Provincial Fiscal Capacity
Provincial promises and budget forecasts retain their own fiscal-year accounts. Calendar-year National Accounts balances provide separate statistical context, without a target-pace or compliance verdict. The PBO's long-term sustainability assessments answer another question again.
On this page
New forecasts, different fiscal positions
The latest qualified publications for Ontario, Québec and Alberta put fiscal 2026–27 in view. These are issuer forecasts in each province’s own accounts. They are shown separately from calendar-year national accounts and from the PBO’s older long-term sustainability assessment.
| Jurisdiction and publication | Accounting balance | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Ontario · first-quarter finances, August 2026 | -13,844 | After 1,500 reserve |
| Québec · March 2026 budget | -6,265 | Before Generations Fund deposits; BBA balance -8,612 |
| Alberta · first-quarter update, August 2026 | 2,041 | Forecast; includes unallocated contingency |
Ontario: a later return to balance
The August first-quarter update retains the budget’s 13,844 million dollar deficit for 2026–27. The March budget projects balance in 2028–29. Those out-year figures belong to the March budget; the first-quarter update refreshes only 2026–27.
| Fiscal year | Balance | Publication role |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | -13.8 | 2026 budget projection |
| 2027-28 | -6.1 | 2026 budget projection |
| 2028-29 | 0.6 | 2026 budget projection |
The 2026–27 first-quarter balance before reserve is -12,344 million dollars; subtracting the 1,500 million reserve gives -13,844 million. Ontario also changes its debt presentation in 2026–27 to net financial liabilities. No debt trend is spliced across that accounting change here.
Sources: Ontario Budget 2026, chapter 3 (March 26); 2026–27 First Quarter Finances (August 14, updated August 18; information principally through June 30). Source values reproduced without alteration. © King’s Printer for Ontario.
Québec: two balances, one explicit bridge
The accounting deficit and the balance under the Balanced Budget Act answer different questions. The latter also deducts deposits to the Generations Fund and, in later years, includes savings still to be identified.
| Fiscal year | Accounting balance | Gap to resolve | Generations Fund deposits, signed | Balanced Budget Act balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | -7,655 | 0 | -2,289 | -9,944 |
| 2026-27 | -6,265 | 0 | -2,347 | -8,612 |
| 2027-28 | -3,954 | 750 | -2,491 | -5,695 |
| 2028-29 | -1,134 | 2,250 | -2,616 | -1,500 |
| 2029-30 | 780 | 2,000 | -2,780 | 0 |
| 2030-31 | 1,168 | 1,750 | -2,918 | 0 |
For each year: accounting balance + gap to resolve + signed Generations Fund deposits = the published Balanced Budget Act balance. The return to statutory balance in 2029–30 includes 2,000 million dollars of measures still to be identified. It is a conditional plan, not a realized surplus.
Source: Québec Budget 2026–27, table A.3, page A.11 (March 18, 2026).
Alberta: a large revision within the year
The August first-quarter forecast changes the 2026–27 balance from a 9,373 million dollar budget deficit to a 2,041 million surplus. The improvement is 11,414 million dollars. Higher non-renewable resource revenue is a major part of the revised forecast; it remains exposed to commodity prices.
| Measure | Budget baseline, as restated in Q1 | First-quarter forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Balance | -9,373 | 2,041 |
| Revenue | 74,550 | 86,279 |
| Expenses | 83,922 | 84,237 |
| Non-renewable resource revenue | 13,213 | 22,955 |
The province’s rounded revenue and expense lines differ by one million dollars from its reported balance; the issuer’s balance is preserved. This publication also says the 2025–26 year-end results were delayed. A current forecast is not an audited result for either fiscal year.
Source: Alberta 2026–27 First Quarter Fiscal Update, page 3 (August 27, 2026).
No cross-province ranking or common debt measure is inferred. Historical targets retain their original dates; these successor publications show how the current outlook has moved.
Current snapshot
−0.49%
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
−2.34%
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
$16,867
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
Read this figure carefully
Provincial Economic Accounts expenditure over July-1 population of the same calendar year
$15,988
Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.
