CorrectedEvidence through 2026-08-02
Next: The next annual installed-capacity reference year (which will show whether the recent build pace held), each further month of measured generation, and the next Energy Future vintage, which will restate the required pace…
Every official scenario requires an electricity buildout pace beyond any twelve-year stretch on record -- generation needs 1.7 to 3.1 times the fastest such stretch. Capacity has accelerated; generation rose through 2025 but hasn't sustained that pace.
The answer
Every scenario in the Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future dataset -- including its most conservative -- assumes electricity supply now grows several times faster than the same dataset's own recorded 2005-2023 average pace, and faster than any twelve-year stretch inside that same record. On generation, the scenarios' mid-horizon levels require between roughly seven and fourteen times the recorded full-period average pace, and between roughly 1.7 and 3.1 times the fastest twelve-year stretch the record contains (2010 to 2022); on installed capacity, between roughly two and four times the full-period average, and between roughly 1.6 and 2.6 times the fastest twelve-year stretch (2011 to 2023). The measured record since the projections' history ends is split: Statistics Canada's capacity series shows a strong recent build year, close to the middle scenarios' required average pace, while measured generation increased from 2023 through 2025 but its freshest trailing-twelve-month window sits slightly below the year-earlier one -- generation has not yet shown a durable, scenario-consistent acceleration. The buildout, so far, is visible in capacity; whether it has reached delivered supply is not yet established.
| Projected total change over the window | +178,654.9 GWh |
|---|---|
| Required average pace | 14,887.9 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +26,789.5 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,488.3 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 10.00× |
| Projected change over the window | +28.7% |
The scenario's mid-horizon generation level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
What this means for the decision
Any plan priced on the official scenarios' electricity levels is priced on a sustained pace the record has not shown over any comparable twelve-year stretch. The capacity series says construction has accelerated; the generation series says delivered supply grew through 2025 but has not sustained that growth into its freshest window -- no durable, scenario-consistent acceleration is established yet. Reading either series alone overstates certainty in one direction -- both are on this page, each on its own basis, and each new monthly release tests the projection's early years directly.
The key uncertainty
Generation follows demand as well as capability: a flat generation year under flat demand says little about what the system could deliver if the projected load arrives. The scenarios' near-term years are themselves modelled, not measured -- the dataset's scenario blocks diverge before the latest calendar years -- and no public national series measures the connection-queue demand that would show whether the projected load is actually forming.
What would settle it
The next annual installed-capacity reference year (which will show whether the recent build pace held), each further month of measured generation, and the next Energy Future vintage, which will restate the required pace from a newer baseline.
Data-centre load, electrification, and industrial growth are usually discussed as demand stories. The supply side has a harder edge: the official national scenarios -- including the most conservative one -- all assume the electricity system sustains a pace above every comparable twelve-year stretch in the record those same scenarios carry. Whether that break with the sustained pace of the past is underway is checkable, month by month, from the measured record. This Brief holds the two side by side: what the scenarios require, and what the system has delivered.
Evidence reviewed through 2026-08-02 · 9 cited sources · 4 member Resolutions · 9 chapters
Resolution lineages behind this Brief: The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation… → · What crosses the border: Canada's electricity exports, imports and international power lines, on both issuers' records → · Who generates Canada's electricity, from what, and who buys it: two decades of the annual survey record → · Statistics Canada's measured electricity record: annual installed capacity through 2024 and monthly generation through… →
Refreshed when Statistics Canada publishes new monthly generation (table 25-10-0015-01, monthly) or annual installed capacity (table 25-10-0022-01, annual), or when the Canada Energy Regulator publishes the next Energy Future vintage -- whichever arrives first. The most consequential pending evidence is the next annual capacity reference year and each further month of measured generation, which together test whether the projected supply inflection is appearing.
Chapter 1§
The required pace
What the scenarios' mid-horizon levels require of national generation, against the dataset's own recorded history -- the central arithmetic this Brief exists to state.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 621,540.0 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2023, Current Measures rows, rounded to one decimal. The 2023 national total is… |
| 2035, Current Measures scenario | 800,194.9 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2035, Scenario='Current Measures', rounded to one decimal. The issuer's modelled level under… |
| 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario | 871,670.3 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2035, Scenario='Canada Net-zero', rounded to one decimal. The issuer's modelled level on its… |
| 2035, Higher scenario | 860,382.8 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2035, Scenario='Higher Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The issuer's bracket where GDP… |
| 2035, Lower scenario | 756,146.3 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2035, Scenario='Lower Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The issuer's bracket where the same… |
The evidence behind this chapter: The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation… →
Chapter 2§
What the scenarios assume
The scenario levels behind the required pace, including the issuer's own longer-horizon levels and its near-term modelled path -- the years the dataset models even though the calendar has passed them.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2050, Current Measures scenario | 974,993.2 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2050, Scenario='Current Measures', rounded to one decimal. |
| 2050, Canada Net-zero scenario | 1,323,010.3 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2050, Scenario='Canada Net-zero', rounded to one decimal. More than double the dataset's… |
| 2025, Current Measures scenario (modelled year) | 651,483.6 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2025, Scenario='Current Measures', rounded to one decimal. A modelled year: the dataset's… |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035 | +178,654.9 GWh | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 national generation level minus the dataset's own recorded 2023 level, in gigawatt hours. Positive means the scenario's level is higher than recorded 2023. Both figures come from… |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035 | +250,130.3 GWh | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in gigawatt hours, same file and summation. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035 | +238,842.8 GWh | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in gigawatt hours, same file and summation. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035 | +134,606.3 GWh | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in gigawatt hours, same file and summation. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2025 (the scenario's own near-term path) | +29,943.6 GWh | Numeric difference: the Current Measures scenario's modelled 2025 level minus the dataset's own recorded 2023 level, in gigawatt hours -- what the scenario's own near-term path assumes has already happened by 2025.… |
Chapter 3§
The delivered record
The same dataset's recorded history -- where the system actually started, and what every capacity scenario asks on top of it.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 (recorded history) | 594,750.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2005, in the Current Measures scenario's rows, rounded to one decimal. Historical rows… |
| 2010 (recorded history) | 567,389.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2010, Current Measures rows, rounded to one decimal. Pinned for the twelve-year… |
| 2022 (recorded history) | 647,380.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's nine primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2022, Current Measures rows, rounded to one decimal. Pinned for the twelve-year… |
| 2005 (recorded history) | 121,968.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's ten primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2005, Current Measures rows, rounded to one decimal. The capacity file's 2005 national total… |
| 2011 (recorded history) | 122,968.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's ten primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2011, Current Measures rows, rounded to one decimal. Pinned for the twelve-year… |
| 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 159,363.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | Sum over the file's ten primary-fuel rows for Region=Canada, Year=2023, Current Measures rows, rounded to one decimal. |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035 | +66,447.3 MW | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 national installed-capacity level minus the dataset's own recorded 2023 level, in megawatts. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035 | +93,070.2 MW | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in megawatts. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035 | +85,391.8 MW | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in megawatts. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035 | +58,058.7 MW | Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in megawatts. |
| Generation, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2010 to 2022) | +79,991.6 GWh | Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded history (correction, 2026-07-17). Computed by checking all seven… |
| Capacity, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2011 to 2023) | +36,394.8 MW | Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded history (correction, 2026-07-17), by the identical seven-window method as… |
Chapter 4§
The measured record since the history ends
Statistics Canada's survey record -- a separate basis, never merged with the projection dataset -- for what the system has installed and generated since the projections' recorded history ends.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (installed capacity) | 150,937.7 MW | institutional estimate | — | The table's published kilowatt value for reference year 2023, divided by 1,000 and rounded to one decimal, as published at capture on 2026-07-17. |
