table. This is the closest observable this record holds to the tariff-status gap stated below; it narrows that gap without closing it.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Trigger
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
Limitation
Trade-agreement qualification is not a duty assessment, a tariff-preference utilization measure, or an effective tariff rate. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
Origin-versus-export routingState Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share
Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the gap between where an import is recorded as exported from and where it is recorded as originating, from Statistics Canada's country-of-origin trade table.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Trigger
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
Limitation
A gap between origin and export country describes a shipment route; it asserts nothing about tariff evasion or transshipment intent. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
Export price and volumeState The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume
The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: fixed-weighted export price and volume indexes on a customs basis, seasonally adjusted, from Statistics Canada's international trade price and volume tables.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Trigger
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
Limitation
Only the fixed-weighted indexes are fetched; an alternative weighting and the quarterly sibling table are not. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
Daily truck crossingsState A minority of trucks entering Canada carry United States plates, read daily rather than monthly
A minority of trucks entering Canada carry United States plates, read daily rather than monthly
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: the daily count of trucks entering Canada and the share that are United States-plated, from the Canada Border Services Agency's daily entry table, aggregated to a monthly average for this page.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: not stated. The issuer has not updated this table since before the first reading; the next monthly aggregate point is added when new days accrue.
Trigger
A sustained move in the United States-plated share, or the series reaching a complete month after the duties became legally effective.
Limitation
The first monthly bucket is a partial month and is not a trend point. This row did not move at this reading: the issuer's own daily table still ends on the same day it ended at the first reading, so the monthly average shown for its last complete month is unchanged. It remains the Monitor's only row whose latest observation falls after the proclamations were signed, and it still does not reach the date the duties became legally effective.
Provinces and statesState For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor
For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Directly observed: each province's exports to each individual United States state, all product sections combined, from Statistics Canada's provincial and state trade table. The largest state and its share are identified for every province; Canada-level merchandise trade by tariff-classification section is also read from the same table.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Trigger
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
Limitation
This province-by-state reading uses Statistics Canada's 'domestic exports' figures, which leave out goods shipped onward through Canada without being made here. That is a different, narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor, and the two are never added together. A leftover category the table calls 'Other states' is not counted as a single state when finding each province's biggest customer. Where two states are exactly tied for largest in a province, this record refuses to break the tie and states that no single largest destination exists that month; no tie occurs in this reading. The full breakdown by product type, province, and state together is still not fetched. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
The tariff-status gapState No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates
No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates
Direction
—
Confidence basis
Absence, not a measurement: the operative tariff documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but no consolidated official series states what share of exports is actually tariffed, at what effective rate, once qualification, classification, exclusions, and stacking rules are applied.
Distance to target
No registered target or benchmark
Next release
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Trigger
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Limitation
Any stated coverage percentage beyond what a government has itself published would be an outside model, not a reading of this record.
The United States receives most of Canada's goods exports, and its share over the latest twelve months is the lowest this record holds
—
Directly observed: the monthly share of total merchandise exports going to the United States, restated from Statistics Canada's international trade in goods release and compared against the previous reading.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after August 22, 2026, the date the duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it.
A further month that moves the share away from its low, or a revision that changes an earlier month's reading.
This reading is checked against the first reading, not against a long maintained history. The observation itself ends before the duties became legally effective, so no tariff effect can be read from it.
A small number of major sectors carry nearly all of Canada's exports to the United States
—
Directly observed: a controlled slice of major industry sectors within Statistics Canada's international trade by industry table; not every sector is restated (see limitation).
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
The next release, or a future update fetching the remaining unfetched industries.