Read this figure carefully
Provincial Economic Accounts expenditure over July-1 population of the same calendar year
Time-series evidence
Provincial budgetary balances, % of GDP, annual
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
2007 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, provincial and territorial economic accounts, annual · Statistics Canada — Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual
View the data table for Provincial budgetary balances, % of GDP, annual (19 periods × 4 series)
| Period | Ontario | Quebec | Alberta | British Columbia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | −0.01% | +0.21% | +1.79% | −0.09% |
| 2008 | −0.80% | −0.32% | +2.04% | −0.75% |
| 2009 | −2.43% | −1.03% | −1.71% | −2.42% |
| 2010 | −3.62% | −0.40% | −0.96% | −0.99% |
| 2011 | −2.91% | −0.35% | −0.30% | −1.67% |
| 2012 | −2.21% | −0.38% | −0.63% | −2.02% |
| 2013 | −2.18% | −0.31% | +0.00% | −1.24% |
| 2014 | −1.50% | +0.20% | +0.28% | −0.14% |
| 2015 | −0.97% | +0.81% | −2.46% | −0.06% |
| 2016 | −0.30% | +1.09% | −4.47% | +0.76% |
| 2017 | +0.02% | +1.29% | −3.35% | +0.71% |
| 2018 | −0.93% | +1.93% | −3.00% | +0.57% |
| 2019 | −1.01% | +2.04% | −2.98% | +0.46% |
| 2020 | −1.92% | +1.07% | −5.01% | −2.40% |
| 2021 | −1.16% | +0.96% | −1.74% | −0.79% |
| 2022 | −0.46% | −0.70% | +2.34% | +0.94% |
| 2023 | −1.17% | −1.05% | +1.05% | −2.15% |
| 2024 | −1.34% | −0.80% | +1.69% | −1.99% |
| 2025 | −2.34% | −0.49% | +0.70% | −1.75% |
What each province spends per resident
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
2007 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, provincial and territorial economic accounts, annual · Statistics Canada — Population estimates on July 1, by age and gender, annual
View the data table for What each province spends per resident (19 periods × 4 series)
| Period | Ontario | Quebec | Alberta | British Columbia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | $8,514 | $11,086 | $10,155 | $8,960 |
| 2008 | $8,948 | $11,388 | $11,146 | $9,547 |
| 2009 | $9,644 | $11,756 | $11,429 | $9,723 |
| 2010 | $10,862 | $11,837 | $11,678 | $9,848 |
| 2011 | $10,477 | $12,371 | $11,913 | $10,199 |
| 2012 | $10,490 | $12,700 | $12,021 | $10,667 |
| 2013 | $10,672 | $13,190 | $12,098 | $10,456 |
| 2014 | $10,686 | $13,468 | $12,636 | $10,439 |
| 2015 | $11,037 | $13,578 | $12,869 | $10,639 |
| 2016 | $11,112 | $13,779 | $13,572 | $10,829 |
| 2017 | $11,353 | $14,222 | $13,842 | $11,186 |
| 2018 | $12,207 | $14,791 | $13,996 | $11,638 |
| 2019 | $12,213 | $15,325 | $14,303 | $12,209 |
| 2020 | $12,893 | $16,184 | $14,579 | $13,614 |
| 2021 | $13,689 | $17,576 | $15,200 | $14,695 |
| 2022 | $14,011 | $19,395 | $15,207 | $14,649 |
| 2023 | $14,764 | $19,738 | $15,544 | $16,720 |
| 2024 | $15,612 | $20,452 | $15,753 | $16,982 |
| 2025 | $16,867 | $21,143 | $15,988 | $17,228 |
What each province raises per resident
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
