Resolution
Canada Energy RegulatorclimateAwaiting settlementCurrent
The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation and capacity to 2035 and 2050, held beside the dataset's own recorded history
Canada's electricity generation (gigawatt hours) and installed generating capacity (megawatts), as the Canada Energy Regulator's 'Canada's Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050' dataset states them -- the recorded history the dataset itself carries (2005 through 2023, identical across scenarios at 2023) and the four scenarios' modelled levels at 2035 and 2050. The issuer's own scenario definitions name Canadian GDP growth, LNG exports, data centre load growth, and global oil and natural gas prices as the drivers its Higher and Lower scenarios bracket.
A Resolution record holds one institution's own published figures for a single, specific quantity — a projection, an estimate, or a measured record — across every vintage in which that institution restated it. Each time an issuer publishes a new budget, report, or release, an earlier figure does not disappear from the record; it is preserved exactly as it was first published, dated and cited, alongside the newer one. What is a Resolution record? →
Awaiting settlement. This lineage carries forward-looking positions its issuer published — projections, or scenarios modelled under stated assumptions. No settled outcome, meaning an audited result or a final release, stands against them yet; where an interim estimate exists it is labelled as one, row by row. A scenario is a conditional pathway under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | Canada Energy Regulator | 2026-03-16 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2005 (recorded history) | 594,750.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 621,540.0 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2025, Current Measures scenario (modelled year) | 651,483.6 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario | 800,194.9 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario | 871,670.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario | 860,382.8 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario | 756,146.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2050, Current Measures scenario | 974,993.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2050, Canada Net-zero scenario | 1,323,010.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2010 (recorded history) | 567,389.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2022 (recorded history) | 647,380.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2005 (recorded history) | 121,968.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2011 (recorded history) | 122,968.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2023 (last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 159,363.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario | 225,810.4 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario | 252,433.3 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario | 244,754.9 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario | 217,421.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) | 41,703.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Newfoundland and Labrador: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 44,292.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 99,958.1 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 108,769.6 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) | 7,720.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (Newfoundland and Labrador: recorded history) | 7,389.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Newfoundland and Labrador: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 8,783.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 22,785.6 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Newfoundland and Labrador: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 24,396.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 462.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 534.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Prince Edward Island: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 557.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Prince Edward Island: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 1,055.5 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Prince Edward Island: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 1,595.9 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 175.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2017 (Prince Edward Island: recorded history) | 350.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Prince Edward Island: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 351.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Prince Edward Island: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 640.2 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Prince Edward Island: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 843.7 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) | 11,731.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Nova Scotia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 9,058.5 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Nova Scotia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 17,339.5 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Nova Scotia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 29,213.5 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) | 2,381.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (Nova Scotia: recorded history) | 2,368.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Nova Scotia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 3,111.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Nova Scotia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 7,245.2 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Nova Scotia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 11,896.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 11,804.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (New Brunswick: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 13,895.8 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (New Brunswick: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 13,046.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (New Brunswick: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 13,717.4 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 4,234.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 3,745.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (New Brunswick: recorded history) | 4,535.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (New Brunswick: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 4,509.4 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario (New Brunswick: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 4,740.6 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (New Brunswick: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 5,278.7 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Quebec: recorded history) | 180,609.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Quebec: recorded history) | 215,544.1 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Quebec: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 195,507.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Quebec: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 214,279.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Quebec: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 237,212.4 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Quebec: recorded history) | 39,258.7 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2017 (Quebec: recorded history) | 45,369.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Quebec: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 46,900.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Quebec: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 53,707.1 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (Quebec: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 57,723.2 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) | 135,412.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) | 157,953.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Ontario: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 158,135.3 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Ontario: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 156,081.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Ontario: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 201,723.9 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Ontario: recorded history) | 31,454.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (Ontario: recorded history) | 28,475.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (Ontario: recorded history) | 44,183.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Ontario: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 43,355.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Current Measures | 2035, Current Measures scenario (Ontario: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 48,357.1 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Ontario: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 54,977.3 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 33,713.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 37,854.2 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Manitoba: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 33,373.7 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Manitoba: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 29,552.1 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Manitoba: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 36,398.8 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 5,593.6 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 5,583.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (Manitoba: recorded history) | 6,741.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Manitoba: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 6,554.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Manitoba: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 6,919.