This section fetches four sectors; the remainder, including an ambiguous Utilities entry, is not enumerated. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
Most exports and roughly half of imports already qualify under the trade agreement
—
Directly observed: the monthly share of exports and imports qualifying under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, from Statistics Canada's trade-under-CUSMA table. This is the closest observable this record holds to the tariff-status gap stated below; it narrows that gap without closing it.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
Trade-agreement qualification is not a duty assessment, a tariff-preference utilization measure, or an effective tariff rate. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
Most imports recorded as coming from the United States also originate there, with a smaller routed-through share
—
Directly observed: the gap between where an import is recorded as exported from and where it is recorded as originating, from Statistics Canada's country-of-origin trade table.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
A gap between origin and export country describes a shipment route; it asserts nothing about tariff evasion or transshipment intent. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
The record separates how much of any export-value change is price and how much is volume
—
Directly observed: fixed-weighted export price and volume indexes on a customs basis, seasonally adjusted, from Statistics Canada's international trade price and volume tables.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
Only the fixed-weighted indexes are fetched; an alternative weighting and the quarterly sibling table are not. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
A minority of trucks entering Canada carry United States plates, read daily rather than monthly
—
Directly observed: the daily count of trucks entering Canada and the share that are United States-plated, from the Canada Border Services Agency's daily entry table, aggregated to a monthly average for this page.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: not stated. The issuer has not updated this table since before the first reading; the next monthly aggregate point is added when new days accrue.
A sustained move in the United States-plated share, or the series reaching a complete month after the duties became legally effective.
The first monthly bucket is a partial month and is not a trend point. This row did not move at this reading: the issuer's own daily table still ends on the same day it ended at the first reading, so the monthly average shown for its last complete month is unchanged. It remains the Monitor's only row whose latest observation falls after the proclamations were signed, and it still does not reach the date the duties became legally effective.
For every province, one United States state buys more of its domestic exports than any other -- and how much of a province's domestic-export sales to the United States that one state accounts for varies widely from province to province. Domestic exports leave out goods shipped onward through Canada, so this is a narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor
—
Directly observed: each province's exports to each individual United States state, all product sections combined, from Statistics Canada's provincial and state trade table. The largest state and its share are identified for every province; Canada-level merchandise trade by tariff-classification section is also read from the same table.
No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
This province-by-state reading uses Statistics Canada's 'domestic exports' figures, which leave out goods shipped onward through Canada without being made here. That is a different, narrower total than the Canada-level export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor, and the two are never added together. A leftover category the table calls 'Other states' is not counted as a single state when finding each province's biggest customer. Where two states are exactly tied for largest in a province, this record refuses to break the tie and states that no single largest destination exists that month; no tie occurs in this reading. The full breakdown by product type, province, and state together is still not fetched. The observation ends before the duties became legally effective.
No institution publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates
—
Absence, not a measurement: the operative tariff documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but no consolidated official series states what share of exports is actually tariffed, at what effective rate, once qualification, classification, exclusions, and stacking rules are applied.
No registered target or benchmark
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Any stated coverage percentage beyond what a government has itself published would be an outside model, not a reading of this record.
Cross-domain tensions
TemporalThe daily truck count and the monthly trade releases move on different clocks, so the newest evidence on this page is not the most complete evidence.Headline US export share ↔ Daily truck crossings
Beyond this recordTrade-agreement qualification narrows what this record can say about tariff exposure; it does not close the gap this Monitor states directly.CUSMA qualification ↔ the record beyond this Monitor
MeasurementSectoral composition and the province-to-state trade table describe overlapping flows on different classification bases, so their figures should not be added together.Sectoral composition ↔ Provinces and states
Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-04
Canada's trade with the United States sets prices, jobs, and policy choices across the economy, and the two countries' governments are now applying and answering tariff actions against each other. This view holds the record's own trade tables together in one place: what is directly observed, what a trade-agreement qualification narrows without closing, and what no institution yet measures at all.
How to read the dates: the evidence cutoff is the date through which Countability checked evidence for this Monitor. Each "as of" date shows when that specific figure was measured. "Oldest member reading" shows the age of the slowest-updating source. How to read the clock →
The watch
A Monitor is a maintained reading: it persists between releases and is re-checked when named evidence arrives. This is its history — every dated check, whether the answer changed or held.
