Federal Fiscal Capacity
This domain tracks federal deficit, debt, and the government's own stated fiscal anchors — measured against public data where a fit-for-purpose indicator exists, and shown as context (never a compliance verdict) where the accounting basis or data vintage doesn't match. Independent projections are held beside the government's own.
On this page
The new fiscal year, through July
The federal government recorded a $5.138 billion deficit from April to July 2026. On the same monthly Statistics Canada series, the balance was $2.650 billion higher than in the same four months of 2025. Four months do not determine the full-year result.
| Measure | 2025–26, current monthly series | 2026–27, current monthly series | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budgetary balance | -7,788 | -5,138 | 2,650 |
| Revenue | 163,443 | 175,469 | 12,026 |
| Expenses | 171,231 | 180,607 | 9,376 |
| Program expenses | 152,634 | 160,628 | 7,994 |
| Public debt charges | 18,597 | 19,979 | 1,382 |
| Reference month | 2026 balance | Matched 2025 balance, current series | 2025 balance held in July reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | -1,046 | -7,709 | -7,711 |
| 2026-05 | -313 | -2,196 | -2,194 |
| 2026-06 | 989 | 3,629 | 3,629 |
| 2026-07 | -4,768 | -1,512 | -1,512 |
These observations use the Public Accounts basis and are unaudited. The comparison uses April–July in each fiscal year; it is neither seasonally adjusted nor annualized. Historical reading records keep their original source editions.
| Concept | Month | Held July 2026 capture | October 2026 capture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budgetary balance | 2025-04 | -7,711 | -7,709 |
| Budgetary balance | 2025-05 | -2,194 | -2,196 |
| Revenue | 2025-04 | 38,782 | 38,784 |
| Revenue | 2025-05 | 37,246 | 37,244 |
The July Fiscal Monitor independently reports the current four-month balance as -5,138 million dollars. Its prior-year cumulative balance is -7,787 million, compared with -7,788 million from adding the published Statistics Canada monthly cells. This 1 million dollar difference is retained; the two source presentations are not silently made to agree.
Sources: Statistics Canada, table 10-10-0133-01 (July observations released September 28, 2026); Department of Finance, July 2026 Fiscal Monitor (published September 25, 2026). Rechecked October 4. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
A new CPP scenario sits beside the older valuation
The Chief Actuary’s 33rd report, published June 8, 2026, supplements the revised 32nd report on the same December 31, 2024 valuation date. It tests the base-CPP contribution-rate reduction proposed in Bill C-30. It is a separate conditional scenario, not a replacement of every projection in the earlier valuation.
| Measure | Rate | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Statutory rate in the report’s scenario | 9.9% | Calendar years 2025 and 2026 |
| Proposed statutory rate in the scenario | 9.5% | Calendar year 2027 onwards |
| Minimum rate estimated by the Chief Actuary | 9.22% | Calendar years 2028–2033 |
| Minimum rate estimated by the Chief Actuary | 9.20% | Calendar year 2034 onwards |
The report finds the proposed rate sufficient to finance the base CPP over the long term under its assumptions. The lower rate reduces projected contributions, investment income and assets; contributory earnings and expenditures retain the earlier report’s assumptions. The revised 32nd report remains visible as its original valuation.
This is the report’s assessment of a proposed amendment. This source qualification does not establish the bill’s legislative status or say the reduction has taken effect. The base CPP is a contribution-financed pension plan; these rates are not federal budget balances or additional-CPP rates.
Source: Office of the Chief Actuary, 33rd CPP Actuarial Report, highlights and sections 2–3.
The debt series stops earlier
| Measure | Reference month | Published amount | Subsequent unavailable months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal debt (accumulated deficit) | 2026-03 | 1,322,004 | 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07 |
| Gross debt (liabilities) | 2026-03 | 2,315,487 | 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07 |
| Net debt | 2026-03 | 1,467,135 | 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07 |
April–July 2026 cells in this debt table have no published numeric value (source status 1). They are not zero and March’s stocks are not carried forward. The three debt concepts describe different accounting quantities; they are not interchangeable or added together. These unaudited observations do not settle the earlier fiscal-year reading.
Source: Statistics Canada, table 10-10-0002-01. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
Current snapshot
−1.69%
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
$522.1B
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
Read this figure carefully
National Accounts basis, seasonally adjusted at annual rates — not the Public Accounts figure
$578.7B
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
Read this figure carefully
National Accounts basis, seasonally adjusted at annual rates
10.1%
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
$191.7B
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
34.2%
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
Read this figure carefully