| 2024 (installed capacity; latest published reference year) | 156,388.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | The table's published kilowatt value for reference year 2024, divided by 1,000 and rounded to one decimal, as published at capture on 2026-07-17. |
| Calendar year 2023 (generation) | 615,332.8 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the table's twelve published monthly megawatt-hour values for 2023 at the national total coordinate, divided by 1,000 and rounded to one decimal… |
| Calendar year 2025 (generation) | 625,212.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the twelve published monthly values for 2025, divided by 1,000 and rounded to one decimal, as published at capture on 2026-07-17. |
| Twelve months ending April 2026 (generation) | 625,010.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the twelve published monthly values from May 2025 through April 2026 -- the latest published reference month -- divided by 1,000 and rounded to one… |
| Twelve months ending April 2025 (generation) | 626,923.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the twelve published monthly values from May 2024 through April 2025, divided by 1,000 and rounded to one decimal, as published at capture on 2026-07-17… |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| Installed capacity, 2023 to 2024 | +5,450.8 MW | Numeric difference: the 2024 level minus the 2023 level, in megawatts. Positive means capacity was added on the survey's own published levels. |
| Installed capacity, 2014 to 2024 (ten years) | +21,300.5 MW | Numeric difference: the 2024 level minus the 2014 level, in megawatts -- the decade change on the survey's own published levels. |
| Generation, calendar 2023 to calendar 2024 | -5,844.7 GWh | Numeric difference: calendar 2024 generation minus calendar 2023, in gigawatt hours. Raw totals; annual generation reflects demand and conditions in each year, not generating capability alone. |
| Generation, calendar 2023 to calendar 2025 | +9,879.6 GWh | Numeric difference: calendar 2025 generation minus calendar 2023, in gigawatt hours -- the two-year change since the reference year where the CER dataset's recorded history ends. Computed entirely within this table's… |
| Generation, trailing twelve months to April 2026 vs the year-earlier window | -1,912.9 GWh | Numeric difference: the twelve months ending April 2026 minus the twelve months ending April 2025, in gigawatt hours -- the freshest like-for-like window the published series supports. |
The evidence behind this chapter: Statistics Canada's measured electricity record: annual installed capacity through 2024 and monthly generation through… →
Chapter 5§
Who generates it, and from what
Beneath the delivery question sits a structural one: who generates Canada's electricity, from what, and for whom. Statistics Canada's annual survey answers it across two decades, on its own basis -- separate from the projection dataset and from the monthly record the other chapters read, and never merged with either. The published record shows a system rebuilt in place: the conventional thermal fleet exchanged coal-fired capacity for natural-gas-fired while barely changing total size, wind grew to generate more than any source except water within the survey's hydro, tidal, wind, solar and other group, and households have bought more electricity than mining and manufacturing combined in every published year for well over a decade. The chapter also records a measurement fact: the issuer's annual and monthly instruments do not publish the same total for the same year, and the distance between them is stated here rather than resolved.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity generated in Canada, reference year 2024, on the annual survey | 622,150,319.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | Table 25-10-0020-01, Canada, total all classes of producer, total all types of generation, reference year 2024, as published. The same figure appears in table… |
| Generation from hydraulic turbines, 2024 | 343,543,134.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's hydraulic-turbine member for 2024, as published: 55.2 per cent of the survey's total. Water remains the largest single source of Canadian… |
| Generation from wind power turbines, 2015 -- the first year of the widened survey frame | 26,696,727.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's wind-power member for 2015, as published. 2015 is used as the comparison base because it is the first reference year after the issuer widened… |
| Generation from wind power turbines, 2024 | 47,270,666.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's wind-power member for 2024, as published: 7.6 per cent of the survey's total, and more than any other source in the cube's hydro, tidal, wind,… |
| Generation from solar, 2024 -- the first year the total includes modelled small installations | 6,976,141.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's solar member for 2024, as published: 1.1 per cent of the survey's total. The issuer's own footnote states that starting in 2024 this total… |
| Generation from nuclear steam turbines, 2024 | 80,745,292.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's nuclear member for 2024, as published: 13.0 per cent of the survey's total. |
| Total thermal generation, 2024 -- nuclear included, in the cube's own structure | 224,048,458.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's total-thermal member for 2024, as published: 36.0 per cent of the survey's total. Thermal here means generation from heat -- conventional… |
| Generation by industry, outside the utilities, 2024 | 60,145,162.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's industries class for 2024, as published: establishments outside the electric power industry generating for themselves, 9.7 per cent of the… |
| Coal-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2006 -- the first year of the capacity record | 14,701,000.0 kW | institutional estimate | unaudited | Table 25-10-0023-01, Canada, all classes, total conventional thermal, principal fuel coal, reference year 2006, in kilowatts as the cube publishes it. In 2006… |
| Coal-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2024 | 3,215,500.0 kW | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's coal member for 2024, as published: 8.8 per cent of the conventional thermal fleet's total capacity, from 41.4 per cent in 2006. A capacity… |
| Natural-gas-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2006 | 11,384,406.0 kW | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's natural-gas member for 2006, in kilowatts as published. |
| Natural-gas-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2024 | 24,108,010.0 kW | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's natural-gas member for 2024, as published: 65.9 per cent of the conventional thermal fleet's total capacity. Natural-gas capacity first… |
| Electricity sold to residential customers, 2005 | 150,986,378.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | Table 25-10-0021-01, Canada, residential sales of electricity, quantity, reference year 2005, as published. |
| Electricity sold to residential customers, 2024 | 179,559,419.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's residential component for 2024, as published: larger than mining and manufacturing in every published year since 2011, and the largest of the… |
| Electricity sold to mining and manufacturing, 2005 | 188,478,107.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's mining-and-manufacturing component for 2005, as published: in 2005 it was the largest customer class, a quarter larger than residential sales. |
| Electricity sold to mining and manufacturing, 2024 | 152,921,656.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same cube's mining-and-manufacturing component for 2024, as published: 18.9 per cent below its own 2005 level, in a total market that grew. |
| Electricity generated in calendar 2024, on the same issuer's monthly survey | 609,488,088.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The sum of the twelve monthly observations of table 25-10-0016-01's total-generation component at the Canada coordinate, January through December 2024, from… |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| Wind generation: 2015 against 2024, inside one survey frame | +20,573,939.0 MWh | Numeric difference: reference year 2024 wind generation minus reference year 2015, in megawatt hours, from the same cube member on the survey frame in force since 2015. The percentage is the difference over the 2015… |
| Coal-fired capacity: 2006 against 2024 | -11,485,500.0 kW | Numeric difference: 2024 coal-fired conventional thermal capacity minus 2006, in kilowatts, from the issuer's own capacity cube. The percentage is the difference over the 2006 level. |
| Natural-gas-fired capacity: 2006 against 2024 | +12,723,604.0 kW | Numeric difference: 2024 natural-gas-fired conventional thermal capacity minus 2006, in kilowatts, on the same construction as the coal comparison. The percentage is the difference over the 2006 level. |
| Residential against mining and manufacturing, 2005 | -37,491,729.0 MWh | Numeric difference: residential sales minus mining-and-manufacturing sales in reference year 2005, in megawatt hours, both from the same cube. A negative difference means mining and manufacturing bought more. The… |
| Residential against mining and manufacturing, 2024 | +26,637,763.0 MWh | Numeric difference: residential sales minus mining-and-manufacturing sales in reference year 2024, on the same construction as the 2005 comparison. A positive difference means households bought more. The percentage is… |
| One year of generation, measured by the same issuer's annual and monthly surveys | -12,662,231.0 MWh | Numeric difference: the monthly survey's calendar-2024 sum minus the annual survey's reference-year-2024 total, in megawatt hours. The percentage is the difference over the annual survey's figure. One issuer, two… |
The evidence behind this chapter: Who generates Canada's electricity, from what, and who buys it: two decades of the annual survey record →
Chapter 6§
The provincial delivery record
The same delivery question, asked of the provincial systems the projection dataset itself records. Each of the four largest systems -- by the dataset's own last recorded year of generation -- is read against its own record and its own scenario bracket: the province's lowest and highest modelled mid-horizon levels, with its fastest recorded twelve-year stretch as the delivered comparator, because a long provincial average can be flat or declining where a stretch of genuine building still exists. Statistics Canada's separate measured record appears beside the projection dataset for the same four systems, on its own basis, never merged with it. The remaining six provinces are pinned in the Resolution's evidence tables under the same discipline. No province is scored, ranked, or read against another; and the demand side of any provincial adequacy question stays outside public data, as the closing section records.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (Quebec: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 195,507.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Quebec, Year=2023, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2035, Lower scenario (Quebec: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 214,279.2 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Quebec, Year=2035, Scenario='Lower Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The lowest of the four scenario… |