Since the last reading
New periodEvidence 2026-09-03
Third reading, on the July 2026 trade record, and the share set a record. Over the twelve months through July 2026 the United States bought 68.50 per cent of Canada's goods exports, against 74.08 per cent a year earlier -- a one-year fall of 5.58 percentage points. That window is the lowest United States share in the twenty-nine-year monthly record, and unlike the previous low it stands alone: the next-lowest window, ending April 2026, reads 68.99 per cent, half a percentage point higher. The single month is sharper than the window. Exports to the United States fell 6.6 per cent from June to July, ending a run of five straight monthly rises, while exports to every other country together rose 7.4 per cent to the highest monthly level this record holds. In July, 33.7 per cent of Canada's goods exports went somewhere other than the United States. The reallocation is still narrow: 52.7 per cent of the twelve-month rest-of-world rise is the United Kingdom alone, and on the customs record the all-countries unwrought gold, silver and platinum-group-metals series is up 43.9 per cent window on window. Motor vehicles found almost no other buyer -- a 9.7 per cent fall in United States-bound sales against a rest-of-world gain worth 5.6 cents of every dollar lost.
The break deepened rather than held. Through the spring the share sat within a tenth of a point of a low it kept not quite setting; July set it outright, by half a point, and did so through the United States side falling rather than through the rest of the world merely rising. What has not changed is the shape of the reallocation: outside the bullion channel it stays modest, and about seven of every ten export dollars still come from one customer.
The full check
What happened: Statistics Canada published the July 2026 international merchandise trade record on 3 September 2026 at 08:30, its own recorded release time, verified in the issuer's own cube metadata before any figure was read and committed as evidence. Both trade Resolutions were advanced to the 2026-09-04 capture under an explicit supersession chain: 48 publications re-pinned and 92 values re-derived from the newly archived bytes, each publication's series coordinate proven against its own already-published June figures before it was moved. The June and May vintages are retained on the record, superseded and unrewritten.
Limitation: All values are nominal, and partner shares are gross shipment values, not domestic value added; nothing here separates price from volume. Every monthly value behind the window remains revisable, and this release itself restated June. July 2026 ends before 22 August 2026, the date the United States duties became legally effective under the proclamations, and before 8 September 2026, the date Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective. No month in this reading covers a single day under either measure, so no effect of either can be observed in it, and none is claimed. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments.
Next trigger: The August 2026 trade record, which the issuer's own July release article states is scheduled for 6 October 2026. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after the date the United States duties became legally effective, but only its last ten days fall on or after that date -- it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them.
2026-09-03 · New period
Third reading, on the July 2026 trade record, and the share set a record. Over the twelve months through July 2026 the United States bought 68.50 per cent of Canada's goods exports, against 74.08 per cent a year earlier -- a one-year fall of 5.58 percentage points. That window is the lowest United States share in the twenty-nine-year monthly record, and unlike the previous low it stands alone: the next-lowest window, ending April 2026, reads 68.99 per cent, half a percentage point higher. The single month is sharper than the window. Exports to the United States fell 6.6 per cent from June to July, ending a run of five straight monthly rises, while exports to every other country together rose 7.4 per cent to the highest monthly level this record holds. In July, 33.7 per cent of Canada's goods exports went somewhere other than the United States. The reallocation is still narrow: 52.7 per cent of the twelve-month rest-of-world rise is the United Kingdom alone, and on the customs record the all-countries unwrought gold, silver and platinum-group-metals series is up 43.9 per cent window on window. Motor vehicles found almost no other buyer -- a 9.7 per cent fall in United States-bound sales against a rest-of-world gain worth 5.6 cents of every dollar lost.
2026-08-26 · First reading
Next evidence
The named releases that could change a row of this Monitor, and what each could change.