Countability calculation: Canadian Government Finance Statistics (CGFS) reference year Y means the federal fiscal year ending March 31, Y+1. The denominator is calendar-Y GDP, calculated from four quarterly annual rates. The stock and GDP cover different periods. This is not Statistics Canada’s published debt/GDP ratio, which uses annual provincial and territorial economic accounts GDP, or the Public Accounts federal-debt measure.
Time-series evidence
Federal balance, % of GDP, quarterly
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
1991 Q3 → 2026 Q2 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis) · Statistics Canada — GDP, expenditure-based, quarterly
View the data table for Federal balance, % of GDP, quarterly (140 points)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 1991 Q3 | −5.35% |
| 1991 Q4 | −4.76% |
| 1992 Q1 | −3.95% |
| 1992 Q2 | −4.95% |
| 1992 Q3 | −5.79% |
| 1992 Q4 | −5.36% |
| 1993 Q1 | −5.08% |
| 1993 Q2 | −5.95% |
| 1993 Q3 | −5.31% |
| 1993 Q4 | −5.19% |
| 1994 Q1 | −4.54% |
| 1994 Q2 | −4.78% |
| 1994 Q3 | −4.21% |
| 1994 Q4 | −4.43% |
| 1995 Q1 | −3.72% |
| 1995 Q2 | −4.64% |
| 1995 Q3 | −3.71% |
| 1995 Q4 | −3.36% |
| 1996 Q1 | −3.86% |
| 1996 Q2 | −2.34% |
| 1996 Q3 | −1.77% |
| 1996 Q4 | −0.57% |
| 1997 Q1 | −0.17% |
| 1997 Q2 | +0.81% |
| 1997 Q3 | +0.88% |
| 1997 Q4 | +1.24% |
| 1998 Q1 | +0.33% |
| 1998 Q2 | +1.20% |
| 1998 Q3 | +0.97% |
| 1998 Q4 | +0.68% |
| 1999 Q1 | +0.30% |
| 1999 Q2 | −0.09% |
| 1999 Q3 | +1.52% |
| 1999 Q4 | +1.74% |
| 2000 Q1 | +2.17% |
| 2000 Q2 | +1.07% |
| 2000 Q3 | +2.28% |
| 2000 Q4 | +1.83% |
| 2001 Q1 | +1.87% |
| 2001 Q2 | +1.84% |
| 2001 Q3 | +0.81% |
| 2001 Q4 | +0.06% |
| 2002 Q1 | +0.16% |
| 2002 Q2 | +0.93% |
| 2002 Q3 | +0.84% |
| 2002 Q4 | +1.13% |
| 2003 Q1 | +0.83% |
| 2003 Q2 | −0.98% |
| 2003 Q3 | +0.67% |
| 2003 Q4 | +0.87% |
| 2004 Q1 | +1.02% |
| 2004 Q2 | +0.08% |
| 2004 Q3 | +1.17% |
| 2004 Q4 | +0.85% |
| 2005 Q1 | −0.70% |
| 2005 Q2 | +0.39% |
| 2005 Q3 | −0.29% |
| 2005 Q4 | +0.68% |
| 2006 Q1 | +0.91% |
| 2006 Q2 | +1.22% |
| 2006 Q3 | −0.14% |
| 2006 Q4 | +1.18% |
| 2007 Q1 | +0.89% |
| 2007 Q2 | +1.06% |
| 2007 Q3 | +1.21% |
| 2007 Q4 | +0.57% |
| 2008 Q1 | +0.02% |
| 2008 Q2 | −0.53% |
| 2008 Q3 | +1.08% |
| 2008 Q4 | −0.71% |
| 2009 Q1 | −1.02% |
| 2009 Q2 | −2.31% |
| 2009 Q3 | −2.14% |
| 2009 Q4 | −2.05% |
| 2010 Q1 | −3.30% |
| 2010 Q2 | −2.05% |
| 2010 Q3 | −3.58% |
| 2010 Q4 | −2.27% |
| 2011 Q1 | −1.72% |
| 2011 Q2 | −1.27% |
| 2011 Q3 | −1.73% |
| 2011 Q4 | −1.27% |
| 2012 Q1 | −1.07% |
| 2012 Q2 | −1.18% |
| 2012 Q3 | −1.17% |
| 2012 Q4 | −0.99% |
| 2013 Q1 | −1.18% |
| 2013 Q2 | −0.86% |
| 2013 Q3 | −0.30% |
| 2013 Q4 | −0.14% |
| 2014 Q1 | +0.51% |
| 2014 Q2 | +0.95% |
| 2014 Q3 | +0.15% |
| 2014 Q4 | −0.06% |
| 2015 Q1 | +0.37% |
| 2015 Q2 | +0.83% |
| 2015 Q3 | −0.03% |
| 2015 Q4 | +0.42% |
| 2016 Q1 | +0.39% |
| 2016 Q2 | −0.06% |
| 2016 Q3 | −0.45% |
| 2016 Q4 | −0.36% |
| 2017 Q1 | −0.52% |
| 2017 Q2 | +0.39% |
| 2017 Q3 | −0.19% |
| 2017 Q4 | −0.22% |
| 2018 Q1 | +0.01% |
| 2018 Q2 | +0.31% |
| 2018 Q3 | +0.51% |
| 2018 Q4 | +0.36% |
| 2019 Q1 | −0.65% |
| 2019 Q2 | −0.08% |
| 2019 Q3 | −0.43% |
| 2019 Q4 | −0.56% |
| 2020 Q1 | −2.40% |
| 2020 Q2 | −19.67% |
| 2020 Q3 | −12.72% |
| 2020 Q4 | −6.45% |
| 2021 Q1 | −4.66% |
| 2021 Q2 | −5.91% |
| 2021 Q3 | −1.36% |
| 2021 Q4 | −1.21% |
| 2022 Q1 | −0.39% |
| 2022 Q2 | +0.32% |
| 2022 Q3 | −0.57% |
| 2022 Q4 | −0.50% |
| 2023 Q1 | +0.25% |
| 2023 Q2 | −0.12% |
| 2023 Q3 | −1.25% |
| 2023 Q4 | −1.48% |
| 2024 Q1 | −7.07% |
| 2024 Q2 | −0.91% |
| 2024 Q3 | −0.86% |
| 2024 Q4 | −1.41% |
| 2025 Q1 | −1.07% |
| 2025 Q2 | −1.60% |
| 2025 Q3 | −0.73% |
| 2025 Q4 | −1.64% |
| 2026 Q1 | −1.85% |
| 2026 Q2 | −1.69% |
2024 Q1 shows an isolated, extreme deficit (−$214.6B, −7.1% of nominal GDP) against the surrounding quarters (−$44.6B in 2023 Q4; −$28.1B in 2024 Q2) — a one-quarter swing far outside this series' typical range. Countability has not located a citable, official explanation for this specific quarter's magnitude in Statistics Canada's published documentation for this table, and none is asserted here. Read this quarter as an outlier, not as a change in the underlying quarterly trend.
Revenue against expenditure — the balance in its two parts
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
1991 Q3 → 2026 Q2 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis)
View the data table for Revenue against expenditure — the balance in its two parts (140 periods × 2 series)
| Period | Revenue | Expenditure |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 Q3 | $130.2B | $166.8B |
| 1991 Q4 | $132.0B | $164.6B |
| 1992 Q1 | $140.0B | $166.7B |
| 1992 Q2 | $131.1B | $165.5B |
| 1992 Q3 | $126.2B | $166.9B |
| 1992 Q4 | $128.8B | $166.5B |
| 1993 Q1 | $139.3B | $175.2B |
| 1993 Q2 | $122.8B | $165.9B |
| 1993 Q3 | $127.7B | $166.3B |
| 1993 Q4 | $131.3B | $169.5B |
| 1994 Q1 | $127.7B | $162.0B |
| 1994 Q2 | $130.9B | $167.9B |
| 1994 Q3 | $137.1B | $170.0B |
| 1994 Q4 | $137.9B | $172.8B |
| 1995 Q1 | $141.3B | $171.3B |
| 1995 Q2 | $138.8B | $177.3B |
| 1995 Q3 | $143.7B | $174.6B |
| 1995 Q4 | $144.8B | $172.7B |
| 1996 Q1 | $144.9B | $177.1B |
| 1996 Q2 | $147.8B | $168.0B |
| 1996 Q3 | $151.7B | $167.2B |
| 1996 Q4 | $157.2B | $168.2B |
| 1997 Q1 | $161.8B | $164.2B |
| 1997 Q2 | $167.5B | $161.4B |
| 1997 Q3 | $167.0B | $159.6B |
| 1997 Q4 | $172.4B | $161.7B |
| 1998 Q1 | $169.2B | $167.0B |