| 2035, Higher scenario (Quebec: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 237,212.4 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Quebec, Year=2035, Scenario='Higher Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The highest of the four scenario… |
| 2010 (Quebec: recorded history) | 180,609.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Quebec, Year=2010, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2022 (Quebec: recorded history) | 215,544.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Quebec, Year=2022, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2023 (Ontario: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 158,135.3 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Ontario, Year=2023, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2035, Lower scenario (Ontario: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 156,081.3 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Ontario, Year=2035, Scenario='Lower Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The lowest of the four scenario… |
| 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Ontario: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 201,723.9 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Ontario, Year=2035, Scenario='Canada Net-zero', rounded to one decimal. The highest of the four… |
| 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) | 135,412.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Ontario, Year=2010, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) | 157,953.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Ontario, Year=2022, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 84,133.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Alberta, Year=2023, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2035, Lower scenario (Alberta: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 96,288.6 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Alberta, Year=2035, Scenario='Lower Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The lowest of the four scenario… |
| 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Alberta: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 116,135.3 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Alberta, Year=2035, Scenario='Canada Net-zero', rounded to one decimal. The highest of the four… |
| 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) | 72,813.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=Alberta, Year=2011, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks: provincial… |
| 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 56,165.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=British Columbia, Year=2023, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks:… |
| 2035, Lower scenario (British Columbia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 97,905.2 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=British Columbia, Year=2035, Scenario='Lower Scenario', rounded to one decimal. The lowest of the four… |
| 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (British Columbia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 114,114.3 GWh | scenario | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=British Columbia, Year=2035, Scenario='Canada Net-zero', rounded to one decimal. The highest of the… |
| 2010 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 60,281.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=British Columbia, Year=2010, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks:… |
| 2022 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 70,681.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum over all of the file's primary-fuel rows for Region=British Columbia, Year=2022, rounded to one decimal. Identical across all four scenario blocks:… |
| 2023 (Quebec: total installed capacity) | 46,307.4 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's Quebec coordinate, Year=2023, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on 2026-07-24. |
| 2024 (Quebec: total installed capacity) | 46,274.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's Quebec coordinate, Year=2024, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on 2026-07-24. |
| Twelve months ending April 2025 (Quebec: total electricity generation) | 194,703.8 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2024 through April 2025, at this publication's Quebec coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand to gigawatt… |
| Twelve months ending April 2026 (Quebec: total electricity generation) | 188,463.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2025 through April 2026, at this publication's Quebec coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand to gigawatt… |
| 2023 (Ontario: total installed capacity) | 40,248.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's Ontario coordinate, Year=2023, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on 2026-07-24. |
| 2024 (Ontario: total installed capacity) | 42,026.4 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's Ontario coordinate, Year=2024, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on 2026-07-24. |
| Twelve months ending April 2025 (Ontario: total electricity generation) | 167,612.8 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2024 through April 2025, at this publication's Ontario coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand to… |
| Twelve months ending April 2026 (Ontario: total electricity generation) | 171,188.2 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2025 through April 2026, at this publication's Ontario coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand to… |
| 2023 (Alberta: total installed capacity) | 16,936.2 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's Alberta coordinate, Year=2023, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on 2026-07-24. |
| 2024 (Alberta: total installed capacity) | 20,180.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's Alberta coordinate, Year=2024, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on 2026-07-24. |
| Twelve months ending April 2025 (Alberta: total electricity generation) | 83,318.8 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2024 through April 2025, at this publication's Alberta coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand to… |
| Twelve months ending April 2026 (Alberta: total electricity generation) | 86,071.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2025 through April 2026, at this publication's Alberta coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand to… |
| 2023 (British Columbia: total installed capacity) | 18,680.8 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's British Columbia coordinate, Year=2023, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on… |
| 2024 (British Columbia: total installed capacity) | 18,780.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | Kilowatts as published at this publication's British Columbia coordinate, Year=2024, divided by one thousand to megawatts, as published at capture on… |
| Twelve months ending April 2025 (British Columbia: total electricity generation) | 62,122.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2024 through April 2025, at this publication's British Columbia coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand… |
| Twelve months ending April 2026 (British Columbia: total electricity generation) | 67,322.3 GWh | institutional estimate | — | Sum of the published monthly values, May 2025 through April 2026, at this publication's British Columbia coordinate (megawatt hours), divided by one thousand… |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| Generation, Quebec: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | +34,934.2 GWh | Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Quebec; both windows are independently… |
| Generation, Ontario: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | +22,540.8 GWh | Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Ontario; both windows are independently… |
| Generation, Alberta: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | +11,320.3 GWh | Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Alberta; both windows are independently… |
| Generation, British Columbia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | +10,400.2 GWh | Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for British Columbia; both windows are… |
| Installed capacity, Quebec: 2023 to 2024 | -32.5 MW | Numeric difference: 2024 minus 2023, in megawatts, on the survey basis only -- never compared with the projection dataset's levels. |
| Installed capacity, Ontario: 2023 to 2024 | +1,778.1 MW | Numeric difference: 2024 minus 2023, in megawatts, on the survey basis only -- never compared with the projection dataset's levels. |
| Installed capacity, Alberta: 2023 to 2024 | +3,244.3 MW | Numeric difference: 2024 minus 2023, in megawatts, on the survey basis only -- never compared with the projection dataset's levels. |
| Installed capacity, British Columbia: 2023 to 2024 | +99.3 MW | Numeric difference: 2024 minus 2023, in megawatts, on the survey basis only -- never compared with the projection dataset's levels. |
| Generation, Quebec: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window | -6,240.1 GWh | Numeric difference: the window ending April 2026 minus the window ending April 2025, in gigawatt hours, on the survey basis only -- the same paired windows the national record states. |
| Generation, Ontario: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window | +3,575.4 GWh | Numeric difference: the window ending April 2026 minus the window ending April 2025, in gigawatt hours, on the survey basis only -- the same paired windows the national record states. |
| Generation, Alberta: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window | +2,752.6 GWh | Numeric difference: the window ending April 2026 minus the window ending April 2025, in gigawatt hours, on the survey basis only -- the same paired windows the national record states. |
| Generation, British Columbia: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window | +5,199.4 GWh | Numeric difference: the window ending April 2026 minus the window ending April 2025, in gigawatt hours, on the survey basis only -- the same paired windows the national record states. |
The evidence behind this chapter: The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation… → · Statistics Canada's measured electricity record: annual installed capacity through 2024 and monthly generation through… →
Chapter 7§
What crosses the border
The cross-border side of the electricity system is unusually well recorded, because every export needs a permit or a licence from the Canada Energy Regulator and every international line sits on the same regulator's register. What leaves, what arrives, what the net position has been over the published period, and how many connections carry it -- read beside Statistics Canada's own measurement of the same flow, on its own basis, with the distance between the two issuers stated rather than resolved.
| Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity exported from Canada, twelve months to April 2026 | 32,529,079.4 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The sum of the twelve monthly export Totals, May 2025 through April 2026, from the Canada Energy Regulator's monthly file. Addition over the issuer's own Total… |
| Electricity imported into Canada, twelve months to April 2026 | 26,239,676.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The sum of the twelve monthly import Totals over the same window, by the same addition. |
| Electricity exported from Canada, calendar 2025 | 32,123,557.1 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The Canada Energy Regulator's annual imports-and-exports file, Activity Exports, Source Total, Destination Total, Year 2025, Energy (MW.h) column, used as the… |
| Electricity imported into Canada, calendar 2025 -- the highest in the thirty-six-year record | 25,229,332.9 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same file, Activity Imports, Source Total, Destination Total, Year 2025, Energy (MW.h) column, as published. Of the thirty-six complete calendar years the… |
| Electricity exported from Canada, calendar 2016 -- the year of the record's widest net position | 73,102,689.3 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same file, Activity Exports, Source Total, Destination Total, Year 2016, as published. 2016 is the calendar year in which exports less imports is largest… |
| Electricity imported into Canada, calendar 2016 | 9,083,219.8 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same file, Activity Imports, Source Total, Destination Total, Year 2016, as published. |
| What Canada's electricity exports were worth, calendar 2025 | 3,067,209,943.4 CAD | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same file's Total Value (CAN$) column at the export Total row for 2025, as published. Carried in whole Canadian dollars, unscaled, because that is the unit… |
| What Canada's electricity imports cost, calendar 2025 | 1,667,087,814.3 CAD | institutional estimate | unaudited | The same file's Total Value (CAN$) column at the import Total row for 2025, as published. |
| Deliveries to the United States as Statistics Canada measures them, twelve months to April 2026 | 32,490,820.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The sum of the twelve monthly observations of table 25-10-0016-01's 'Deliveries to the United States' component at the Canada coordinate, May 2025 through… |
| Purchased receipts from the United States as Statistics Canada measures them, twelve months to April 2026 | 26,263,639.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The sum of the twelve monthly observations of the same cube's 'Purchased receipts from the United States' component at the Canada coordinate over the same… |
| Total Canadian electricity generation, twelve months to April 2026 | 625,010,669.0 MWh | institutional estimate | unaudited | The sum of the twelve monthly observations of the same cube's 'Total generation' component at the Canada coordinate over the same window, in megawatt hours.… |
| International power lines recorded as Operating, at capture on 26 July 2026 | 86.0 international power lines | institutional estimate | unaudited | The count of rows whose Line Status is exactly 'Operating' in the Canada Energy Regulator's International Power Lines register, from 125 rows in total; the… |
| Comparison | Movement | Convention |
|---|---|---|
| The net position over the twelve months to April 2026, on the regulator's record | +6,289,403.4 MWh | Numeric difference: electricity exported minus electricity imported over the twelve months to April 2026, in megawatt hours, both from the same file, the same compilation and the same window. A positive difference means… |
| The net position in calendar 2025 | +6,894,224.3 MWh | Numeric difference: electricity exported minus electricity imported in calendar 2025, in megawatt hours, from the issuer's own annual Total rows. Canada is a net exporter in every one of the thirty-six complete calendar… |
| The net position in calendar 2016, the widest in the record | +64,019,469.5 MWh | Numeric difference: electricity exported minus electricity imported in calendar 2016, in megawatt hours, on the same basis as every other year in the file. Across the thirty-six complete calendar years, this is the… |
| Exports: 2016 against 2025 | -40,979,132.2 MWh | Numeric difference: calendar 2025 exports minus calendar 2016 exports, in megawatt hours, from the issuer's own annual Total rows on one unchanged basis. The percentage is the difference over the 2016 level. |
| Imports: 2016 against 2025 | +16,146,113.0 MWh | Numeric difference: calendar 2025 imports minus calendar 2016 imports, in megawatt hours, on the same construction as the export comparison. The percentage is the difference over the 2016 level. |
| What the trade was worth in calendar 2025 | +1,400,122,129.1 CAD | Numeric difference: the value of electricity exported minus the value of electricity imported in calendar 2025, in Canadian dollars, from the issuer's own Total Value column at its own Total rows. Canada's electricity… |
| The same twelve months of exports, measured by two federal issuers | +38,259.4 MWh | Numeric difference: the Canada Energy Regulator's export total for the twelve months to April 2026 minus Statistics Canada's 'Deliveries to the United States' total over the same twelve months, in megawatt hours. The… |
| The same twelve months of imports, measured by two federal issuers | -23,963.0 MWh | Numeric difference: the Canada Energy Regulator's import total for the twelve months to April 2026 minus Statistics Canada's 'Purchased receipts from the United States' total over the same twelve months, in megawatt… |
The evidence behind this chapter: What crosses the border: Canada's electricity exports, imports and international power lines, on both issuers' records →
Chapter 8§
What the grid already carries
The record's own admitted structural evidence on electricity: the sector's emissions have been falling for years -- the reason electricity is the instrument every decarbonization pathway leans on, and the standing context for why the scenarios ask so much of it. Composed here as structure, never as news.
OBSERVED
GHG emissions, electric power generation, transmission and distribution, annual: 14 consecutive years of negative change
GHG emissions, electric power generation, transmission and distribution, annual has been negative for 14 consecutive years, beginning in 2010. The latest reading is 59 in 2023. This is measured on the physical flow account basis, which is never the basis Canada's emissions targets are scored against. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.
Technical details
Method: Count consecutive years with a negative change, most recent backward; reported only from 4 consecutive years onward.
Chapter 9§
What cannot be known from public data
The demand side of the same story has no public national series -- stated here as a boundary of the record, not worked around.
Evidence gap
How much new electricity demand is formally waiting to connect to Canadian grids -- and how much of the projected data-centre and industrial load will actually materialize?
What is missing: No public, machine-readable, openly licensed national series exists for connection-queue or requested-load demand -- the megawatts of proposed data-centre and industrial projects that have formally asked to connect. Provincial system operators publish connection-process material at varying grain, but applicant-level queue detail is confidential under the operators' own processes, published site content does not carry terms extending to third-party analytical reuse, and no federal or Statistics Canada series aggregates requested connection capacity at any grain.
Consequence: The Electricity Delivery Brief reads the supply side of the official projections: the pace at which generation and capacity must grow under each scenario, and the pace the measured record shows. The demand side of the same story -- whether the data-centre and industrial load growth the scenarios' own definitions bracket is actually arriving in connection requests -- cannot be tracked from any public national series. The Brief therefore restates what the scenarios assume about demand and measures delivered supply; it does not and cannot publish an independent measure of queued demand.
What would close it: A system operator, a regulator, or Statistics Canada publishing a continuously updated, openly licensed series of requested connection capacity (national, or provincial and aggregable), by project class.
Scenarios
Scenario
Generation: Current Measures pace
How fast must national generation grow to reach the Current Measures scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon generation level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +178,654.9 GWh |
| Required average pace | 14,887.9 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +26,789.5 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,488.3 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 10.00× |
| Projected change over the window | +28.7% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Current Measures scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Generation: Canada Net-zero pace
How fast must national generation grow to reach the Canada Net-zero scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon generation level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +250,130.3 GWh |
| Required average pace | 20,844.2 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +26,789.5 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,488.3 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 14.01× |
| Projected change over the window | +40.2% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Generation: Higher scenario pace
How fast must national generation grow to reach the Higher scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon generation level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +238,842.8 GWh |
| Required average pace | 19,903.6 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +26,789.5 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,488.3 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 13.37× |
| Projected change over the window | +38.4% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Higher scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Generation: Lower scenario pace
How fast must national generation grow to reach the Lower scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon generation level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +134,606.3 GWh |
| Required average pace | 11,217.2 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +26,789.5 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,488.3 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 7.54× |
| Projected change over the window | +21.7% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Capacity: Current Measures pace
How fast must installed capacity grow to reach the Current Measures scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon capacity level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +66,447.3 MW |
| Required average pace | 5,537.3 MW per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +37,394.5 MW |
| Recorded average pace | 2,077.5 MW per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 2.67× |
| Projected change over the window | +41.7% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Current Measures scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Capacity: Canada Net-zero pace
How fast must installed capacity grow to reach the Canada Net-zero scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon capacity level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +93,070.2 MW |
| Required average pace | 7,755.8 MW per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +37,394.5 MW |
| Recorded average pace | 2,077.5 MW per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 3.73× |
| Projected change over the window | +58.4% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Capacity: Higher scenario pace
How fast must installed capacity grow to reach the Higher scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon capacity level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +85,391.8 MW |
| Required average pace | 7,116.0 MW per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +37,394.5 MW |
| Recorded average pace | 2,077.5 MW per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 3.43× |
| Projected change over the window | +53.6% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Higher scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Capacity: Lower scenario pace
How fast must installed capacity grow to reach the Lower scenario's mid-horizon level, against the recorded pace?
