Resolution
Canada Energy RegulatorclimateAwaiting settlementCurrent
The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation and capacity to 2035 and 2050, held beside the dataset's own recorded history
Canada's electricity generation (gigawatt hours) and installed generating capacity (megawatts), as the Canada Energy Regulator's 'Canada's Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050' dataset states them -- the recorded history the dataset itself carries (2005 through 2023, identical across scenarios at 2023) and the four scenarios' modelled levels at 2035 and 2050. The issuer's own scenario definitions name Canadian GDP growth, LNG exports, data centre load growth, and global oil and natural gas prices as the drivers its Higher and Lower scenarios bracket.
On this page
A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →
Awaiting settlement. This record contains forward-looking positions. No audited or final outcome has yet settled the projections; any interim estimate is identified below. Conditional scenarios describe pathways under stated assumptions and are not predictions.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2005 (recorded history) | 594,750.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 621,540.0 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2025, Current Measures scenario (modelled year) | 651,483.6 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario | 800,194.9 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario | 871,670.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario | 860,382.8 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario | 756,146.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2050, Current Measures scenario | 974,993.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2050, Canada Net-zero scenario | 1,323,010.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2010 (recorded history) | 567,389.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2022 (recorded history) | 647,380.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2005 (recorded history) | 121,968.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2011 (recorded history) | 122,968.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 159,363.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario | 225,810.4 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario | 252,433.3 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario | 244,754.9 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario | 217,421.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) | 41,703.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Newfoundland and Labrador: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 44,292.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 99,958.1 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 108,769.6 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) | 7,720.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) | 7,389.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Newfoundland and Labrador: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 8,783.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 22,785.6 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 24,396.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 462.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 534.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Prince Edward Island: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 557.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Prince Edward Island: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 1,055.5 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Prince Edward Island: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 1,595.9 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 175.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2017 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 350.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Prince Edward Island: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 351.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Prince Edward Island: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 640.2 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Prince Edward Island: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 843.7 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) | 11,731.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Nova Scotia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 9,058.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Nova Scotia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 17,339.5 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Nova Scotia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 29,213.5 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) | 2,381.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) | 2,368.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Nova Scotia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 3,111.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Nova Scotia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 7,245.2 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Nova Scotia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 11,896.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 11,804.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (New Brunswick: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 13,895.8 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (New Brunswick: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 13,046.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (New Brunswick: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 13,717.4 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 4,234.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 3,745.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 4,535.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (New Brunswick: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 4,509.4 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario (New Brunswick: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 4,740.6 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (New Brunswick: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 5,278.7 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Quebec: recorded history) | 180,609.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Quebec: recorded history) | 215,544.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Quebec: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 195,507.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Quebec: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 214,279.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Quebec: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 237,212.4 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Quebec: recorded history) | 39,258.7 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2017 (Quebec: recorded history) | 45,369.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Quebec: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 46,900.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Quebec: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 53,707.1 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Quebec: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 57,723.2 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) | 135,412.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) | 157,953.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Ontario: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 158,135.3 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Ontario: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 156,081.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Ontario: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 201,723.9 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Ontario: recorded history) | 31,454.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) | 28,475.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) | 44,183.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Ontario: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 43,355.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario (Ontario: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 48,357.1 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Ontario: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 54,977.3 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 33,713.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 37,854.2 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Manitoba: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 33,373.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Manitoba: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 29,552.1 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Manitoba: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 36,398.8 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 5,593.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 5,583.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 6,741.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Manitoba: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 6,554.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Manitoba: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 6,919.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Manitoba: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 8,500.5 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 20,407.