| 1998 Q2 | $172.7B | $162.7B |
| 1998 Q3 | $173.4B | $165.2B |
| 1998 Q4 | $173.4B | $167.6B |
| 1999 Q1 | $176.3B | $174.0B |
| 1999 Q2 | $181.9B | $183.0B |
| 1999 Q3 | $185.3B | $170.1B |
| 1999 Q4 | $187.6B | $170.3B |
| 2000 Q1 | $198.8B | $176.2B |
| 2000 Q2 | $201.3B | $190.2B |
| 2000 Q3 | $202.0B | $176.7B |
| 2000 Q4 | $205.2B | $184.6B |
| 2001 Q1 | $202.5B | $186.8B |
| 2001 Q2 | $207.6B | $186.3B |
| 2001 Q3 | $195.4B | $186.1B |
| 2001 Q4 | $190.0B | $189.2B |
| 2002 Q1 | $185.3B | $183.7B |
| 2002 Q2 | $194.9B | $184.5B |
| 2002 Q3 | $196.3B | $186.4B |
| 2002 Q4 | $202.5B | $189.3B |
| 2003 Q1 | $202.0B | $191.9B |
| 2003 Q2 | $194.6B | $206.9B |
| 2003 Q3 | $202.9B | $194.7B |
| 2003 Q4 | $203.8B | $193.0B |
| 2004 Q1 | $207.4B | $194.3B |
| 2004 Q2 | $207.2B | $205.7B |
| 2004 Q3 | $212.8B | $196.7B |
| 2004 Q4 | $211.5B | $199.9B |
| 2005 Q1 | $222.2B | $231.6B |
| 2005 Q2 | $219.1B | $213.1B |
| 2005 Q3 | $221.0B | $224.6B |
| 2005 Q4 | $223.3B | $212.6B |
| 2006 Q1 | $228.7B | $214.9B |
| 2006 Q2 | $232.1B | $213.5B |
| 2006 Q3 | $230.7B | $232.5B |
| 2006 Q4 | $238.1B | $219.9B |
| 2007 Q1 | $236.5B | $223.0B |
| 2007 Q2 | $251.3B | $234.4B |
| 2007 Q3 | $251.0B | $231.4B |
| 2007 Q4 | $245.7B | $235.9B |
| 2008 Q1 | $246.5B | $245.0B |
| 2008 Q2 | $241.3B | $248.6B |
| 2008 Q3 | $244.2B | $241.6B |
| 2008 Q4 | $231.8B | $242.5B |
| 2009 Q1 | $229.4B | $244.3B |
| 2009 Q2 | $220.0B | $255.3B |
| 2009 Q3 | $225.0B | $257.7B |
| 2009 Q4 | $230.8B | $262.8B |
| 2010 Q1 | $227.8B | $280.8B |
| 2010 Q2 | $231.3B | $263.6B |
| 2010 Q3 | $226.4B | $284.3B |
| 2010 Q4 | $233.6B | $271.7B |
| 2011 Q1 | $241.3B | $269.1B |
| 2011 Q2 | $245.6B | $267.3B |
| 2011 Q3 | $247.3B | $277.8B |
| 2011 Q4 | $248.6B | $272.3B |
| 2012 Q1 | $253.8B | $271.6B |
| 2012 Q2 | $250.7B | $271.2B |
| 2012 Q3 | $250.9B | $271.3B |
| 2012 Q4 | $254.2B | $271.9B |
| 2013 Q1 | $251.4B | $272.3B |
| 2013 Q2 | $257.1B | $273.4B |
| 2013 Q3 | $269.0B | $275.9B |
| 2013 Q4 | $269.2B | $272.4B |
| 2014 Q1 | $278.0B | $272.1B |
| 2014 Q2 | $271.5B | $274.1B |
| 2014 Q3 | $277.6B | $275.1B |
| 2014 Q4 | $273.8B | $275.1B |
| 2015 Q1 | $278.4B | $278.6B |
| 2015 Q2 | $294.1B | $281.1B |
| 2015 Q3 | $285.4B | $287.3B |
| 2015 Q4 | $292.3B | $284.3B |
| 2016 Q1 | $294.3B | $286.8B |
| 2016 Q2 | $292.7B | $294.1B |
| 2016 Q3 | $288.0B | $297.7B |
| 2016 Q4 | $297.7B | $304.1B |
| 2017 Q1 | $301.3B | $314.5B |
| 2017 Q2 | $322.9B | $314.2B |
| 2017 Q3 | $310.7B | $313.7B |
| 2017 Q4 | $314.1B | $317.1B |
| 2018 Q1 | $327.9B | $324.8B |
| 2018 Q2 | $331.3B | $321.7B |
| 2018 Q3 | $344.1B | $327.8B |
| 2018 Q4 | $345.1B | $334.1B |
| 2019 Q1 | $338.4B | $349.3B |
| 2019 Q2 | $341.7B | $354.3B |
| 2019 Q3 | $339.1B | $346.0B |
| 2019 Q4 | $343.3B | $353.7B |
| 2020 Q1 | $337.7B | $392.4B |
| 2020 Q2 | $325.4B | $718.9B |
| 2020 Q3 | $346.1B | $629.0B |
| 2020 Q4 | $353.0B | $501.0B |
| 2021 Q1 | $418.6B | $529.0B |
| 2021 Q2 | $388.4B | $535.3B |
| 2021 Q3 | $408.1B | $478.4B |
| 2021 Q4 | $422.2B | $454.6B |
| 2022 Q1 | $429.6B | $442.0B |
| 2022 Q2 | $434.2B | $424.0B |
| 2022 Q3 | $447.0B | $463.6B |
| 2022 Q4 | $444.7B | $459.6B |
| 2023 Q1 | $469.0B | $461.0B |
| 2023 Q2 | $456.1B | $459.8B |
| 2023 Q3 | $455.5B | $492.2B |
| 2023 Q4 | $462.5B | $513.6B |
| 2024 Q1 | $472.1B | $683.7B |
| 2024 Q2 | $487.4B | $512.7B |
| 2024 Q3 | $489.2B | $512.7B |
| 2024 Q4 | $498.3B | $539.2B |
| 2025 Q1 | $521.9B | $552.6B |
| 2025 Q2 | $497.5B | $550.2B |
| 2025 Q3 | $507.6B | $528.2B |
| 2025 Q4 | $503.9B | $546.5B |
| 2026 Q1 | $513.9B | $569.2B |
| 2026 Q2 | $522.1B | $578.7B |
Where federal revenue comes from: total, income taxes, corporate share
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
1991 Q3 → 2026 Q2 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis)
View the data table for Where federal revenue comes from: total, income taxes, corporate share (140 periods × 3 series)
| Period | Total revenue | Taxes on incomes | Of which: from corporations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 Q3 | $130.2B | $71.7B | $10.1B |
| 1991 Q4 | $132.0B | $71.8B | $11.0B |
| 1992 Q1 | $140.0B | $78.6B | $10.5B |
| 1992 Q2 | $131.1B | $72.4B | $9.1B |
| 1992 Q3 | $126.2B | $66.0B | $11.1B |
| 1992 Q4 | $128.8B | $69.4B | $9.3B |
| 1993 Q1 | $139.3B | $79.7B | $11.6B |
| 1993 Q2 | $122.8B | $63.8B | $11.9B |
| 1993 Q3 | $127.7B | $69.5B | $10.0B |
| 1993 Q4 | $131.3B | $70.0B | $9.3B |
| 1994 Q1 | $127.7B | $66.3B | $11.0B |
| 1994 Q2 | $130.9B | $71.4B | $12.1B |
| 1994 Q3 | $137.1B | $77.4B | $13.1B |
| 1994 Q4 | $137.9B | $75.4B | $12.5B |
| 1995 Q1 | $141.3B | $79.0B | $12.8B |
| 1995 Q2 | $138.8B | $76.6B | $12.8B |
| 1995 Q3 | $143.7B | $80.7B | $13.7B |
| 1995 Q4 | $144.8B | $79.4B | $14.1B |
| 1996 Q1 | $144.9B | $82.0B | $14.6B |
| 1996 Q2 | $147.8B | $86.1B | $15.8B |
| 1996 Q3 | $151.7B | $88.2B | $16.8B |
| 1996 Q4 | $157.2B | $90.8B | $17.6B |
| 1997 Q1 | $161.8B | $93.3B | $18.0B |
| 1997 Q2 | $167.5B | $95.7B | $19.7B |
| 1997 Q3 | $167.0B | $96.3B | $20.7B |
| 1997 Q4 | $172.4B | $102.5B | $22.5B |
| 1998 Q1 | $169.2B | $99.6B | $20.0B |
| 1998 Q2 | $172.7B | $102.5B | $19.5B |
| 1998 Q3 | $173.4B | $102.7B | $18.6B |
| 1998 Q4 | $173.4B | $104.4B | $19.6B |
| 1999 Q1 | $176.3B | $105.8B | $21.8B |
| 1999 Q2 | $181.9B | $110.5B | $24.5B |
| 1999 Q3 | $185.3B | $114.2B | $27.1B |
| 1999 Q4 | $187.6B | $116.3B | $29.8B |
| 2000 Q1 | $198.8B | $123.5B | $30.9B |