Headline US export shareNext release Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after August 22, 2026, the date the duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after August 22, 2026, the date the duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it.
Could change
A further month that moves the share away from its low, or a revision that changes an earlier month's reading.
Sectoral compositionNext release Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Could change
The next release, or a future update fetching the remaining unfetched industries.
CUSMA qualificationNext release Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Could change
The next release, or any change in which goods qualify under the agreement.
Origin-versus-export routingNext release Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Could change
The next release, or a sustained widening or narrowing of the gap.
Export price and volumeNext release Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Could change
The next release, or a divergence opening between the two indexes.
Daily truck crossingsNext release Next release: not stated. The issuer has not updated this table since before the first reading; the next monthly aggregate point is added when new days accrue.
Next release: not stated. The issuer has not updated this table since before the first reading; the next monthly aggregate point is added when new days accrue.
Could change
A sustained move in the United States-plated share, or the series reaching a complete month after the duties became legally effective.
Provinces and statesNext release Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month.
Could change
The next release, updating every province's exports-by-state figures for a new month, or a province's largest destination changing.
The tariff-status gapNext release No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Could change
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
2026-10-06Next release Canadian international merchandise trade, August 2026 (Statistics Canada)
Row
2026-10-06
Next release
Canadian international merchandise trade, August 2026 (Statistics Canada)
Could change
The twelve-month U.S. share and whether July's record low holds, the U.S.-bound level after July's fall ended a five-month run of rises, and the direction of the unwrought-precious-metals channel. This is also the first release covering a reference month with any day on or after 22 August 2026, the date the United States duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so the month is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it. Date confirmed: the issuer's own July release article states that August data are scheduled for release on October 6, and that article is captured and pinned in this record.
Next release: October 6, 2026, the date Statistics Canada's own July release article states for the August reference month. That August reference month is the first with any day on or after August 22, 2026, the date the duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so it is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it.
A further month that moves the share away from its low, or a revision that changes an earlier month's reading.
Next release: not stated. The issuer has not updated this table since before the first reading; the next monthly aggregate point is added when new days accrue.
A sustained move in the United States-plated share, or the series reaching a complete month after the duties became legally effective.
No scheduled release closes this gap; the trade-agreement qualification row above narrows it without closing it, and the dated tariff-actions record on this site states the operative documents directly.
Either government publishing a continuous, openly licensed tariff-coverage series, or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
2026-10-06
Canadian international merchandise trade, August 2026 (Statistics Canada)
The twelve-month U.S. share and whether July's record low holds, the U.S.-bound level after July's fall ended a five-month run of rises, and the direction of the unwrought-precious-metals channel. This is also the first release covering a reference month with any day on or after 22 August 2026, the date the United States duties became legally effective under the proclamations -- but only its last ten days fall on or after that date and its first twenty-one precede it, so the month is only partly after the duties, not entirely after them. The first reference month falling entirely after that date is September 2026, and this record holds no issuer-stated release date for it. Date confirmed: the issuer's own July release article states that August data are scheduled for release on October 6, and that article is captured and pinned in this record.
Which industry sectors carry Canada's exports to the United States.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
exports to us total
$47,030,335,201
2026-07-01
exports to all total
$73,175,632,585
2026-07-01
exports to us agriculture
$1,432,367,625
2026-07-01
exports to us mining
$14,400,177,030
2026-07-01
exports to us manufacturing
$30,056,148,516
2026-07-01
exports to us wholesale
$762,057,758
2026-07-01
Latest observation: 2026-07-01 — before the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) and before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: Four unambiguous top-level NAICS sectors fetched (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade), covering ~99.4% of exports to the United States at the current vintage (51,710,493,629 of 52,026,563,419 at 2026-06); this is a controlled slice of the cube's 904 industries, not an enumeration of all top-level sectors. The 0.61% residual (316,069,790) is every unfetched NAICS industry, including 'Utilities' -- excluded because two distinct cube members share that exact name and the fetch tool cannot disambiguate them by name alone.