The scenario's mid-horizon capacity level minus the dataset's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the recorded change across the dataset's own eighteen-year history divided by those eighteen years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +58,058.7 MW |
| Required average pace | 4,838.2 MW per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +37,394.5 MW |
| Recorded average pace | 2,077.5 MW per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 2.33× |
| Projected change over the window | +36.4% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
Scenario
Quebec generation: Lower scenario pace
How fast must Quebec's generation grow to reach the Lower scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +18,771.5 GWh |
| Required average pace | 1,564.3 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +34,934.2 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 2,911.2 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 0.54× |
| Projected change over the window | +9.6% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Quebec's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Quebec's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Scenario
Quebec generation: Higher scenario pace
How fast must Quebec's generation grow to reach the Higher scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +41,704.7 GWh |
| Required average pace | 3,475.4 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +34,934.2 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 2,911.2 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 1.19× |
| Projected change over the window | +21.3% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Quebec's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Higher scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Quebec's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Scenario
Ontario generation: Lower scenario pace
How fast must Ontario's generation grow to reach the Lower scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | -2,054.0 GWh |
| Required average pace | -171.2 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +22,540.8 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,878.4 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | -0.09× |
| Projected change over the window | -1.3% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Ontario's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Ontario's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- In this scenario the modelled mid-horizon level for Ontario sits below the last recorded level: the required change is a decline and the ratio is negative. It is pinned as the bottom of the bracket, not as a delivery requirement.
Scenario
Ontario generation: Canada Net-zero scenario pace
How fast must Ontario's generation grow to reach the Canada Net-zero scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +43,588.6 GWh |
| Required average pace | 3,632.4 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +22,540.8 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 1,878.4 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 1.93× |
| Projected change over the window | +27.6% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Ontario's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Ontario's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Scenario
Alberta generation: Lower scenario pace
How fast must Alberta's generation grow to reach the Lower scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +12,154.7 GWh |
| Required average pace | 1,012.9 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +11,320.3 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 943.4 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 1.07× |
| Projected change over the window | +14.4% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Alberta's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2011 to 2023), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Alberta's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Scenario
Alberta generation: Canada Net-zero scenario pace
How fast must Alberta's generation grow to reach the Canada Net-zero scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +32,001.4 GWh |
| Required average pace | 2,666.8 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +11,320.3 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 943.4 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 2.83× |
| Projected change over the window | +38.0% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Alberta's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2011 to 2023), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Alberta's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Scenario
British Columbia generation: Lower scenario pace
How fast must British Columbia's generation grow to reach the Lower scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +41,739.3 GWh |
| Required average pace | 3,478.3 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +10,400.2 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 866.7 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 4.01× |
| Projected change over the window | +74.3% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read British Columbia's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is British Columbia's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Scenario
British Columbia generation: Canada Net-zero scenario pace
How fast must British Columbia's generation grow to reach the Canada Net-zero scenario's mid-horizon level for the province, against the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record?
The scenario's mid-horizon provincial generation level minus the province's last recorded level, divided by the twelve years between them, held against the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded change divided by those twelve years; the pace ratio is the first divided by the second. The delivered side is the fastest twelve-year stretch -- not a full-history average -- because provincial generation history is scenario-block-invariant only from 2010, and a near-flat or declining long average would make the ratio uninformative; this is the same fastest-stretch comparator the national correction of 2026-07-17 established. Computed once, before publication, from the pinned Resolution values; every input is in the evidence tables on this page.
| Projected total change over the window | +57,948.4 GWh |
| Required average pace | 4,829.0 GWh per year |
| Recorded total change over the delivered window | +10,400.2 GWh |
| Recorded average pace | 866.7 GWh per year |
| Required pace as a multiple of the recorded pace | 5.57× |
| Projected change over the window | +103.2% |
Assumptions:
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read British Columbia's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is British Columbia's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
Directly observed
No section of this Brief currently carries an audited outcome — zero is shown, not hidden.
Estimated, projected, or otherwise not yet an audited outcome
- 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios)
- 2035, Current Measures scenario
- 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario
- 2035, Higher scenario
- 2035, Lower scenario
- 2050, Current Measures scenario
- 2050, Canada Net-zero scenario
- 2025, Current Measures scenario (modelled year)
- Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035
- Generation, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035
- Generation, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035
- Generation, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035
- Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2025 (the scenario's own near-term path)
- 2005 (recorded history)
- 2010 (recorded history)
- 2022 (recorded history)
- 2005 (recorded history)
- 2011 (recorded history)
- 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios)
- Capacity, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035
- Capacity, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035
- Capacity, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035
- Capacity, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035
- Generation, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2010 to 2022)
- Capacity, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2011 to 2023)
- 2023 (installed capacity)
- 2024 (installed capacity; latest published reference year)
- Calendar year 2023 (generation)
- Calendar year 2025 (generation)
- Twelve months ending April 2026 (generation)
- Twelve months ending April 2025 (generation)
- Installed capacity, 2023 to 2024
- Installed capacity, 2014 to 2024 (ten years)
- Generation, calendar 2023 to calendar 2024
- Generation, calendar 2023 to calendar 2025
- Generation, trailing twelve months to April 2026 vs the year-earlier window
- Electricity generated in Canada, reference year 2024, on the annual survey
- Generation from hydraulic turbines, 2024
- Generation from wind power turbines, 2015 -- the first year of the widened survey frame
- Generation from wind power turbines, 2024
- Generation from solar, 2024 -- the first year the total includes modelled small installations
- Generation from nuclear steam turbines, 2024
- Total thermal generation, 2024 -- nuclear included, in the cube's own structure
- Generation by industry, outside the utilities, 2024
- Coal-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2006 -- the first year of the capacity record
- Coal-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2024
- Natural-gas-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2006
- Natural-gas-fired conventional thermal capacity, 2024
- Electricity sold to residential customers, 2005
- Electricity sold to residential customers, 2024
- Electricity sold to mining and manufacturing, 2005
- Electricity sold to mining and manufacturing, 2024
- Electricity generated in calendar 2024, on the same issuer's monthly survey
- Wind generation: 2015 against 2024, inside one survey frame
- Coal-fired capacity: 2006 against 2024
- Natural-gas-fired capacity: 2006 against 2024
- Residential against mining and manufacturing, 2005
- Residential against mining and manufacturing, 2024
- One year of generation, measured by the same issuer's annual and monthly surveys
- 2023 (Quebec: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios)
- 2035, Lower scenario (Quebec: the lowest of the four scenario levels)
- 2035, Higher scenario (Quebec: the highest of the four scenario levels)
- 2010 (Quebec: recorded history)
- 2022 (Quebec: recorded history)
- 2023 (Ontario: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios)
- 2035, Lower scenario (Ontario: the lowest of the four scenario levels)
- 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Ontario: the highest of the four scenario levels)
- 2010 (Ontario: recorded history)
- 2022 (Ontario: recorded history)
- 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios)
- 2035, Lower scenario (Alberta: the lowest of the four scenario levels)
- 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Alberta: the highest of the four scenario levels)
- 2011 (Alberta: recorded history)
- 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios)
- 2035, Lower scenario (British Columbia: the lowest of the four scenario levels)
- 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (British Columbia: the highest of the four scenario levels)
- 2010 (British Columbia: recorded history)
- 2022 (British Columbia: recorded history)
- 2023 (Quebec: total installed capacity)