| 2000 Q2 | $201.3B | $126.2B | $32.3B |
| 2000 Q3 | $202.0B | $125.5B | $31.3B |
| 2000 Q4 | $205.2B | $127.9B | $32.6B |
| 2001 Q1 | $202.5B | $124.4B | $29.6B |
| 2001 Q2 | $207.6B | $130.8B | $26.4B |
| 2001 Q3 | $195.4B | $118.7B | $21.8B |
| 2001 Q4 | $190.0B | $114.8B | $19.1B |
| 2002 Q1 | $185.3B | $107.4B | $21.5B |
| 2002 Q2 | $194.9B | $117.6B | $24.1B |
| 2002 Q3 | $196.3B | $117.9B | $25.2B |
| 2002 Q4 | $202.5B | $121.7B | $26.3B |
| 2003 Q1 | $202.0B | $121.5B | $29.0B |
| 2003 Q2 | $194.6B | $114.7B | $26.7B |
| 2003 Q3 | $202.9B | $122.6B | $27.6B |
| 2003 Q4 | $203.8B | $123.5B | $28.3B |
| 2004 Q1 | $207.4B | $130.3B | $30.0B |
| 2004 Q2 | $207.2B | $128.8B | $32.2B |
| 2004 Q3 | $212.8B | $133.6B | $32.2B |
| 2004 Q4 | $211.5B | $132.7B | $32.6B |
| 2005 Q1 | $222.2B | $141.2B | $31.2B |
| 2005 Q2 | $219.1B | $138.2B | $31.6B |
| 2005 Q3 | $221.0B | $139.5B | $32.5B |
| 2005 Q4 | $223.3B | $141.8B | $33.6B |
| 2006 Q1 | $228.7B | $146.0B | $35.1B |
| 2006 Q2 | $232.1B | $148.5B | $36.2B |
| 2006 Q3 | $230.7B | $151.4B | $39.5B |
| 2006 Q4 | $238.1B | $158.7B | $42.8B |
| 2007 Q1 | $236.5B | $154.8B | $39.5B |
| 2007 Q2 | $251.3B | $167.0B | $37.5B |
| 2007 Q3 | $251.0B | $165.0B | $37.0B |
| 2007 Q4 | $245.7B | $160.8B | $34.3B |
| 2008 Q1 | $246.5B | $167.4B | $35.5B |
| 2008 Q2 | $241.3B | $161.3B | $39.2B |
| 2008 Q3 | $244.2B | $163.2B | $37.4B |
| 2008 Q4 | $231.8B | $152.7B | $29.0B |
| 2009 Q1 | $229.4B | $150.5B | $26.8B |
| 2009 Q2 | $220.0B | $142.4B | $25.8B |
| 2009 Q3 | $225.0B | $148.0B | $35.9B |
| 2009 Q4 | $230.8B | $152.8B | $42.5B |
| 2010 Q1 | $227.8B | $146.8B | $42.6B |
| 2010 Q2 | $231.3B | $151.5B | $34.8B |
| 2010 Q3 | $226.4B | $144.9B | $26.1B |
| 2010 Q4 | $233.6B | $150.8B | $30.1B |
| 2011 Q1 | $241.3B | $156.2B | $31.4B |
| 2011 Q2 | $245.6B | $161.8B | $36.0B |
| 2011 Q3 | $247.3B | $163.6B | $36.5B |
| 2011 Q4 | $248.6B | $164.7B | $36.8B |
| 2012 Q1 | $253.8B | $158.4B | $34.8B |
| 2012 Q2 | $250.7B | $165.9B | $35.2B |
| 2012 Q3 | $250.9B | $165.6B | $35.8B |
| 2012 Q4 | $254.2B | $169.5B | $36.6B |
| 2013 Q1 | $251.4B | $165.0B | $36.3B |
| 2013 Q2 | $257.1B | $168.7B | $37.1B |
| 2013 Q3 | $269.0B | $172.9B | $39.0B |
| 2013 Q4 | $269.2B | $178.9B | $40.3B |
| 2014 Q1 | $278.0B | $185.6B | $40.7B |
| 2014 Q2 | $271.5B | $179.8B | $41.6B |
| 2014 Q3 | $277.6B | $185.0B | $42.6B |
| 2014 Q4 | $273.8B | $182.0B | $42.0B |
| 2015 Q1 | $278.4B | $186.7B | $41.5B |
| 2015 Q2 | $294.1B | $190.9B | $42.0B |
| 2015 Q3 | $285.4B | $194.1B | $41.7B |
| 2015 Q4 | $292.3B | $195.7B | $41.7B |
| 2016 Q1 | $294.3B | $200.8B | $42.5B |
| 2016 Q2 | $292.7B | $191.7B | $45.1B |
| 2016 Q3 | $288.0B | $194.3B | $48.1B |
| 2016 Q4 | $297.7B | $200.0B | $50.0B |
| 2017 Q1 | $301.3B | $205.5B | $50.0B |
| 2017 Q2 | $322.9B | $208.4B | $50.7B |
| 2017 Q3 | $310.7B | $210.6B | $51.3B |
| 2017 Q4 | $314.1B | $215.2B | $52.4B |
| 2018 Q1 | $327.9B | $221.2B | $54.2B |
| 2018 Q2 | $331.3B | $226.3B | $54.7B |
| 2018 Q3 | $344.1B | $232.4B | $58.3B |
| 2018 Q4 | $345.1B | $235.1B | $58.8B |
| 2019 Q1 | $338.4B | $229.7B | $52.7B |
| 2019 Q2 | $341.7B | $228.1B | $52.7B |
| 2019 Q3 | $339.1B | $229.9B | $53.0B |
| 2019 Q4 | $343.3B | $234.7B | $53.7B |
| 2020 Q1 | $337.7B | $234.8B | $54.4B |
| 2020 Q2 | $325.4B | $229.9B | $54.0B |
| 2020 Q3 | $346.1B | $241.4B | $58.7B |
| 2020 Q4 | $353.0B | $247.2B | $62.6B |
| 2021 Q1 | $418.6B | $260.0B | $71.4B |
| 2021 Q2 | $388.4B | $276.8B | $77.5B |
| 2021 Q3 | $408.1B | $289.3B | $80.3B |
| 2021 Q4 | $422.2B | $299.2B | $82.8B |
| 2022 Q1 | $429.6B | $300.1B | $82.2B |
| 2022 Q2 | $434.2B | $307.5B | $89.6B |
| 2022 Q3 | $447.0B | $319.5B | $96.0B |
| 2022 Q4 | $444.7B | $311.5B | $88.4B |
| 2023 Q1 | $469.0B | $328.0B | $99.4B |
| 2023 Q2 | $456.1B | $315.0B | $85.0B |
| 2023 Q3 | $455.5B | $314.9B | $83.5B |
| 2023 Q4 | $462.5B | $318.9B | $83.3B |
| 2024 Q1 | $472.1B | $321.2B | $79.9B |
| 2024 Q2 | $487.4B | $333.7B | $85.5B |
| 2024 Q3 | $489.2B | $338.2B | $89.9B |
| 2024 Q4 | $498.3B | $344.1B | $90.5B |
| 2025 Q1 | $521.9B | $357.5B | $97.2B |
| 2025 Q2 | $497.5B | $345.1B | $92.8B |
| 2025 Q3 | $507.6B | $357.4B | $97.3B |
| 2025 Q4 | $503.9B | $353.6B | $90.9B |
| 2026 Q1 | $513.9B | $366.6B | $94.8B |
| 2026 Q2 | $522.1B | $371.6B | $98.8B |
Where it goes: transfers to households, to other governments, and interest on debt
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
1991 Q3 → 2026 Q2 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis)
View the data table for Where it goes: transfers to households, to other governments, and interest on debt (140 periods × 3 series)
| Period | Transfers to households | Transfers to other governments | Interest on debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 Q3 | $44.1B | $33.6B | $41.0B |
| 1991 Q4 | $44.0B | $33.2B | $40.0B |
| 1992 Q1 | $45.2B | $34.5B | $40.6B |
| 1992 Q2 | $45.6B | $33.2B | $40.1B |
| 1992 Q3 | $47.2B | $34.5B | $38.9B |
| 1992 Q4 | $46.9B | $34.1B | $38.7B |
| 1993 Q1 | $48.0B | $39.2B | $40.0B |
| 1993 Q2 | $48.4B | $31.5B | $39.3B |
| 1993 Q3 | $47.5B | $34.4B | $38.8B |
| 1993 Q4 | $47.2B | $35.8B | $38.9B |
| 1994 Q1 | $46.8B | $31.2B | $37.3B |
| 1994 Q2 | $46.9B | $35.4B | $39.3B |
| 1994 Q3 | $46.1B | $35.4B | $41.6B |
| 1994 Q4 | $45.9B | $36.4B | $42.5B |
| 1995 Q1 | $45.3B | $33.6B | $44.2B |
| 1995 Q2 | $44.6B | $39.3B | $47.8B |
| 1995 Q3 | $43.9B | $38.7B | $46.4B |