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Manitoba: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 8,500.5 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 20,407.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 24,516.0 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Saskatchewan: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 24,900.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Saskatchewan: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 23,673.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Saskatchewan: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 29,493.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 3,733.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2010 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 4,186.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2022 (Saskatchewan: recorded history) | 5,628.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Saskatchewan: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 5,275.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Saskatchewan: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 6,691.7 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Saskatchewan: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 9,997.4 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) | 72,813.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 84,133.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Alberta: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 96,288.6 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Alberta: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 116,135.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (Alberta: recorded history) | 11,998.1 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (Alberta: recorded history) | 13,019.9 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (Alberta: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 21,006.3 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (Alberta: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 33,459.8 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (Alberta: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 45,201.3 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2010 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 60,281.4 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2022 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 70,681.6 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) | 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 56,165.9 GWh | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (British Columbia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 97,905.2 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Canada Net-zero | 2035, Canada Net-zero scenario (British Columbia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 114,114.3 GWh | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2005 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 15,047.5 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2011 (British Columbia: recorded history) | 15,123.0 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) | 2023 (British Columbia: last recorded history year; identical across all four scenarios) | 18,985.8 MW | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EF2026 / Lower Scenario | 2035, Lower scenario (British Columbia: the lowest of the four scenario levels) | 31,593.0 MW | scenario | — | — |
| EF2026 / Higher Scenario | 2035, Higher scenario (British Columbia: the highest of the four scenario levels) | 39,903.5 MW | scenario | — | — |
Movement between vintages
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2025 (the scenario's own near-term path) | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. EF2026 / Current Measures (scenario 651,483.6 GWh) | +29,943.6 GWh | same issuer |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. EF2026 / Current Measures (scenario 800,194.9 GWh) | +178,654.9 GWh | same issuer |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. EF2026 / Canada Net-zero (scenario 871,670.3 GWh) | +250,130.3 GWh | same issuer |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. EF2026 / Higher Scenario (scenario 860,382.8 GWh) | +238,842.8 GWh | same issuer |
| Generation, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 621,540.0 GWh) vs. EF2026 / Lower Scenario (scenario 756,146.3 GWh) | +134,606.3 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Current Measures 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. EF2026 / Current Measures (scenario 225,810.4 MW) | +66,447.3 MW | same issuer |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Canada Net-zero 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. EF2026 / Canada Net-zero (scenario 252,433.3 MW) | +93,070.2 MW | same issuer |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Higher scenario 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. EF2026 / Higher Scenario (scenario 244,754.9 MW) | +85,391.8 MW | same issuer |
| Capacity, recorded 2023 to Lower scenario 2035 | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) vs. EF2026 / Lower Scenario (scenario 217,421.8 MW) | +58,058.7 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 567,389.1 GWh) vs. EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 647,380.7 GWh) | +79,991.6 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, the fastest twelve-year stretch in the recorded history (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 122,968.3 MW) vs. EF2026 / Current Measures (institutional estimate 159,363.1 MW) | +36,394.8 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Newfoundland and Labrador: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 41,703.5 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 44,292.7 GWh) | +2,589.2 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Newfoundland and Labrador: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 7,389.0 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 8,783.3 MW) | +1,394.3 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Prince Edward Island: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 462.6 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 534.6 GWh) | +72.0 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Prince Edward Island: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2005 to 2017) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 175.6 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 350.0 MW) | +174.4 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Nova Scotia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 11,731.6 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 9,058.5 GWh) | -2,673.1 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Nova Scotia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 2,368.1 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 3,111.6 MW) | +743.5 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, New Brunswick: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 11,804.4 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 13,895.8 GWh) | +2,091.4 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, New Brunswick: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 3,745.3 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 4,535.3 MW) | +790.0 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Quebec: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 180,609.9 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 215,544.1 GWh) | +34,934.2 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Quebec: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2005 to 2017) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 39,258.7 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 45,369.0 MW) | +6,110.3 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Ontario: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 135,412.9 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 157,953.7 GWh) | +22,540.8 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Ontario: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 28,475.0 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 44,183.9 MW) | +15,708.9 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Manitoba: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 33,713.4 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 37,854.2 GWh) | +4,140.8 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Manitoba: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 5,583.0 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 6,741.0 MW) | +1,158.0 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Saskatchewan: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 20,407.4 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 24,516.0 GWh) | +4,108.6 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Saskatchewan: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 4,186.0 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 5,628.5 MW) | +1,442.5 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, Alberta: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 72,813.6 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 84,133.9 GWh) | +11,320.3 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, Alberta: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 13,019.9 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 21,006.3 MW) | +7,986.4 MW | same issuer |
| Generation, British Columbia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2010 to 2022) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 60,281.4 GWh) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2010) (institutional estimate 70,681.6 GWh) | +10,400.2 GWh | same issuer |
| Capacity, British Columbia: the fastest twelve-year stretch in its own record (2011 to 2023) | EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 15,123.0 MW) vs. EF2026 / recorded history (block-invariant from 2005) (institutional estimate 18,985.8 MW) | +3,862.8 MW | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (8)
- Every scenario value in this entry is the issuer's modelled pathway under its own stated assumptions -- not a plan, not a commitment, not a forecast by Countability, and not a statement that any level will or will not be reached.