- 2024 (Quebec: total installed capacity)
- Twelve months ending April 2025 (Quebec: total electricity generation)
- Twelve months ending April 2026 (Quebec: total electricity generation)
- 2023 (Ontario: total installed capacity)
- 2024 (Ontario: total installed capacity)
- Twelve months ending April 2025 (Ontario: total electricity generation)
- Twelve months ending April 2026 (Ontario: total electricity generation)
- 2023 (Alberta: total installed capacity)
- 2024 (Alberta: total installed capacity)
- Twelve months ending April 2025 (Alberta: total electricity generation)
- Twelve months ending April 2026 (Alberta: total electricity generation)
- 2023 (British Columbia: total installed capacity)
- 2024 (British Columbia: total installed capacity)
- Twelve months ending April 2025 (British Columbia: total electricity generation)
- Twelve months ending April 2026 (British Columbia: total electricity generation)
- Generation, Quebec: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022)
- Generation, Ontario: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022)
- Generation, Alberta: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023)
- Generation, British Columbia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022)
- Installed capacity, Quebec: 2023 to 2024
- Installed capacity, Ontario: 2023 to 2024
- Installed capacity, Alberta: 2023 to 2024
- Installed capacity, British Columbia: 2023 to 2024
- Generation, Quebec: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window
- Generation, Ontario: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window
- Generation, Alberta: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window
- Generation, British Columbia: trailing twelve months ending April 2026 against the year-earlier window
- Electricity exported from Canada, twelve months to April 2026
- Electricity imported into Canada, twelve months to April 2026
- Electricity exported from Canada, calendar 2025
- Electricity imported into Canada, calendar 2025 -- the highest in the thirty-six-year record
- Electricity exported from Canada, calendar 2016 -- the year of the record's widest net position
- Electricity imported into Canada, calendar 2016
- What Canada's electricity exports were worth, calendar 2025
- What Canada's electricity imports cost, calendar 2025
- Deliveries to the United States as Statistics Canada measures them, twelve months to April 2026
- Purchased receipts from the United States as Statistics Canada measures them, twelve months to April 2026
- Total Canadian electricity generation, twelve months to April 2026
- International power lines recorded as Operating, at capture on 26 July 2026
- The net position over the twelve months to April 2026, on the regulator's record
- The net position in calendar 2025
- The net position in calendar 2016, the widest in the record
- Exports: 2016 against 2025
- Imports: 2016 against 2025
- What the trade was worth in calendar 2025
- The same twelve months of exports, measured by two federal issuers
- The same twelve months of imports, measured by two federal issuers
Unresolved
- No public, machine-readable, openly licensed national series exists for connection-queue or requested-load demand -- the megawatts of proposed data-centre and industrial projects that have formally asked to connect. Provincial system operators publish connection-process material at varying grain, but applicant-level queue detail is confidential under the operators' own processes, published site content does not carry terms extending to third-party analytical reuse, and no federal or Statistics Canada series aggregates requested connection capacity at any grain.
Key evidence
| Issuer | Publication | Published | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Current Measures scenario block ( | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Current Measures | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Canada Net-zero scenario block (R | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Higher scenario block (Region=Can | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Lower scenario block (Region=Cana | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generating capacity by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Current Measures scenari | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Current Measures | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generating capacity by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Canada Net-zero scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generating capacity by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Higher scenario block (R | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generating capacity by primary fuel, 2005-2050, Lower scenario block (Re | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- data dictionary (units and the issuer's own scenario definitions) | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Newfoundland and Labrador rows, recor | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Newfoundland and Labrador rows, Canad | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Newfoundland and Labrador rows, Highe | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Newfoundland and Labrador rows, recorde | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Newfoundland and Labrador rows, Canada | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Newfoundland and Labrador rows, Higher | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Prince Edward Island rows, recorded h | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Prince Edward Island rows, Lower Scen | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Prince Edward Island rows, Higher Sce | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Prince Edward Island rows, recorded his | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Prince Edward Island rows, Lower Scenar | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Prince Edward Island rows, Higher Scena | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Nova Scotia rows, recorded history (g | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Nova Scotia rows, Lower Scenario scen | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Nova Scotia rows, Canada Net-zero sce | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Nova Scotia rows, recorded history (meg | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Nova Scotia rows, Lower Scenario scenar | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Nova Scotia rows, Canada Net-zero scena | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=New Brunswick rows, recorded history | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=New Brunswick rows, Lower Scenario sc | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=New Brunswick rows, Higher Scenario s | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=New Brunswick rows, recorded history (m | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=New Brunswick rows, Current Measures sc | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Current Measures | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=New Brunswick rows, Canada Net-zero sce | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Quebec rows, recorded history (gigawa | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Quebec rows, Lower Scenario scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Quebec rows, Higher Scenario scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Quebec rows, recorded history (megawatt | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Quebec rows, Lower Scenario scenario bl | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Quebec rows, Higher Scenario scenario b | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Ontario rows, recorded history (gigaw | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Ontario rows, Lower Scenario scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Ontario rows, Canada Net-zero scenari | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Ontario rows, recorded history (megawat | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Ontario rows, Current Measures scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Current Measures | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Ontario rows, Canada Net-zero scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Manitoba rows, recorded history (giga | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Manitoba rows, Lower Scenario scenari | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Manitoba rows, Canada Net-zero scenar | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Manitoba rows, recorded history (megawa | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Manitoba rows, Lower Scenario scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Manitoba rows, Canada Net-zero scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Saskatchewan rows, recorded history ( | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Saskatchewan rows, Lower Scenario sce | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Saskatchewan rows, Canada Net-zero sc | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Saskatchewan rows, recorded history (me | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Saskatchewan rows, Lower Scenario scena | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Saskatchewan rows, Canada Net-zero scen | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Alberta rows, recorded history (gigaw | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Alberta rows, Lower Scenario scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=Alberta rows, Canada Net-zero scenari | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Alberta rows, recorded history (megawat | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Alberta rows, Lower Scenario scenario b | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=Alberta rows, Canada Net-zero scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=British Columbia rows, recorded histo | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=British Columbia rows, Lower Scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity generation by primary fuel, Region=British Columbia rows, Canada Net-zer | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=British Columbia rows, recorded history | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=British Columbia rows, Lower Scenario s | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Canada's Energy Future 2026 -- electricity capacity by primary fuel, Region=British Columbia rows, Higher Scenario | 2026-03-16 | EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Electricity – Imports and Exports, annual (electricity-exports-and-imports-annual.csv) -- exports, all Canadian sources | 2026-07-02 | Calendar years 1990 through 2026, of which 1990 through 2025 | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Electricity – Imports and Exports, annual (electricity-exports-and-imports-annual.csv) -- imports, all United States sou | 2026-07-02 | Calendar years 1990 through 2026, of which 1990 through 2025 | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Electricity – Imports and Exports, annual -- the Total Value column for exports, calendar 2025 | 2026-07-02 | Calendar 2025, complete; captured 2026-07-26 | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Electricity – Imports and Exports, annual -- the Total Value column for imports, calendar 2025 | 2026-07-02 | Calendar 2025, complete; captured 2026-07-26 | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Electricity – Imports and Exports, monthly (electricity-exports-and-imports-monthly.csv) -- exports, the issuer's o | 2026-07-02 | 436 monthly periods, January 1990 through April 2026; captur | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Electricity – Imports and Exports, monthly -- imports, the issuer's own Total rows, twelve months to April 2026 | 2026-07-02 | 436 monthly periods, January 1990 through April 2026; captur | Source → |