| 1995 Q4 | $45.1B | $36.5B | $46.6B |
| 1996 Q1 | $45.1B | $33.8B | $46.7B |
| 1996 Q2 | $44.8B | $31.9B | $45.4B |
| 1996 Q3 | $44.4B | $32.3B | $44.9B |
| 1996 Q4 | $44.2B | $34.1B | $44.4B |
| 1997 Q1 | $44.1B | $31.7B | $43.9B |
| 1997 Q2 | $44.5B | $28.4B | $43.6B |
| 1997 Q3 | $44.0B | $27.8B | $43.2B |
| 1997 Q4 | $44.0B | $29.8B | $43.0B |
| 1998 Q1 | $44.2B | $31.9B | $43.8B |
| 1998 Q2 | $43.8B | $29.9B | $43.8B |
| 1998 Q3 | $44.3B | $30.3B | $43.9B |
| 1998 Q4 | $45.1B | $31.6B | $44.1B |
| 1999 Q1 | $45.4B | $36.1B | $43.4B |
| 1999 Q2 | $45.4B | $47.1B | $43.6B |
| 1999 Q3 | $45.1B | $32.5B | $43.5B |
| 1999 Q4 | $45.4B | $31.4B | $44.1B |
| 2000 Q1 | $49.2B | $32.3B | $44.2B |
| 2000 Q2 | $45.7B | $45.3B | $44.3B |
| 2000 Q3 | $45.7B | $32.4B | $44.8B |
| 2000 Q4 | $46.6B | $37.1B | $48.0B |
| 2001 Q1 | $53.7B | $36.9B | $44.7B |
| 2001 Q2 | $49.4B | $41.5B | $41.3B |
| 2001 Q3 | $50.2B | $39.3B | $41.1B |
| 2001 Q4 | $52.0B | $39.9B | $40.2B |
| 2002 Q1 | $53.2B | $35.8B | $37.5B |
| 2002 Q2 | $53.0B | $37.8B | $36.9B |
| 2002 Q3 | $53.3B | $38.8B | $36.4B |
| 2002 Q4 | $53.9B | $40.2B | $36.3B |
| 2003 Q1 | $54.1B | $42.0B | $36.1B |
| 2003 Q2 | $55.5B | $55.3B | $35.1B |
| 2003 Q3 | $55.3B | $42.9B | $34.8B |
| 2003 Q4 | $56.1B | $40.6B | $34.6B |
| 2004 Q1 | $56.9B | $40.3B | $34.5B |
| 2004 Q2 | $56.9B | $51.0B | $34.0B |
| 2004 Q3 | $57.2B | $44.0B | $33.0B |
| 2004 Q4 | $57.3B | $44.4B | $32.3B |
| 2005 Q1 | $57.9B | $74.9B | $32.1B |
| 2005 Q2 | $58.5B | $55.9B | $32.3B |
| 2005 Q3 | $58.3B | $65.6B | $32.1B |
| 2005 Q4 | $59.1B | $54.2B | $31.9B |
| 2006 Q1 | $62.0B | $53.2B | $32.2B |
| 2006 Q2 | $59.4B | $53.9B | $32.2B |
| 2006 Q3 | $62.5B | $69.2B | $32.1B |
| 2006 Q4 | $63.6B | $54.1B | $32.1B |
| 2007 Q1 | $63.1B | $56.2B | $32.4B |
| 2007 Q2 | $64.3B | $69.0B | $31.6B |
| 2007 Q3 | $69.7B | $60.2B | $31.3B |
| 2007 Q4 | $70.6B | $64.6B | $31.0B |
| 2008 Q1 | $71.5B | $67.3B | $31.1B |
| 2008 Q2 | $67.5B | $71.8B | $30.3B |
| 2008 Q3 | $68.5B | $68.4B | $30.8B |
| 2008 Q4 | $70.1B | $67.1B | $28.7B |
| 2009 Q1 | $73.1B | $66.5B | $27.5B |
| 2009 Q2 | $76.8B | $68.8B | $27.6B |
| 2009 Q3 | $78.6B | $71.3B | $27.2B |
| 2009 Q4 | $78.6B | $73.5B | $26.9B |
| 2010 Q1 | $78.0B | $92.4B | $27.4B |
| 2010 Q2 | $77.5B | $73.0B | $27.0B |
| 2010 Q3 | $78.7B | $82.2B | $28.3B |
| 2010 Q4 | $78.5B | $78.6B | $28.7B |
| 2011 Q1 | $78.6B | $74.9B | $28.7B |
| 2011 Q2 | $78.8B | $73.0B | $29.0B |
| 2011 Q3 | $79.0B | $79.5B | $28.1B |
| 2011 Q4 | $79.4B | $75.9B | $28.2B |
| 2012 Q1 | $80.7B | $79.2B | $27.5B |
| 2012 Q2 | $81.0B | $78.7B | $27.1B |
| 2012 Q3 | $82.1B | $78.2B | $25.5B |
| 2012 Q4 | $82.9B | $77.3B | $27.1B |
| 2013 Q1 | $82.0B | $77.3B | $28.2B |
| 2013 Q2 | $84.2B | $78.4B | $26.5B |
| 2013 Q3 | $84.7B | $81.5B | $26.8B |
| 2013 Q4 | $84.8B | $80.1B | $25.4B |
| 2014 Q1 | $84.7B | $81.4B | $23.9B |
| 2014 Q2 | $85.5B | $80.0B | $26.6B |
| 2014 Q3 | $86.5B | $81.8B | $24.1B |
| 2014 Q4 | $87.5B | $82.6B | $24.3B |
| 2015 Q1 | $93.6B | $81.7B | $21.8B |
| 2015 Q2 | $94.4B | $83.7B | $23.6B |
| 2015 Q3 | $95.4B | $83.9B | $25.7B |
| 2015 Q4 | $95.7B | $84.6B | $22.2B |
| 2016 Q1 | $97.4B | $84.5B | $22.1B |
| 2016 Q2 | $98.9B | $87.8B | $22.0B |
| 2016 Q3 | $104.4B | $87.6B | $21.8B |
| 2016 Q4 | $106.6B | $89.9B | $22.0B |
| 2017 Q1 | $107.0B | $94.7B | $22.2B |
| 2017 Q2 | $109.5B | $92.6B | $20.5B |
| 2017 Q3 | $107.2B | $93.7B | $20.2B |
| 2017 Q4 | $108.9B | $93.7B | $22.8B |
| 2018 Q1 | $109.6B | $95.6B | $24.0B |
| 2018 Q2 | $111.0B | $93.4B | $23.4B |
| 2018 Q3 | $111.0B | $98.5B | $24.1B |
| 2018 Q4 | $112.5B | $100.9B | $23.3B |
| 2019 Q1 | $115.0B | $104.9B | $24.2B |
| 2019 Q2 | $118.1B | $112.7B | $26.1B |
| 2019 Q3 | $116.5B | $103.7B | $24.8B |
| 2019 Q4 | $117.7B | $110.4B | $23.5B |
| 2020 Q1 | $134.7B | $108.9B | $24.2B |
| 2020 Q2 | $344.0B | $124.4B | $18.3B |
| 2020 Q3 | $232.7B | $169.3B | $23.3B |
| 2020 Q4 | $184.2B | $130.7B | $21.7B |
| 2021 Q1 | $201.5B | $120.3B | $22.1B |
| 2021 Q2 | $207.1B | $127.7B | $22.8B |
| 2021 Q3 | $189.6B | $113.6B | $23.9B |
| 2021 Q4 | $150.1B | $144.6B | $24.8B |
| 2022 Q1 | $132.3B | $130.0B | $25.3B |
| 2022 Q2 | $143.5B | $121.6B | $29.9B |
| 2022 Q3 | $153.1B | $145.9B | $31.4B |
| 2022 Q4 | $159.2B | $125.2B | $33.5B |
| 2023 Q1 | $140.7B | $136.7B | $36.9B |
| 2023 Q2 | $148.7B | $134.3B | $38.5B |
| 2023 Q3 | $164.1B | $137.7B | $42.9B |
| 2023 Q4 | $162.0B | $137.0B | $47.3B |
| 2024 Q1 | $160.9B | $193.7B | $49.3B |
| 2024 Q2 | $171.1B | $138.2B | $50.1B |
| 2024 Q3 | $172.9B | $140.2B | $51.3B |
| 2024 Q4 | $175.7B | $149.8B | $50.3B |
| 2025 Q1 | $172.2B | $157.3B | $49.5B |
| 2025 Q2 | $174.0B | $167.6B | $49.5B |
| 2025 Q3 | $170.3B | $149.5B | $49.6B |
| 2025 Q4 | $174.3B | $150.2B | $52.4B |
| 2026 Q1 | $170.3B | $163.5B | $50.9B |
| 2026 Q2 | $191.7B | $163.1B | $52.8B |
The debt-service burden: interest on debt as a share of revenue
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
1991 Q3 → 2026 Q2 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis)
View the data table for The debt-service burden: interest on debt as a share of revenue (140 points)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 1991 Q3 | 31.4% |
| 1991 Q4 | 30.3% |
| 1992 Q1 | 29.0% |
| 1992 Q2 | 30.6% |
| 1992 Q3 | 30.8% |
| 1992 Q4 | 30.0% |
| 1993 Q1 | 28.7% |
| 1993 Q2 | 32.0% |
| 1993 Q3 | 30.3% |
| 1993 Q4 | 29.6% |
| 1994 Q1 | 29.2% |
| 1994 Q2 | 30.0% |
| 1994 Q3 | 30.3% |
| 1994 Q4 | 30.8% |
| 1995 Q1 | 31.3% |
| 1995 Q2 | 34.4% |
| 1995 Q3 | 32.3% |
| 1995 Q4 | 32.2% |
| 1996 Q1 | 32.2% |
| 1996 Q2 | 30.7% |
| 1996 Q3 | 29.6% |
| 1996 Q4 | 28.3% |
| 1997 Q1 | 27.1% |
| 1997 Q2 | 26.0% |
| 1997 Q3 | 25.9% |
| 1997 Q4 | 24.9% |
| 1998 Q1 | 25.9% |
| 1998 Q2 | 25.4% |
| 1998 Q3 | 25.3% |
| 1998 Q4 | 25.4% |
| 1999 Q1 | 24.6% |
| 1999 Q2 | 24.0% |
| 1999 Q3 | 23.5% |
| 1999 Q4 | 23.5% |
| 2000 Q1 | 22.2% |
| 2000 Q2 | 22.0% |
| 2000 Q3 | 22.2% |
| 2000 Q4 | 23.4% |
| 2001 Q1 | 22.1% |
| 2001 Q2 | 19.9% |
| 2001 Q3 | 21.0% |
| 2001 Q4 | 21.2% |
| 2002 Q1 | 20.2% |
| 2002 Q2 | 18.9% |
| 2002 Q3 | 18.5% |
| 2002 Q4 | 17.9% |
| 2003 Q1 | 17.9% |
| 2003 Q2 | 18.1% |
| 2003 Q3 | 17.2% |
| 2003 Q4 | 17.0% |
| 2004 Q1 | 16.6% |
| 2004 Q2 | 16.4% |
| 2004 Q3 | 15.5% |
| 2004 Q4 | 15.3% |
| 2005 Q1 | 14.5% |
| 2005 Q2 | 14.7% |
| 2005 Q3 | 14.5% |
| 2005 Q4 | 14.3% |
| 2006 Q1 | 14.1% |
| 2006 Q2 | 13.9% |
| 2006 Q3 | 13.9% |
| 2006 Q4 | 13.5% |
| 2007 Q1 | 13.7% |
| 2007 Q2 | 12.6% |
| 2007 Q3 | 12.5% |
| 2007 Q4 | 12.6% |
| 2008 Q1 | 12.6% |
| 2008 Q2 | 12.5% |
| 2008 Q3 | 12.6% |
| 2008 Q4 | 12.4% |
| 2009 Q1 | 12.0% |
| 2009 Q2 | 12.5% |
| 2009 Q3 | 12.1% |
| 2009 Q4 | 11.7% |
| 2010 Q1 | 12.0% |
| 2010 Q2 | 11.7% |
| 2010 Q3 | 12.5% |
| 2010 Q4 | 12.3% |
| 2011 Q1 | 11.9% |
| 2011 Q2 | 11.8% |
| 2011 Q3 | 11.3% |
| 2011 Q4 | 11.3% |
| 2012 Q1 | 10.9% |
| 2012 Q2 | 10.8% |
| 2012 Q3 | 10.2% |
| 2012 Q4 | 10.7% |
| 2013 Q1 | 11.2% |
| 2013 Q2 | 10.3% |
| 2013 Q3 | 10.0% |
| 2013 Q4 | 9.4% |
| 2014 Q1 | 8.6% |
| 2014 Q2 | 9.8% |
| 2014 Q3 | 8.7% |
| 2014 Q4 | 8.9% |
| 2015 Q1 | 7.8% |
| 2015 Q2 | 8.0% |
| 2015 Q3 | 9.0% |
| 2015 Q4 | 7.6% |
| 2016 Q1 | 7.5% |
| 2016 Q2 | 7.5% |
| 2016 Q3 | 7.6% |
| 2016 Q4 | 7.4% |
| 2017 Q1 | 7.4% |
| 2017 Q2 | 6.3% |
| 2017 Q3 | 6.5% |
| 2017 Q4 | 7.3% |
| 2018 Q1 | 7.3% |
| 2018 Q2 | 7.1% |
| 2018 Q3 | 7.0% |
| 2018 Q4 | 6.7% |
| 2019 Q1 | 7.2% |
| 2019 Q2 | 7.6% |
| 2019 Q3 | 7.3% |
| 2019 Q4 | 6.9% |
| 2020 Q1 | 7.2% |
| 2020 Q2 | 5.6% |
| 2020 Q3 | 6.7% |
| 2020 Q4 | 6.1% |
| 2021 Q1 | 5.3% |
| 2021 Q2 | 5.9% |
| 2021 Q3 | 5.9% |
| 2021 Q4 | 5.9% |
| 2022 Q1 | 5.9% |
| 2022 Q2 | 6.9% |
| 2022 Q3 | 7.0% |
| 2022 Q4 | 7.5% |
| 2023 Q1 | 7.9% |
| 2023 Q2 | 8.5% |
| 2023 Q3 | 9.4% |
| 2023 Q4 | 10.2% |
| 2024 Q1 | 10.4% |
| 2024 Q2 | 10.3% |
| 2024 Q3 | 10.5% |
| 2024 Q4 | 10.1% |
| 2025 Q1 | 9.5% |
| 2025 Q2 | 9.9% |
| 2025 Q3 | 9.8% |
| 2025 Q4 | 10.4% |
| 2026 Q1 | 9.9% |
| 2026 Q2 | 10.1% |
Federal CGFS net debt / calendar-year GDP
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
FY 2007–08 → FY 2024–25 · Statistics Canada — Canadian government finance statistics for the federal government, annual (CGFS basis) · Statistics Canada — GDP, expenditure-based, quarterly
View the data table for Federal CGFS net debt / calendar-year GDP (18 points)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| FY 2007–08 | 31.4% |
| FY 2008–09 | 30.3% |
| FY 2009–10 | 34.0% |
| FY 2010–11 | 34.2% |
| FY 2011–12 | 35.2% |
| FY 2012–13 | 34.8% |
| FY 2013–14 | 32.6% |
| FY 2014–15 | 32.6% |
| FY 2015–16 | 32.1% |
| FY 2016–17 | 30.7% |
| FY 2017–18 | 29.3% |
| FY 2018–19 | 28.7% |
| FY 2019–20 | 29.8% |
| FY 2020–21 | 41.0% |
| FY 2021–22 | 35.8% |
| FY 2022–23 | 31.6% |
| FY 2023–24 | 32.9% |
| FY 2024–25 | 34.2% |
Correction identified on 2026-09-22. The denominator now averages all four quarterly annual rates for the calendar reference year. Fiscal-year labels and a mixed-period explanation accompany the series. The 2024 reference-year value changes from 35.0% to 34.2% using the same inputs. The largest change at displayed precision is reference year 2021: 37.4% to 35.8%. Read the correction record.
Countability calculation: Canadian Government Finance Statistics (CGFS) reference year Y means the federal fiscal year ending March 31, Y+1. The denominator is calendar-Y GDP, calculated from four quarterly annual rates. The stock and GDP cover different periods. This is not Statistics Canada’s published debt/GDP ratio, which uses annual provincial and territorial economic accounts GDP, or the Public Accounts federal-debt measure.
What this means together
Federal fiscal room is under sustained pressure
Two separate signals describe the same government's fiscal position from different angles. Federal interest payments averaged a larger share of the government's own revenue in the later of the two periods selected by the descriptive scan — a burden measure, distinct from the size of the interest bill in dollar terms alone. Separately, the federal budgetary balance has recorded a run tied for third-longest among unbroken runs of deficits in the available quarterly record, on a National Accounts basis. Neither measure explains the other, and neither is a projection of what comes next. The selected periods do not establish when a change began or its statistical significance.
Federal interest on debt, % of revenue (National Accounts basis): different averages either side of 2023 Q3
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 quarters selects a split in Federal interest on debt, % of revenue (National Accounts basis) at 2023 Q3: mean 6.85 before vs 10.05 after (difference = 4.8× pooled variability). The selected date divides two sets of observations; it does not establish when a change began. This descriptive comparison is not a significance test and does not attribute a cause. Window choice and seasonal patterns can affect it.