2007 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, provincial and territorial economic accounts, annual · Statistics Canada — Population estimates on July 1, by age and gender, annual
View the data table for What each province raises per resident (19 periods × 4 series)
| Period | Ontario | Quebec | Alberta | British Columbia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | $8,509 | $11,170 | $11,485 | $8,920 |
| 2008 | $8,568 | $11,258 | $12,830 | $9,192 |
| 2009 | $8,527 | $11,341 | $10,287 | $8,635 |
| 2010 | $9,122 | $11,671 | $10,981 | $9,391 |
| 2011 | $9,027 | $12,221 | $11,676 | $9,388 |
| 2012 | $9,365 | $12,531 | $11,510 | $9,680 |
| 2013 | $9,551 | $13,052 | $12,101 | $9,839 |
| 2014 | $9,887 | $13,562 | $12,896 | $10,365 |
| 2015 | $10,500 | $13,960 | $10,950 | $10,605 |
| 2016 | $10,939 | $14,308 | $10,329 | $11,242 |
| 2017 | $11,364 | $14,873 | $11,214 | $11,591 |
| 2018 | $11,648 | $15,802 | $11,576 | $11,977 |
| 2019 | $11,596 | $16,430 | $11,893 | $12,490 |
| 2020 | $11,758 | $16,747 | $11,154 | $12,188 |
| 2021 | $12,930 | $18,143 | $13,705 | $14,157 |
| 2022 | $13,685 | $18,943 | $17,644 | $15,353 |
| 2023 | $13,909 | $19,050 | $16,556 | $15,110 |
| 2024 | $14,614 | $19,903 | $17,390 | $15,471 |
| 2025 | $15,047 | $20,789 | $16,659 | $15,855 |
Provincial spending as a share of the province’s own economy
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
2007 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, provincial and territorial economic accounts, annual · Statistics Canada — Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual
View the data table for Provincial spending as a share of the province’s own economy (19 periods × 4 series)
| Period | Ontario | Quebec | Alberta | British Columbia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 18.0% | 27.8% | 13.7% | 19.2% |
| 2008 | 18.9% | 28.0% | 13.5% | 20.1% |
| 2009 | 20.9% | 29.2% | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| 2010 | 22.6% | 28.5% | 16.1% | 21.2% |
| 2011 | 21.0% | 28.6% | 15.1% | 21.0% |
| 2012 | 20.6% | 28.8% | 14.9% | 21.8% |
| 2013 | 20.7% | 29.2% | 14.0% | 21.0% |
| 2014 | 20.0% | 29.1% | 13.7% | 20.2% |
| 2015 | 19.9% | 28.6% | 16.5% | 20.2% |
| 2016 | 19.5% | 28.4% | 18.7% | 19.9% |
| 2017 | 19.4% | 28.2% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| 2018 | 20.3% | 28.2% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| 2019 | 19.9% | 28.3% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| 2020 | 21.8% | 30.7% | 21.3% | 22.9% |
| 2021 | 20.9% | 29.7% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| 2022 | 19.9% | 30.2% | 14.6% | 19.6% |
| 2023 | 20.3% | 30.0% | 16.1% | 22.3% |
| 2024 | 20.9% | 29.9% | 16.3% | 22.4% |
| 2025 | 21.7% | 29.6% | 16.7% | 21.9% |
Provincial revenue as a share of the province’s own economy
Scroll across for the full chart; newest dates are on the right. Full values are also in the data table below.