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 24,516.0 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Saskatchewan: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 24,900.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Saskatchewan: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 23,673.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Saskatchewan: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 29,493.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 3,733.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 4,186.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 5,628.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Saskatchewan: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 5,275.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Saskatchewan: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 6,691.7 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Saskatchewan: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 9,997.4 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) | 72,813.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 84,133.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Alberta: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 96,288.6 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Alberta: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 116,135.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Alberta: recorded history) | 11,998.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) | 13,019.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 21,006.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Alberta: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 33,459.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Alberta: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 45,201.3 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 60,281.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 70,681.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 56,165.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (British Columbia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 97,905.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (British Columbia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 114,114.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 15,047.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 15,123.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 18,985.8 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (British Columbia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 31,593.0 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (British Columbia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 39,903.5 MW | scenario | — | — |
Comparisons
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
| Comparison | Compared periods and editions | Difference (stated convention) | Basis and convention |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2025 (the scenario's own near-term path) | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. 2025, Current Measures scenario (modelled year) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (scenario 651,483.6 GWh) | +29,943.6 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: the Current Measures scenario's modelled 2025 level minus the dataset's own recorded 2023 level, in gigawatt hours -- what the scenario's own near-term path assumes has already happened by 2025. Computed entirely within this dataset's basis; the measured record's own 2023-to-2025 change is carried separately, on its own basis, in the separate measured electricity record. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. 2035, Current Measures scenario · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (scenario 800,194.9 GWh) | +178,654.9 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 national generation level minus the dataset's own recorded 2023 level, in gigawatt hours. Positive means the scenario's level is higher than recorded 2023. Both figures come from the same file, same summation, same unit. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario · edition: EF2026 / Canada Net-zero (scenario 871,670.3 GWh) | +250,130.3 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in gigawatt hours, same file and summation. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. 2035, Higher scenario · edition: EF2026 / Higher Scenario (scenario 860,382.8 GWh) | +238,842.8 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in gigawatt hours, same file and summation. |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. 2035, Lower scenario · edition: EF2026 / Lower Scenario (scenario 756,146.3 GWh) | +134,606.3 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in gigawatt hours, same file and summation. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. 2035, Current Measures scenario · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (scenario 225,810.4 MW) | +66,447.3 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 national installed-capacity level minus the dataset's own recorded 2023 level, in megawatts. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario · edition: EF2026 / Canada Net-zero (scenario 252,433.3 MW) | +93,070.2 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in megawatts. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. 2035, Higher scenario · edition: EF2026 / Higher Scenario (scenario 244,754.9 MW) | +85,391.8 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in megawatts. |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035 | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. 2035, Lower scenario · edition: EF2026 / Lower Scenario (scenario 217,421.8 MW) | +58,058.7 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: the scenario's 2035 level minus recorded 2023, in megawatts. |
| Generation, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 567,389.1 GWh) vs. 2022 (recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 647,380.7 GWh) | +79,991.6 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded history (correction, 2026-07-17). Computed by checking all seven non-overlapping-start twelve-year windows the nineteen-year record admits (2005-2017 through 2011-2023) and taking the one with the largest average annual pace; every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the recorded history contains -- the denominator the corrected public claim compares each scenario against, in place of an unqualified 'no precedent' statement. |
| Capacity, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 122,968.3 MW) vs. 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) | +36,394.8 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded history (correction, 2026-07-17), by the identical seven-window method as the fastest recorded twelve-year generation comparison (2010 to 2022). Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average capacity pace the recorded history contains. |
| Generation, Newfoundland and Labrador: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 41,703.5 GWh) vs. 2023 (Newfoundland and Labrador: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 44,292.7 GWh) | +2,589.2 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Newfoundland and Labrador; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Newfoundland and Labrador: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 7,389.0 MW) vs. 2023 (Newfoundland and Labrador: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 8,783.3 MW) | +1,394.3 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Newfoundland and Labrador (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Prince Edward Island: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 462.6 GWh) vs. 2022 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 534.6 GWh) | +72.0 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Prince Edward Island; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Prince Edward Island: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2005 to 2017) | 2005 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 175.6 MW) vs. 2017 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 350.0 MW) | +174.4 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2017 minus 2005, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Prince Edward Island (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Nova Scotia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 11,731.6 GWh) vs. 2023 (Nova Scotia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 9,058.5 GWh) | -2,673.1 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Nova Scotia; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. Both candidate windows are negative: the province's block-invariant recorded generation declined across every twelve-year stretch it admits; the pinned window is the smaller decline, and no positive delivered pace exists on this basis. |