Technical details
Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR): 13 consecutive quarters at a negative level
Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR) has been negative for 13 consecutive quarters, beginning in 2023 Q2. The latest reading is −$57,964,000,000 in 2026 Q2. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.
Technical details
What the record says about this domain
Findings
Federal deficit widened to -1.48% of GDP over the four quarters ending 2026 Q2, against the declining-deficit-to-GDP anchor
Over the four quarters from 2025 Q3 through 2026 Q2, federal net lending or borrowing on the National Accounts basis was -1.48% of nominal GDP, versus -1.23% over 2024 Q3 through 2025 Q2 — a year-over-year deterioration. Each ratio divides the sum of four quarterly net-lending/borrowing observations by the sum of GDP for the same quarters; both inputs are seasonally adjusted at annual rates, so their common scaling cancels. The government's fiscal anchor (Budget 2025, reaffirmed in the Spring Economic Update 2026) names a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over 2025-26 to 2030-31. This rolling-year test is Countability's stated pace convention, not a path the government promised each quarter. The National Accounts basis differs from Finance Canada's Public Accounts budgetary balance. Correction: this pace calculation now follows its registered four-quarter convention; the earlier implementation compared single quarters a year apart. The direction on the refreshed evidence is deterioration under either window, but the percentages differ.
Technical details
Registered commitments
Maintain a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon (fiscal anchor announced in Budget 2025, reaffirmed in the Spring Economic Update 2026)
Issuer: Government of Canada (Department of Finance). Stated in Spring Economic Update 2026, reaffirming Budget 2025.
Latest observed: -1.48 % of GDP (federal budgetary balance) (four quarters ending 2026 Q2) against target -1.4 (% of GDP (federal budgetary balance)).
Added 2026-11-11: Budget 2026 projects the deficit at 1.8% of GDP in 2026–27, 1.8% in 2027–28, 1.6% in 2028–29, 1.4% in 2029–30 and 1.3% in 2030–31 (Annex 1, Table A1.4). The endpoint is now a deficit of 1.3% of GDP. The audited deficit for fiscal 2025–26 was 1.2% of GDP (Public Accounts of Canada 2026). Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Added 2026-11-11: On this record's year-over-year convention, 2026–27 is a rise from 2025–26. The budget describes the ratio as projected to decline "over the budget planning horizon". Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Target deadline: 2031-03-31. Original statement: 2026-04-28.
Balance day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29 (fiscal anchor announced in Budget 2025, reaffirmed in the Spring Economic Update 2026)
Issuer: Government of Canada (Department of Finance). Stated in Spring Economic Update 2026, reaffirming Budget 2025.
Latest observed: No matched observation.
Original stated target: 0 (CAD billions, operating balance (day-to-day spending less revenues, Budget accounting basis)).
PBO’s October 20, 2026 outlook projects a $6.2 billion operating surplus in 2028-29 on the government’s operating/capital classification, under PBO’s stated policy and economic assumptions. This is a forecast, not observed compliance.
Forecast source: Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2026 (RP-2627-011-S), published 2026-10-20. PBO's fiscal-year Public Accounts projections on its own nominal-GDP assumptions. Only explicitly verified points are retained; missing intermediate values are not interpolated.
Added 2026-11-11: Budget 2026 (tabled November 5, 2026) projects a day-to-day operating balance of $11.2 billion in 2027–28, "one year ahead of the target set in Budget 2025". The deadline recorded here is unchanged. Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Added 2026-11-11: Basis: the projected balance includes row E of Table A1.6, estimated forgone revenue: $16.8 billion in 2027–28, against $4.7 billion for the same year in Budget 2025 and $6.7 billion in the Spring Economic Update. Recorded revenue minus day-to-day spending is -$5.6 billion in 2027–28 and +$3.3 billion in 2028–29 (Countability calculation from the published rows). Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Measurement status: PBO now publishes an operating-budget assessment and October 2026 projection on the government's operating/capital classification. What remains missing here is a matched observed, continuously updated operating-balance series on that classification; the National Accounts split is not interchangeable.
Target deadline: 2029-03-31. Original statement: 2026-04-28.
Doubling non-U.S. exports by the end of 2035
Issuer: Government of Canada (Department of Finance). Stated in Budget 2025, restated in Budget 2026 (Budget in brief; Economic and fiscal overview, Chart 16).
Latest observed: No matched observation.
Original stated target: 600 (billions of dollars a year: nominal goods and services exports to non-U.S. destinations, balance of payments basis (Chart 16 path value for 2035)).
Measurement status: Measure: nominal goods and services exports to non-U.S. destinations, balance of payments basis, as in the budget's Chart 16. The overview states the goal as: "double exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade, generating an additional $300 billion in annual trade". The Chart 16 path rises from $299.7 billion in 2024 to $600 billion in 2035. No regularly updated reading of this measure is published on this record yet.
Target deadline: 2035-12-31. Original statement: 2026-11-05.
Institutional benchmarks
Budget 2026 ("Masters of our destiny")
Government's own fiscal projection in Budget 2026, stated against the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: a deficit-to-GDP ratio projected to decline over the budget planning horizon, and day-to-day operating spending balanced by revenues by fiscal year 2028-29
Measure: pct of gdp.
Spring Economic Update 2026 ("Canada Strong For All")
Government's own fiscal projection, reaffirming the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: (1) a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon, and (2) balancing day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29
Measure: pct of gdp.
Actuarial Report (32nd) on the Canada Pension Plan (Revised version), as at 31 December 2024
The Chief Actuary's statutory triennial valuation of the Canada Pension Plan (section 115 of the Canada Pension Plan, which provides that an actuarial report shall be prepared every three years): 75-year financial projections of the base and additional CPP as at 31 December 2024, including the minimum contribution rates needed to sustain each part of the Plan — the legislated benchmark for the federal-provincial financial state review of the CPP
Measure: assets to expenditures ratio.
Economic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026 (RP-2627-002-S)
PBO's independent baseline fiscal projection under current legislated policy settings (no new measures assumed) — a baseline for parliamentary scrutiny, explicitly not a critique of the government's fiscal anchors
Measure: pct of gdp.
Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2026 (RP-2627-011-S)
PBO's October current-policy projection, incorporating economic data through October 6 and measures announced since the Spring Economic Update. It assesses the two fiscal anchors separately; these are forecasts, not observed compliance.
Measure: pct of gdp.
Where institutions disagree
What is the federal deficit projected to be in 2025-26?
Retained April–June 2026 forecast comparison. Later qualified outlooks appear separately in the model record; this is not a same-vintage current comparison.
Government's own current-policy-plus-announced-measures projection, Public Accounts basis → source
PBO's independent baseline projection under current legislated policy, no new measures assumed → source
Why they differ: PBO's outlook (published five weeks after the Spring Economic Update) states its deficit path averages $4.6B/year above the government's own projection, which it attributes to lower projected revenue (particularly personal income tax) and higher projected program expenses under PBO's independent economic and revenue models. Not a vintage-only difference: PBO explicitly frames its figures as an independent baseline, not a restatement of the government's own numbers.
Added 2026-11-11: The audited fiscal 2025–26 deficit of $39.316 billion (Public Accounts of Canada 2026, tabled November 6) now settles the year both projections were about. The two projections are kept here as a historical record; this record makes no finding about either. Source: Public Accounts of Canada 2026
How much will Canada's federal debt-to-GDP ratio rise by 2030-31?
Retained April–June 2026 forecast comparison. Later qualified outlooks appear separately in the model record; this is not a same-vintage current comparison.
Government's own projection: a hump-shaped path, net +0.5 percentage points over the full horizon (rises to a peak in 2028-29, then partially retreats). The government's stated fiscal anchor targets the DEFICIT-to-GDP ratio, which does decline monotonically in this same projection (-2.1% to -1.4%) — the debt-to-GDP ratio itself is not the anchored quantity and is not projected to fall below where it starts. → source
PBO's independent baseline: net +1.2 percentage points, rising continuously under current policy settings with no mid-horizon retreat — more than double Finance's own net increase → source
Magnitude: 0.9pp gap in the projected 2030-31 ending ratio (41.6% vs 42.5%); PBO's projected increase (+1.2pp) is more than double Finance's own (+0.5pp net, with a hump-shaped path vs PBO's continuous rise)
Why they differ: Different baselines, not different arithmetic: Finance Canada's path embeds its own policy plans and announced measures; PBO's path holds current legislated policy constant with no new measures, and projects materially lower revenue and higher program expenses over the same window. The two institutions are answering 'what happens under my own assumptions', not disputing a single fact.
Added 2026-11-11: The current pair is Budget 2026, which projects federal debt at 40.1% of GDP in 2030–31, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer's October 2026 outlook, which projects 42.6%. The two are not like-for-like: the October outlook predates the audited fiscal 2025–26 result and does not include Budget 2026 measures. The April and June pair above is kept as history. Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Evidence gaps
Is the federal government on track to balance day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29?
What is missing: Budget 2026 shows the operating balance met in 2027–28. One line of that calculation is estimated forgone tax revenue ($16.8 billion in 2027–28). The budget states that it 'is not recorded in the government's financial statements and is therefore not observed directly.' No audited statement reports that line or the capital classification the anchor uses.
Consequence: The anchor's outcome will rest partly on the government's own estimate. Countability shows the published calculation and the recorded-revenue figure side by side and makes no compliance finding.
November 11, 2026: scope updated with Budget 2026, tabled November 5. October 27, 2026: scope updated using the October PBO outlook. Earlier wording is shown below.
Earlier wording
Wording replaced on 11 November 2026.
What was missing: PBO now publishes an operating-budget assessment and October 2026 projection on the government's operating/capital classification. What remains missing here is a matched observed, continuously updated operating-balance series on that classification; the National Accounts split is not interchangeable.
Consequence: The October PBO model projects a $6.2 billion operating surplus in 2028-29 under its assumptions. That forecast is shown beside the commitment; it is not an observed compliance finding and does not justify manufacturing an operating balance from unmatched National Accounts components.
What would close it: A published government or StatsCan methodology mapping the Budget's operating/capital expenditure split onto a continuously updated machine-readable series.
Wording replaced on 27 October 2026.
What was missing: No official machine-readable series isolates 'day-to-day operating spending' from capital investment on the same accounting basis the government uses for this anchor. Statistics Canada's National Accounts federal expenditure series (table 36-10-0477) separates final consumption expenditure from non-financial capital acquisition, but does not reproduce the Budget's own operating/capital split — the two decompositions are not confirmed to be identical.
Consequence: This commitment is published as a registered commitment without a compliance claim. Countability will not construct a proxy operating-balance measure by subtracting StatsCan capital-acquisition from federal expenditure absent confirmation that this matches the Budget's own definition.
What would close it: A published government or StatsCan methodology mapping the Budget's operating/capital expenditure split onto a continuously updated machine-readable series.
How does Canada's actual federal debt-to-GDP ratio compare with Finance Canada's and PBO's projected paths?
What is missing: The only StatsCan machine-readable federal balance-sheet series (table 10-10-0016, Canadian Government Finance Statistics basis) lags materially behind the projection vintages: its cube metadata reports a latest reference year of 2024, roughly two fiscal years behind the 2025-26 starting point of both institutions' projection paths. It is also conceptually distinct from the Public Accounts 'federal debt' (accumulated deficit) concept both Finance Canada and PBO use in their own tables — CGFS liabilities and Public Accounts federal debt are not confirmed to be composed identically.
Consequence: Countability cannot publish a same-basis, current-vintage compliance comparison of actual federal debt-to-GDP against either institution's projected path. The two projected paths are published side by side as modelled benchmarks (never merged); Countability's own StatsCan-sourced debt figure is shown separately as clearly-dated context, not blended with either projection.
What share of Canada's exports to the United States is actually subject to tariffs right now, and at what effective rates?
What is missing: No official source on either side of the border publishes a continuously updated, machine-readable statement of the tariff status of Canadian exports. The operative documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but the duty actually applied to a shipment depends on USMCA qualification, product classification, exclusions, stacking rules, and later modifications — determinations spread across executive orders, proclamations, agency notices, and rulings, with no consolidated official series.
Consequence: The U.S. Exposure Brief shows the export record beside the dated tariff actions, but it cannot state what fraction of U.S.-bound exports is tariffed or at what effective rate — any such coverage percentage would be an outside model, not a reading of the record. Public claims about 'x per cent of exports now face tariffs' rest on estimates whose assumptions are rarely published.
Are exports to countries other than the United States on a path to double by the end of 2035?
What is missing: The goal is measured on nominal goods and services exports to non-U.S. destinations, on a balance of payments basis. Countability does not yet publish a regularly updated reading on that basis. The Budget 2026 analysis reproduced the budget's own figures once, from Statistics Canada tables.
Consequence: The goal is registered as stated. No progress reading is published.
How is the federal government's in-year fiscal position tracking right now, more currently than StatsCan's quarterly National Accounts release?
What is missing: The machine-readable feed was established in July. The maintained federal fiscal panel now compares the July 2026 Fiscal Monitor with the April–July monthly accounts, retaining the disclosed prior-year difference. The remaining limits concern accounting basis, revisions and assurance, not absence of a feed.
Consequence: Monthly budgetary accounts and the Fiscal Monitor supplement the quarterly National Accounts comparison; they do not replace its statistical basis. In-year results are preliminary and unaudited. The retained one-million-dollar prior-year presentation difference is not silently reconciled.
October 27, 2026: current scope reconciled with the qualified evidence already held; earlier wording and any dated resolution remain historical.
Original dated source-discovery resolution
Resolved 10 July 2026: The feed exists. Finance Canada publishes each month's Fiscal Monitor as a ZIP of CSVs on the Open Government Portal under the Open Government Licence – Canada, in an annual package per year (2026: f5f4327b-2a09-484a-a518-64ca26405386; 2025: 7680320b-c837-4b67-b73f-9361c4a9716d) with one YYYY-MM.zip resource per month. The March 2026 archive was downloaded and read for this resolution: HTTP 200, 18,205 bytes, sha256 fe00ff4a0af189e55f3890424be881e33e112f565ecb8e9f6ce3ab7a35558716, twenty files (Table_1.csv through Table 7.csv, French equivalents, and chart data), parsed end to end with Python's standard library alone. Table_1.csv reports an April-to-March 2025-26 budgetary balance of -55,277 million dollars. This is a downloadable dataset distinct from the HTML report, which is exactly what this gap's closing condition asked for. TWO THINGS THIS RESOLUTION DOES NOT SAY. It does not say Countability now ingests the Fiscal Monitor: it does not, and the consequence recorded above still describes the platform's fiscal indicators, which continue to run on Statistics Canada's National Accounts vintage. Whether to ingest it is a build decision, not a data gap. And it does not say the machine-readable channel is safe to ingest naively: the CSVs carry none of the caveats the HTML narrative carries. Searched across all twenty files in the archive, the phrases 'not final', 'audited', and 'Public Accounts' appear zero times, while the HTML report states that the March results 'are not the final results for 2025-26' -- final results move by billions, in both directions, in the post-March period -- and that the figures 'have not been audited or reviewed by an external auditor'. A fetcher for this source must carry those caveats as curated text; the bytes will not supply them.
Read the qualified current evidence →
Earlier wording
Wording replaced on 27 October 2026.
What was missing: Finance Canada publishes the Fiscal Monitor monthly with near-real-time actual revenue/expense/balance figures on the Public Accounts basis, but as HTML/PDF reports rather than a documented stable machine-readable API or bulk CSV feed comparable to StatsCan's Web Data Service. Countability's ingestion method (StatsCan WDS only, per its local-first/API-first reliability policy) does not reach this source for this reading.
Consequence: Countability's fiscal indicators run on StatsCan's own National Accounts vintage (quarterly, roughly one quarter of publication lag) rather than the Fiscal Monitor's faster monthly Public Accounts cadence; the two bases are related but not identical -- the same vintage/basis mismatch already recorded as its own published evidence gap.
What would close it: Confirmation of a stable, documented, machine-readable Fiscal Monitor data feed (e.g. a downloadable dataset or API distinct from the HTML report), or StatsCan publishing a more timely CGFS-basis federal series.
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Full method, evidence tiers, and licence attribution: Sources & Method.
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