2007 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, provincial and territorial economic accounts, annual · Statistics Canada — Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual
View the data table for Provincial revenue as a share of the province’s own economy (19 periods × 4 series)
| Period | Ontario | Quebec | Alberta | British Columbia |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 18.0% | 28.0% | 15.5% | 19.1% |
| 2008 | 18.1% | 27.7% | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| 2009 | 18.5% | 28.2% | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| 2010 | 19.0% | 28.1% | 15.2% | 20.3% |
| 2011 | 18.1% | 28.3% | 14.8% | 19.3% |
| 2012 | 18.4% | 28.4% | 14.3% | 19.8% |
| 2013 | 18.5% | 28.9% | 14.1% | 19.7% |
| 2014 | 18.5% | 29.3% | 14.0% | 20.0% |
| 2015 | 18.9% | 29.4% | 14.0% | 20.2% |
| 2016 | 19.2% | 29.5% | 14.2% | 20.7% |
| 2017 | 19.4% | 29.5% | 14.3% | 20.3% |
| 2018 | 19.4% | 30.1% | 14.4% | 20.2% |
| 2019 | 18.9% | 30.3% | 14.7% | 20.7% |
| 2020 | 19.9% | 31.7% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| 2021 | 19.8% | 30.6% | 16.0% | 20.7% |
| 2022 | 19.5% | 29.5% | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| 2023 | 19.1% | 28.9% | 17.1% | 20.1% |
| 2024 | 19.6% | 29.1% | 18.0% | 20.4% |
| 2025 | 19.4% | 29.1% | 17.4% | 20.2% |
What the record says about this domain
Findings
Quebec's calendar-year statistical balance was -0.49% of GDP in 2025; no target-pace verdict is inferred
The provincial general government balance (National Accounts) was -0.49% of provincial nominal GDP in 2025, compared with -0.80% the year before. The statistical comparison shows improvement. This calendar-year measure does not match the fiscal-year Public Accounts commitment. It establishes neither progress against that commitment nor legal compliance. The original promise and current budget forecast are stated separately.
Explanation corrected October 27, 2026 →
Technical details
Registered commitments
Return to a balanced budget by fiscal year 2027-28
Issuer: Government of Ontario (Ministry of Finance). Stated in 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review (Fall Economic Statement).
Latest observed: -2.34 % of nominal GDP (National Accounts basis, calendar year) (2025).
Statistical context only; legal compliance has not been assessed.
Explanation corrected October 27, 2026 →
Original stated target: 0 (CAD billions, budgetary balance (Public Accounts basis, fiscal year)). Checkpoint: 2028-03-31. This is stated separately from the statistical observation.
Original November 2025 promise: balance in 2027-28. Ontario Budget 2026 projects balance in 2028-29; the August first-quarter update refreshes 2026-27 only. This card preserves the earlier promise for accountability, not as the newest forecast.
Forecast source: Ontario Budget 2026, chapter 3, published 2026-03-26. Fiscal-year Public Accounts budgetary balance; original commitment retained separately.
Forecast source: 2026–27 First Quarter Finances, published 2026-08-14. Fiscal-year Public Accounts budgetary balance; original commitment retained separately.
Measurement status: The calendar-year National Accounts balance is statistical context. It does not match this fiscal-year Public Accounts commitment, so no target-pace or compliance verdict is inferred. The original promise is retained beside the separately dated current budget forecast.
Return to budgetary balance, after deposits to the Generations Fund, no later than fiscal year 2029-2030, per the Balanced Budget Act (Loi sur l'équilibre budgétaire)
Issuer: Government of Quebec (Ministère des Finances). Stated in Budget 2025-2026 (Plan budgétaire), "Un Québec fort".
Latest observed: -0.49 % of nominal GDP (National Accounts basis, calendar year) (2025).
Statistical context only; legal compliance has not been assessed.
Explanation corrected October 27, 2026 →
Original stated target: 0 (CAD billions, budgetary balance after Generations Fund deposits (Public Accounts basis, fiscal year)). Checkpoint: 2030-03-31. This is stated separately from the statistical observation.
The March 2026 budget retains a conditional return to Balanced Budget Act balance in 2029-30, including measures still to be identified. The accounting balance and post-Generations-Fund balance are separate quantities.
Forecast source: Budget 2026–2027, Budget Plan, published 2026-03-18. Fiscal-year Public Accounts; Quebec separately shows accounting balance and post-Generations-Fund Balanced Budget Act balance.
Measurement status: The calendar-year National Accounts balance is statistical context. It does not match this fiscal-year Public Accounts commitment, so no target-pace or compliance verdict is inferred. The original promise is retained beside the separately dated current budget forecast.
Table and maintain a balanced budget each fiscal year, per the Sustainable Fiscal Planning and Reporting Act
Issuer: Government of Alberta (Treasury Board and Finance). Stated in Sustainable Fiscal Planning and Reporting Act; Budget 2025 ("Meeting the Challenge"), 2025-28 Fiscal Plan.