The share of trade with the United States that already qualifies for treatment under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
cusma exports
$50,485,717,000
2026-07-01
total exports
$73,175,629,400
2026-07-01
cusma export share pct
68.99%
2026-07-01 — cusma_exports / total_exports * 100
cusma imports
$37,691,734,000
2026-07-01
total imports
$71,965,729,900
2026-07-01
cusma import share pct
52.37%
2026-07-01 — cusma_imports / total_imports * 100
Latest observation: 2026-07-01 — before the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) and before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: Narrows the tariff-status evidence gap this Monitor states separately; does not close it. This is the free-trade-agreement qualification dimension, not a duty assessment, tariff-preference utilization measure, or effective tariff rate.
Latest observation: 2026-07-01 — before the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) and before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: Separates a shipment route from a rule-of-origin determination; a positive or negative gap asserts nothing about tariff evasion or transshipment intent.
Whether a change in the dollar value of exports comes from prices or from volumes.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
export price index
151.3 (index (2017=100))
2026-07-01
export volume index
105.7 (index (2017=100))
2026-07-01
Latest observation: 2026-07-01 — before the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) and before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: Laspeyres fixed-weighted series only; the Paasche-weighted and balance-of-payments-basis alternatives exist in the cube and are not fetched (a documented, single weighting-basis choice, not a claim about StatCan's preferred convention). The quarterly sibling table 12-10-0169-01 is rights-registered but not yet fetched.
The series above are labelled by the month they summarize (aggregation bucket START dates); the underlying table's own latest observation is 2026-07-31, restated below.
Latest observation: 2026-07-31 — after the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) but before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: Canada-level aggregate only (2 of 128 x 67 x 5 cube members). The full daily observations are preserved in this record's internal archive; the monthly series below is a controlled aggregation (arithmetic mean of daily counts within the month) for dashboard consistency, not a discard of the daily grain. The first monthly bucket (2025-06) is a 4-day PARTIAL month (2025-06-27 through 2025-06-30, two of them a weekend), not a complete month like every other bucket -- do not read it as a trend point.
Canada's total trade in services with the world, read beside the goods rows above. Moved out of the state matrix and into this Monitor's coverage gaps by editorial decision: this table carries no United States-specific partner breakdown, so it is not presented as a United States-exposure reading. The evidence stays acquired and registered on the record, the same as every other row, until United States-partner services data is captured, and it is refreshed at each maintained reading with the goods rows.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
services exports
$21,039,000,000
2026-07-01
services imports
$20,732,000,000
2026-07-01
Latest observation: 2026-07-01 — before the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) and before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: This table carries no United States-specific partner breakdown; these are Canada's total services trade with the world, read beside the goods rows, not a US-specific services measure.
Merchandise trade between Canada and the United States by tariff classification section, at the Canada level, plus each province's largest single United States-state destination for domestic exports and that state's share of the province's United States-bound domestic exports. The Canada-level figures in this row read 'total exports' and the province figures read 'domestic exports' -- two different quantities from the same table, never added together or divided by one another.
Series
Latest value
Date / formula
exports to us
$49,459,484,000
2026-07-01
imports from us
$32,410,592,000
2026-07-01
Each province’s largest United States-state destination, domestic exports only
For each province, its largest single U.S.-state domestic-export destination and that state's share of the province's total U.S.-bound domestic exports, all HS sections, single latest reference month. 'Domestic exports' (excludes re-exports) is the only Trade member this cube populates at the provincial level -- the headline United States export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor reads 'Total exports' (includes re-exports), a different quantity, never merged with this row. Both sit on this page, and they do not reconcile: Canada's total exports to the United States for 2026-07-01 are $49,459,484,000, while the ten provinces' domestic exports to the United States sum to $45,568,330,000 -- a difference of $3,891,154,000. That difference is not decomposed here. The two figures differ in the cube's Trade member (total exports include re-exports; domestic exports do not) AND in its geographic coverage (the ten provinces exclude the territories and any province-not-specified member carried at the Canada level), and this record does not apportion the gap between those causes or divide either figure by the other. 'Other states', a residual cube member naming no single jurisdiction, is excluded from the largest-destination search. Where two states are exactly tied for largest in a province, this record refuses to break the tie by list position: it states that no single largest destination exists that month rather than naming whichever member the cube happens to list first. No tie occurs in this reading. Every province's 50 named states plus the District of Columbia and the residual are reconciled against that province's own independently fetched total before any share is derived.
Province
Total to United States (domestic exports)
Largest United States-state destination
Value
Share of the province’s United States-bound domestic exports
Date
Newfoundland and Labrador
$713,757,000
New Jersey
$246,104,000
34.48%
2026-07-01
Prince Edward Island
$143,832,000
New Jersey
$23,007,000
16.00%
2026-07-01
Nova Scotia
$398,823,000
Massachusetts
$90,885,000
22.79%
2026-07-01
New Brunswick
$1,419,660,000
Massachusetts
$532,022,000
37.48%
2026-07-01
Quebec
$6,372,309,000
New York
$505,551,000
7.93%
2026-07-01
Ontario
$16,084,231,000
Michigan
$3,741,743,000
23.26%
2026-07-01
Manitoba
$1,023,895,000
Minnesota
$188,528,000
18.41%
2026-07-01
Saskatchewan
$2,082,723,000
California
$445,435,000
21.39%
2026-07-01
Alberta
$14,796,429,000
Illinois
$6,296,479,000
42.55%
2026-07-01
British Columbia
$2,532,671,000
Washington, State
$558,531,000
22.05%
2026-07-01
Latest observation: 2026-07-01 — before the proclamations were signed (2026-07-20) and before the duties became legally effective (2026-08-22).
Limitation: The Canada-level series above are 2 of 15 x 4 x 53 x 22 cube members; the HS-section-by-province-by-state full micro-cut is still not fetched (controlled storage; fetch only what a reading needs). The province x US-state concentration reading above fetches all 15 x 10 x 52 x 1 province-by-state combinations at the all-HS-sections total, on the cube's 'Domestic exports' Trade member -- the only one populated at provincial grain, verified directly against the issuer's own published cube. The headline United States export share reported elsewhere on this Monitor reads 'Total exports', a different, broader quantity never merged with this row's provincial figures.
What no government publication states: the actual tariff coverage and effective rate applied to Canadian exports.
Blocked
Evidence gap
What share of Canada's exports to the United States is actually subject to tariffs right now, and at what effective rates?
What is missing: No official source on either side of the border publishes a continuously updated, machine-readable statement of the tariff status of Canadian exports. The operative documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but the duty actually applied to a shipment depends on USMCA qualification, product classification, exclusions, stacking rules, and later modifications — determinations spread across executive orders, proclamations, agency notices, and rulings, with no consolidated official series.
Consequence: The U.S. Exposure Brief shows the export record beside the dated tariff actions, but it cannot state what fraction of U.S.-bound exports is tariffed or at what effective rate — any such coverage percentage would be an outside model, not a reading of the record. Public claims about 'x per cent of exports now face tariffs' rest on estimates whose assumptions are rarely published.
What would close it: Either government publishing a continuously updated, openly licensed series of duty collections or tariff coverage on Canada–U.S. trade at product grain — or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.
Directly observed
United States share of total Canadian exports (customs basis)
Sectoral composition of exports to the United States (NAICS)
Trade under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)
United States origin-vs-export import gap (transshipment observable)
Export price and volume indexes (customs basis, seasonally adjusted)
Trucks entering Canada, daily leading indicator
Trade in services (total services, all countries, seasonally adjusted)
Merchandise trade by HS section, Canada and United States, and province x US-state export concentration