| Capacity, Nova Scotia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 2,368.1 MW) vs. 2023 (Nova Scotia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 3,111.6 MW) | +743.5 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Nova Scotia (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, New Brunswick: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (New Brunswick: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 11,804.4 GWh) vs. 2023 (New Brunswick: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 13,895.8 GWh) | +2,091.4 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for New Brunswick; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, New Brunswick: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (New Brunswick: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 3,745.3 MW) vs. 2022 (New Brunswick: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 4,535.3 MW) | +790.0 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for New Brunswick (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Quebec: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Quebec: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 180,609.9 GWh) vs. 2022 (Quebec: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 215,544.1 GWh) | +34,934.2 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Quebec; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Quebec: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2005 to 2017) | 2005 (Quebec: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 39,258.7 MW) vs. 2017 (Quebec: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 45,369.0 MW) | +6,110.3 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2017 minus 2005, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Quebec (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Ontario: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 135,412.9 GWh) vs. 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 157,953.7 GWh) | +22,540.8 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Ontario; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Ontario: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 28,475.0 MW) vs. 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 44,183.9 MW) | +15,708.9 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Ontario (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Manitoba: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Manitoba: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 33,713.4 GWh) vs. 2022 (Manitoba: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 37,854.2 GWh) | +4,140.8 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Manitoba; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Manitoba: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Manitoba: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 5,583.0 MW) vs. 2022 (Manitoba: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 6,741.0 MW) | +1,158.0 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Manitoba (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Saskatchewan: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 20,407.4 GWh) vs. 2022 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 24,516.0 GWh) | +4,108.6 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Saskatchewan; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Saskatchewan: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 4,186.0 MW) vs. 2022 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 5,628.5 MW) | +1,442.5 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Saskatchewan (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, Alberta: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 72,813.6 GWh) vs. 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 84,133.9 GWh) | +11,320.3 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for Alberta; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, Alberta: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 13,019.9 MW) vs. 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 21,006.3 MW) | +7,986.4 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for Alberta (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
| Generation, British Columbia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | 2010 (British Columbia: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 60,281.4 GWh) vs. 2022 (British Columbia: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 70,681.6 GWh) | +10,400.2 GWh | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2022 minus 2010, in gigawatt hours -- the larger change of the two twelve-year windows the block-invariant provincial generation history (2010-2023) admits for British Columbia; both windows are independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. Divided by twelve, this is the fastest sustained twelve-year average pace the province's own block-invariant record contains -- the delivered side of this province's scenario rows, in place of a longer average the 2005-2009 block divergence would contaminate. |
| Capacity, British Columbia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | 2011 (British Columbia: recorded history) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 15,123.0 MW) vs. 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) · edition: EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 18,985.8 MW) | +3,862.8 MW | same issuer. Numeric difference: 2023 minus 2011, in megawatts -- the largest change of any twelve-year window inside the dataset's own 2005-2023 recorded capacity history for British Columbia (all seven non-overlapping-start windows checked; provincial capacity history is scenario-block-invariant from 2005). Every window is independently re-derived from the archived bytes by the published-record arithmetic checks. |
Evidence qualifications (8)
- Every scenario value in this entry is the issuer's modelled pathway under its own stated assumptions -- not a plan, not a commitment, not a forecast by Countability, and not a statement that any level will or will not be reached.
- This entry restates one issuer's dataset against itself: the projections and the recorded history come from the same files, the same regional total, and the same summation, so pace comparisons inside this entry involve no cross-issuer or cross-basis arithmetic.
- The dataset's recorded history and Statistics Canada's survey-based electricity tables measure closely related but not identical quantities: at 2023 the two state national generation about one per cent apart (621,540 GWh here; 615,332.8 GWh on Statistics Canada's own measured electricity record). Levels are therefore never compared across the two entries; each entry's changes are computed only within its own basis.
- 2024 and 2025 are modelled years in this dataset even though those calendar years had passed by publication -- the scenario blocks diverge from 2024 onward, which is the dataset's own marker of where history ends.
- Correction, 2026-07-17: the full-period 2005-2023 average (the projected-pace comparisons and the capacity equivalents' delivered basis) is one comparator among several a reader could choose; it does not by itself establish that no shorter historical interval ever matched or exceeded part of a scenario's required pace. Checked directly: some one-year and five-year windows within 2005-2023 do equal or exceed the lower or middle scenario range (e.g. generation's single largest year-over-year change, 2010 to 2011, exceeds even the Canada Net-zero scenario's required pace). No twelve-year window does -- the fastest-window comparisons on this entry pin the fastest such window for each measure, and every scenario's required pace exceeds it. The duration of the comparison window is therefore load-bearing and is always named alongside any precedent claim drawn from this entry.
- Provincial generation history in this file diverges across scenario blocks for 2005-2009: the Current Measures block's provincial rows differ from the other three blocks (which agree with one another exactly) in nine of ten provinces, by amounts that are material at provincial scale -- for the smallest system the divergent rows differ roughly tenfold. From 2010 every block agrees exactly. Provincial generation history is therefore pinned only from 2010, and no 2005-2009 provincial generation figure is pinned or published. The national generation totals carry the same 2005-2009 divergence: their cross-block spread is about 20 gigawatt hours at 2005 (0.003 per cent, the figure this entry states on its 2005 rows) but reaches about 21,900 gigawatt hours at 2008 (about 3.6 per cent), so the 2005 figure describes 2005 only and does not bound the other years. No national generation value pinned on this entry falls in 2006-2009 -- the pinned history years are 2005, 2010, 2022 and 2023 -- so no published national figure is drawn from a divergent year. Provincial capacity history carries no block divergence and is pinned from 2005.
- Provincial 2035 values are pinned for each province's lowest and highest of the four scenario levels -- the bracket the Brief's provincial rows read. The two intermediate scenario levels for every province lie between the pinned bracket ends and remain readable in the archived file; which scenarios form the bracket differs by province and is named on each pinned value.
- Provincial values are read against the same province's own record and its own scenario bracket only. They are pinned in the geography order Statistics Canada's electricity cubes use for the ten provinces, and no cross-province ranking, share, or composite is computed on this basis.
Latest source: The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation and capacity to 2035 and 2050, held beside the dataset's own recorded history · accessed 2026-07-17
Related on this site
- Big Question: Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? →
- Brief: Canada's electricity expansion: the projected pace and the delivered record →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for Canada's electricity expansion: the projected pace and the delivered record →
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