Latest observed: 0.7 % of nominal GDP (StatsCan Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts basis, calendar year) (2025).
Statistical context only; legal compliance has not been assessed.
Explanation corrected October 27, 2026 →
Original stated target: 0 (CAD billions, budgetary balance (Public Accounts basis, fiscal year)). Checkpoint: 2027-03-31. This is stated separately from the statistical observation.
Earlier checkpoint note
2026-08-18: As recorded at that date, the standing target’s checkpoint moved from the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026 to the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027. No audited settlement for the closed fiscal year was then held in this record, and the roll-forward asserted no outcome for that year. This is the earlier checkpoint note, not a new assessment of the accounts.
Measurement status: The retained Statistics Canada balance is a calendar-year National Accounts measure. It is a proxy for fiscal context, not a matched test of Alberta’s fiscal-year accounts against the applicable law and exceptions. No legal-compliance verdict is published. The earlier full-indicator classification was corrected October 27, 2026.
Institutional benchmarks
Fiscal Sustainability Report 2024 — provincial-territorial assessment
PBO's independent long-term fiscal sustainability assessment for each provincial-territorial government: whether current fiscal policy, held constant, keeps the government's net-debt-to-GDP ratio from rising indefinitely; a 'sustainable' jurisdiction has fiscal room (could spend more or tax less and remain sustainable), an 'unsustainable' jurisdiction has a fiscal gap (needs a policy correction of the stated magnitude to remain sustainable).
Measure: pct of gdp.
Evidence gaps
Does any single official series reproduce a province's own stated budgetary balance, on its own fiscal-year and Public Accounts accounting basis, in a form that is comparable across all ten provinces?
What is missing: Every province publishes its own budgetary balance on a fiscal-year (April-March) Public Accounts basis, each with its own accounting conventions (e.g. Quebec's Generations Fund treatment, Alberta's resource-revenue smoothing). StatsCan's Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts (36-10-0450) provide a consistent, cross-province-comparable series, but on a calendar-year, National Accounts basis that does not reproduce any province's own fiscal-year bottom line — the same fiscal-year/Public-Accounts vs calendar-year/National-Accounts mismatch already documented for the federal government, on both its debt vintage and its own day-to-day operating-balance measurement (each already a published evidence gap in its own right), now confirmed to generalize across jurisdictions.
Consequence: The comparable calendar-year National Accounts balances remain statistical context only. They do not match the provincial fiscal-year Public Accounts commitments, so no target-pace or compliance verdict is inferred. Original promises and separately sourced budget forecasts retain their own dates and definitions.
October 27, 2026: the earlier pace interpretation is withdrawn; original gap wording remains historical.
Earlier wording
Wording replaced on 27 October 2026.
What was missing: Every province publishes its own budgetary balance on a fiscal-year (April-March) Public Accounts basis, each with its own accounting conventions (e.g. Quebec's Generations Fund treatment, Alberta's resource-revenue smoothing). StatsCan's Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts (36-10-0450) provide a consistent, cross-province-comparable series, but on a calendar-year, National Accounts basis that does not reproduce any province's own fiscal-year bottom line — the same fiscal-year/Public-Accounts vs calendar-year/National-Accounts mismatch already documented for the federal government, on both its debt vintage and its own day-to-day operating-balance measurement (each already a published evidence gap in its own right), now confirmed to generalize across jurisdictions.
Consequence: Countability's provincial fiscal targets (Ontario, Quebec, Alberta) are measured on the StatsCan basis, consistently and named in every claim, rather than each province's own reported figures — pace verdicts describe direction of travel on a comparable basis, not literal agreement with a province's own budget documents in a given year.
What would close it: A StatsCan or Finance Canada cross-provincial series expressed on each jurisdiction's own fiscal-year Public Accounts basis, or an official concordance table mapping each province's Public Accounts balance to the Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts basis.
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