| Canada Energy Regulator | International Power Lines Information -- the register of every international power line the Canada Energy Regulator regu | 2026-04-09 | The register as it stood at capture on 2026-07-26; the catal | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0016-01, Electric power generation, monthly receipts, deliveries and availability -- Canada, component " | 2026-07-24 | Monthly, reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04, as publis | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0016-01 -- Canada, component "Purchased receipts from the United States" | 2026-07-24 | Monthly, reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04, as publis | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0016-01 -- Canada, component "Total generation" | 2026-07-24 | Monthly, reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04, as publis | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01, Electric power, annual generation by class of producer -- Canada, total all classes, total all type | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01 -- Canada, total all classes, type "Hydraulic turbine" | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01 -- Canada, total all classes, type "Wind power turbine" | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01 -- Canada, total all classes, type "Solar" | 2025-10-22 | Annual; the solar member's first published observation | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01 -- Canada, total all classes, type "Nuclear steam turbine" | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01 -- Canada, total all classes, type "Total thermal generation" | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0020-01 -- Canada, class "Electricity producer, industries", total all types | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0023-01, Conventional thermal, annual generating capacity by principal fuel -- Canada, all classes, total co | 2025-10-27 | Annual, reference years 2006 through 2024 with no published | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0023-01 -- Canada, all classes, total conventional thermal, principal fuel "Natural gas" | 2025-10-27 | Annual, reference years 2006 through 2024 with no published | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0021-01, Electric power, annual supply and disposition -- Canada, component "Residential sales of elect | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0021-01 -- Canada, component "Mining and manufacturing sales of electricity", quantity | 2025-10-22 | Annual, reference years 2005 through 2024, as published at c | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0016-01, Electric power generation, monthly receipts, deliveries and availability -- Canada, component " | 2026-07-24 | Monthly, reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04, as publis | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0015-01, Electric power generation, monthly generation by type of electricity (Canada, total all classes of | 2026-06-30 | 2026-04 reference month (released 2026-06-30) | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0022-01, Installed plants, annual generating capacity by type of electricity generation (Canada, total all c | 2025-10-27 | 2024 reference year (released 2025-10-27) | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0015-01 -- Quebec, electric power generation, monthly, total all classes of producer, total all types of gen | 2026-06-30 | Reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04 (the cube's la | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0022-01 -- Quebec, installed plants, annual generating capacity, total all classes of producer, total instal | 2025-10-27 | Reference years 2006 through 2024 (the cube's latest), | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0015-01 -- Ontario, electric power generation, monthly, total all classes of producer, total all types of ge | 2026-06-30 | Reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04 (the cube's la | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0022-01 -- Ontario, installed plants, annual generating capacity, total all classes of producer, total insta | 2025-10-27 | Reference years 2006 through 2024 (the cube's latest), | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0015-01 -- Alberta, electric power generation, monthly, total all classes of producer, total all types of ge | 2026-06-30 | Reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04 (the cube's la | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0022-01 -- Alberta, installed plants, annual generating capacity, total all classes of producer, total insta | 2025-10-27 | Reference years 2006 through 2024 (the cube's latest), | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0015-01 -- British Columbia, electric power generation, monthly, total all classes of producer, total all ty | 2026-06-30 | Reference months 2008-01 through 2026-04 (the cube's la | Source → |
| Statistics Canada | Table 25-10-0022-01 -- British Columbia, installed plants, annual generating capacity, total all classes of producer, to | 2025-10-27 | Reference years 2006 through 2024 (the cube's latest), | Source → |
Method and limitations
- Every figure on this Brief resolves to a pinned value inside its two member Resolutions -- each re-derivable from archived source bytes -- or to a Scenario computed once, before publication, from those same pinned values under a named formula. The projection side and the measured side come from different issuers on different bases; their levels are never compared or merged, and every change is computed within one basis only. Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathways, restated with attribution; nothing on this page is a Countability forecast. Where this page compares a scenario's required pace against any comparable twelve-year stretch in the recorded history, that comparison checks every non-overlapping-start twelve-year window the recorded history admits and cites the fastest one for each measure; every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes, and the full comparison is in the cited Resolution's own values and comparisons.
- Every scenario value in this entry is the issuer's modelled pathway under its own stated assumptions -- not a plan, not a commitment, not a forecast by Countability, and not a statement that any level will or will not be reached.
- This entry restates one issuer's dataset against itself: the projections and the recorded history come from the same files, the same regional total, and the same summation, so pace comparisons inside this entry involve no cross-issuer or cross-basis arithmetic.
- The dataset's recorded history and Statistics Canada's survey-based electricity tables measure closely related but not identical quantities: at 2023 the two state national generation about one per cent apart (621,540 GWh here; 615,332.8 GWh on Statistics Canada's own measured electricity record). Levels are therefore never compared across the two entries; each entry's changes are computed only within its own basis.
- 2024 and 2025 are modelled years in this dataset even though those calendar years had passed by publication -- the scenario blocks diverge from 2024 onward, which is the dataset's own marker of where history ends.
- Correction, 2026-07-17: the full-period 2005-2023 average (the projected-pace comparisons and the capacity equivalents' delivered basis) is one comparator among several a reader could choose; it does not by itself establish that no shorter historical interval ever matched or exceeded part of a scenario's required pace. Checked directly: some one-year and five-year windows within 2005-2023 do equal or exceed the lower or middle scenario range (e.g. generation's single largest year-over-year change, 2010 to 2011, exceeds even the Canada Net-zero scenario's required pace). No twelve-year window does -- the fastest-window comparisons on this entry pin the fastest such window for each measure, and every scenario's required pace exceeds it. The duration of the comparison window is therefore load-bearing and is always named alongside any precedent claim drawn from this entry.
- Provincial generation history in this file diverges across scenario blocks for 2005-2009: the Current Measures block's provincial rows differ from the other three blocks (which agree with one another exactly) in nine of ten provinces, by amounts that are material at provincial scale -- for the smallest system the divergent rows differ roughly tenfold. From 2010 every block agrees exactly. Provincial generation history is therefore pinned only from 2010, and no 2005-2009 provincial generation figure is pinned or published. The national generation totals carry the same 2005-2009 divergence: their cross-block spread is about 20 gigawatt hours at 2005 (0.003 per cent, the figure this entry states on its 2005 rows) but reaches about 21,900 gigawatt hours at 2008 (about 3.6 per cent), so the 2005 figure describes 2005 only and does not bound the other years. No national generation value pinned on this entry falls in 2006-2009 -- the pinned history years are 2005, 2010, 2022 and 2023 -- so no published national figure is drawn from a divergent year. Provincial capacity history carries no block divergence and is pinned from 2005.
- Provincial 2035 values are pinned for each province's lowest and highest of the four scenario levels -- the bracket the Brief's provincial rows read. The two intermediate scenario levels for every province lie between the pinned bracket ends and remain readable in the archived file; which scenarios form the bracket differs by province and is named on each pinned value.
- Provincial values are read against the same province's own record and its own scenario bracket only. They are pinned in the geography order Statistics Canada's electricity cubes use for the ten provinces, and no cross-province ranking, share, or composite is computed on this basis.
- The two issuers do not publish the same number, and this entry does not choose between them. Over the twelve months to April 2026 the Canada Energy Regulator's export total is about a tenth of one per cent above Statistics Canada's deliveries figure and its import total about a tenth of one per cent below Statistics Canada's receipts figure. Across the 220 months both records cover, the average monthly gap is 0.8 per cent on exports and 1.6 per cent on imports, in both directions. Both are official records of the same physical flow, collected from different respondents; the distance between them is published here as a property of measuring electricity trade.
- The file's own Price column is not used anywhere in this entry. The data dictionary defines it as the average price in Canadian dollars per megawatt hour, but the published figure cannot be reproduced from the file's own Energy and Total Value columns -- for calendar 2025 exports the file states 90.66 while value divided by volume gives 95.48 -- and the file does not disclose how it is derived. Rather than publish a price we cannot re-derive, or silently substitute our own, this entry pins volumes and values only and records the discrepancy.
- This is the international border, not the provincial ones. The Canada Energy Regulator's mandate covers international power lines and export permits, so its file records nothing about electricity moving between provinces. Statistics Canada's cube has components for interprovincial receipts and deliveries but publishes no observation for either at the Canada aggregate, which is where this entry reads. The domestic intertie is therefore not measured anywhere in this entry, and no figure here should be read as covering it.
- Two components of the Statistics Canada cube have been discontinued and are not used. The firm and non-firm split of deliveries to the United States ends at December 2015, and 'Other receipts from the United States' ends at December 2011. Nothing here extends, imputes, or fills those series, and the import comparison uses the purchased-receipts component alone, which is the whole of what the cube now records as arriving.
- The register counts lines, not capacity. The International Power Lines register carries a capacity column, but it is populated with zero on many rows, so no total transfer capability is computed from it here and none should be inferred from the count of 86 operating lines. The register is also attribute-grain, not geometry: no current national transmission geometry layer is available under an open instrument, and the regulator's interactive map sits under different and narrower terms that this entry does not rely on.
- Every figure here is as published at capture and subject to the issuers' ordinary revision. Neither the Canada Energy Regulator file nor the Statistics Canada cube publishes a vintage archive of itself, so a figure pinned here cannot later be compared against what the same source said today unless these bytes are kept -- which is why they are archived with their hashes.
- Nothing in this entry explains the position it records. Cross-border electricity flows respond to hydrology, demand, relative prices, plant availability, transmission outages and policy on both sides of the border, and this record separates none of them. The narrowing of the net position since 2016 is stated as what the record shows, and attributed to nothing.
- The survey's frame widened in 2015, and the issuer says so. Beginning with reference year 2015 the target population grew from 400 to 1200 establishments as renewable energy companies engaged in solar, wind, hydro and other technologies were added, and the issuer's own footnote advises caution when comparing with data prior to 2015. The wind comparison in this entry is deliberately based at 2015 to sit inside one frame; the capacity and customer-class comparisons cross the boundary and carry this caution with them.
- The 2024 solar figure is the first to include modelled small installations. The issuer's footnote states that starting in 2024, solar generation totals include modelled output from installations below 100 kW, where earlier totals covered only surveyed systems of 100 kW and above. For that reason no solar growth comparison ending in 2024 is pinned anywhere in this entry, and the 2024 solar value must not be set against any earlier year as if the definition had not moved. Solar also has no published value before reference year 2009.
- Total thermal generation includes nuclear. In the cube's structure, total thermal spans conventional steam, nuclear steam, internal combustion and combustion turbines -- generation from heat, not generation from fossil fuel. Anyone reading the 224,048,458 MWh thermal figure as fossil generation would overstate fossil generation by the 80,745,292 MWh that are nuclear.
- The capacity record covers conventional thermal plants only, and 2012 is missing from it. Table 25-10-0023-01 records the capacity of conventional thermal plants by principal fuel; hydro, nuclear, wind and solar capacity are outside its frame, so nothing here states the system's total capacity or any fuel's share of it. The cube publishes no observation for reference year 2012 in any fuel at the Canada aggregate, so any every-year statement about this record means every published year. A fall in a fuel's capacity is a change in the stock the survey measures, not a recorded retirement event.
- The annual survey and the monthly survey do not publish the same total for the same year, and this entry does not choose between them. For calendar 2024 the annual survey's total is 622,150,319 MWh and the monthly survey's twelve months sum to 609,488,088 MWh, 2.0 per cent less. Both are official instruments of one issuer, collected on different frames. The Brief's other chapters read the monthly instrument, so a 2024 figure from this chapter must never be set beside a monthly-instrument figure from another year and read as a movement.
- Sales classes are the survey's own, and they do not cover the whole of generation. Total sales to ultimate customers exclude the electricity producers use themselves, losses and unallocated electricity, so customer-class figures are shares of what was sold, not of what was generated. The mining-and-manufacturing class is the survey's own grouping and is not decomposable here into mining against manufacturing. Across the survey's four customer classes the largest buyer has changed hands: mining and manufacturing was the largest in every year through 2008, residential has been the largest in every published year since 2014, and in between the lead moved year to year -- residential in 2009 and 2011, mining and manufacturing in 2010, other industries in 2012 and 2013. A comparison of residential against mining and manufacturing alone, like the one this entry pins, says nothing about which class was largest in any year, and the two statements are kept distinct wherever either appears.
- Nothing in this entry explains the movements it records. Hydraulic generation in 2024 is below its own mid-decade levels, coal-fired capacity has fallen by more than three-quarters, and industrial electricity purchases are below their 2005 level; hydrology, prices, regulation, closures and demand all bear on these records and this entry separates none of them. No figure here is a forecast, and no capacity figure implies future generation.
- Every figure is as published at capture on 2026-08-02 and subject to the issuer's ordinary revision. These cubes publish no vintage archive of themselves, so the pinned values cannot later be compared against what the same tables said on this date unless these bytes are kept -- which is why they are archived with their hashes.
- Annual generation totals reflect what was demanded and delivered in each year under that year's conditions, not the system's maximum capability -- a flat or falling generation year is a statement about the year, never by itself a statement about capacity.
- Monthly generation values are raw survey totals, not weather- or seasonally adjusted, and remain subject to Statistics Canada's standard revisions; every figure here is 'as published at capture on 2026-07-17.'
- This entry and the Energy Future 2026 projection entry measure closely related but not identical quantities on different bases (a survey total versus a modelling dataset's recorded history); their levels differ by about one per cent at 2023 and are never compared across entries -- changes are computed only within one basis.
- The capacity table's 2012 reference year is published with a not-available status code at the national total coordinate; no 2012 value is pinned and no comparison spans it.
- Provincial values are pinned for the four largest provincial systems by the projection dataset's own last recorded generation year (Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia); the archived provincial captures hold all ten provinces, and the remaining six are readable in the archived bytes under the same coordinates.
- The ten provinces do not sum to the national pins on this table: the residual is the territories plus any unallocated generation or capacity, roughly a third of one per cent of the national totals at 2023-2024. Provincial figures are therefore stated only against the province's own record, never rescaled to a national total they do not reconcile to.
- Provincial trailing-twelve-month windows are the same windows the national record pins (ending April 2026 and April 2025, the cube's latest reference month at capture); no fresher provincial window exists on this table, and any window refresh belongs to the Brief's declared maintenance trigger, not to this chapter.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Current Measures scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Higher scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (gigawatt hours).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Current Measures scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Higher scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- The delivered pace is the dataset's own recorded history, carried in the same file and summed the same way as the scenario values -- both sides of the ratio share one accounting basis and one unit (megawatts).
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast; the ratio states how the modelled pathway compares with the recorded past, never whether it will happen.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Quebec's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Quebec's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Quebec's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Higher scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Quebec's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Ontario's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Ontario's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- In this scenario the modelled mid-horizon level for Ontario sits below the last recorded level: the required change is a decline and the ratio is negative. It is pinned as the bottom of the bracket, not as a delivery requirement.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Ontario's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Ontario's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Alberta's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2011 to 2023), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Alberta's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read Alberta's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2011 to 2023), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is Alberta's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read British Columbia's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Lower scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is British Columbia's lowest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
- Average annual pace treats each window's change as if it were delivered evenly across the window; the scenario's own year-by-year path is not evenly spread, and neither was the recorded history.
- Both sides of the ratio read British Columbia's own rows of the same file, summed the same way, in one unit (gigawatt hours); no other province's figures enter, and the delivered side is the province's own fastest twelve-year recorded stretch (2010 to 2022), pinned beside this table.
- Scenario values are the issuer's modelled pathway under its stated assumptions (Canada Net-zero scenario) -- not a plan, a commitment, or a Countability forecast. This is British Columbia's highest of the four modelled 2035 levels: it states one end of the province's bracket, and the two intermediate scenarios lie between the pinned bracket ends.
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