- This entry restates one issuer's dataset against itself: the projections and the recorded history come from the same files, the same regional total, and the same summation, so pace comparisons inside this entry involve no cross-issuer or cross-basis arithmetic.
- The dataset's recorded history and Statistics Canada's survey-based electricity tables measure closely related but not identical quantities: at 2023 the two state national generation about one per cent apart (621,540 GWh here; 615,332.8 GWh on Statistics Canada's own measured electricity record). Levels are therefore never compared across the two entries; each entry's changes are computed only within its own basis.
- 2024 and 2025 are modelled years in this dataset even though those calendar years had passed by publication -- the scenario blocks diverge from 2024 onward, which is the dataset's own marker of where history ends.
- Correction, 2026-07-17: the full-period 2005-2023 average (the projected-pace comparisons and the capacity equivalents' delivered basis) is one comparator among several a reader could choose; it does not by itself establish that no shorter historical interval ever matched or exceeded part of a scenario's required pace. Checked directly: some one-year and five-year windows within 2005-2023 do equal or exceed the lower or middle scenario range (e.g. generation's single largest year-over-year change, 2010 to 2011, exceeds even the Canada Net-zero scenario's required pace). No twelve-year window does -- the fastest-window comparisons on this entry pin the fastest such window for each measure, and every scenario's required pace exceeds it. The duration of the comparison window is therefore load-bearing and is always named alongside any precedent claim drawn from this entry.
- Provincial generation history in this file diverges across scenario blocks for 2005-2009: the Current Measures block's provincial rows differ from the other three blocks (which agree with one another exactly) in nine of ten provinces, by amounts that are material at provincial scale -- for the smallest system the divergent rows differ roughly tenfold. From 2010 every block agrees exactly. Provincial generation history is therefore pinned only from 2010, and no 2005-2009 provincial generation figure is pinned or published. The national generation totals carry the same 2005-2009 divergence: their cross-block spread is about 20 gigawatt hours at 2005 (0.003 per cent, the figure this entry states on its 2005 rows) but reaches about 21,900 gigawatt hours at 2008 (about 3.6 per cent), so the 2005 figure describes 2005 only and does not bound the other years. No national generation value pinned on this entry falls in 2006-2009 -- the pinned history years are 2005, 2010, 2022 and 2023 -- so no published national figure is drawn from a divergent year. Provincial capacity history carries no block divergence and is pinned from 2005.
- Provincial 2035 values are pinned for each province's lowest and highest of the four scenario levels -- the bracket the Brief's provincial rows read. The two intermediate scenario levels for every province lie between the pinned bracket ends and remain readable in the archived file; which scenarios form the bracket differs by province and is named on each pinned value.
- Provincial values are read against the same province's own record and its own scenario bracket only. They are pinned in the geography order Statistics Canada's electricity cubes use for the ten provinces, and no cross-province ranking, share, or composite is computed on this basis.
Latest source: The Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Future 2026 electricity projections: what every scenario assumes about generation and capacity to 2035 and 2050, held beside the dataset's own recorded history · accessed 2026-07-17
Related on this site
- Big Question: Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? →
- Brief: Canada's electricity expansion: the projected pace and the delivered record →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for Canada's electricity expansion: the projected pace and the delivered record →
- Domain: Climate →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability