The 2026 United States Section 338 tariff escalation on Canadian goods: the operative rate, predicates, and dates, from the primary documents
Three presidential proclamations under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, signed 2026-07-20, each imposing an additional 50 percent ad valorem duty on certain products of Canada set forth in that proclamation's own Annex II, on a discrimination predicate specific to each proclamation (alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles respectively), the section 232 and WTO civil-aircraft exclusions each proclamation states, each proclamation's own Annex I -- named once, in each proclamation's own additivity clause, as a possible exception to the rule that these duties stack with other duties, its contents not in the transcribed prose -- the scheduled-to-actual effective-date divergence a fourth proclamation created, and the Government of Canada's own 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-22 statements of retaliatory intent. This entry follows this record's earlier Resolution on the 2025 United States tariff actions on Canadian goods, and does not edit or supersede it Extended 2026-08-25 with the Department of Finance Canada's own concretization of Canada's retaliatory intent: the counter-tariff rate schedule (15, 25, and 50 percent, which the government states matches the corresponding U.S. rate for each product), its own $27.6 billion scope figure -- the release's own precise restatement of the earlier 'roughly $28 billion' figure, and, by the same announcement's dollar-for-dollar design, the matching value of the U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs will apply to -- an effective date of 2026-09-08, and a $7.5 billion support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses, on top of the government's own stated nearly $25 billion in supports over the prior 18 months.
A Resolution record holds one institution's own published figures for a single, specific quantity — a projection, an estimate, or a measured record — across every vintage in which that institution restated it. Each time an issuer publishes a new budget, report, or release, an earlier figure does not disappear from the record; it is preserved exactly as it was first published, dated and cited, alongside the newer one. What is a Resolution record? →
Maintained record. This lineage preserves an official record version by version — observations, estimates, or benchmarks its issuer restated over time. It projects nothing, so no settlement is pending; where a figure can still be revised, the page says so. How the numbers moved between versions is the evidence this lineage exists to keep.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-07-23 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| 91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-07-23 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-07-23 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| 91 FR 54789 (document number 2026-17294) | President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) | 2026-08-24 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 | Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister) | 2026-08-21 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| pm.gc.ca remarks, dated 2026-08-22 | Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister) | 2026-08-22 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25, list effective 2026-09-08 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-08-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-25 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11046's own Annex II (the alcoholic-beverage discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 11056 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992) | Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11047's own Annex II (the dairy discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 11056 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | Additional duty on certain Canadian products under the motor-vehicles proclamation (Proclamation 11048, Annex II), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 11056 | 50.0 % ad valorem (additional duty) | benchmark | — | — |
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2024 through February 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11046 itself uses) | 718.0 US$ million | institutional estimate | — | — |
| 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) | Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2025 through February 2026 (Proclamation 11046's own comparison window) | 137.0 US$ million | institutional estimate | — | — |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2024 through March 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11048 itself uses) | 25.9 US$ billion | institutional estimate | — | — |
| 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) | Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2025 through March 2026 (Proclamation 11048's own comparison window) | 20.3 US$ billion | institutional estimate | — | — |
| pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 | Value of Canadian goods the Prime Minister's statement (2026-08-21) states the U.S. tariff was about to apply to, and which Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation is scoped against | 28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis) | institutional estimate | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | The lowest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08, each product's rate matching the corresponding U.S. rate for that product | 15.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff) | benchmark | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | The middle of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- also the rate several existing Canadian counter-tariffs (including on U.S. autos) already carried before this schedule and continue to carry | 25.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff) | benchmark | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | The highest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- matching the 50 percent U.S. rate pinned elsewhere in this entry | 50.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff) | benchmark | — | — |
| canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 | Value of U.S. imports into Canada that the Department of Finance Canada's own 2026-08-25 news release states Canada's counter-tariffs apply to | 27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis) | institutional estimate | — | — |
| canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25 | The new and enhanced support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses the Government of Canada announced 2026-08-25 | 7.5 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in either document; see basis) | institutional estimate | — | — |
| canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25 | The government's own approximate cumulative figure for tariff-related support it states it provided in the 18 months before 2026-08-25 (the base the new $7.5 billion package is stated to build on) | 25.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated; the source's own word 'nearly' -- an approximate, not an exact, figure) | institutional estimate | — | — |
Movement between vintages
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages: the March 2024-February 2025 window against the March 2025-February 2026 window -- two periods inside one document (Proclamation 11046), not two vintages of a restated figure | 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) (institutional estimate 718.0 US$ million) vs. 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) (institutional estimate 137.0 US$ million) | -581.0 US$ million | same issuer |
| Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada: the April 2024-March 2025 window against the April 2025-March 2026 window -- two periods inside one document (Proclamation 11048), not two vintages of a restated figure | 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) (institutional estimate 25.9 US$ billion) vs. 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) (institutional estimate 20.3 US$ billion) | -5.6 US$ billion | same issuer |
| The Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure against the Department of Finance's 2026-08-25 '$27.6 billion' counter-tariff scope figure -- the release's own lede restates the Prime Minister's figure precisely as $27.6 billion of Canadian goods, and states Canada's own counter-tariffs are matched to it dollar for dollar | pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 (institutional estimate 28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)) vs. canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 (institutional estimate 27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)) | not comparable — The Department of Finance's 2026-08-25 news release states, in its own lede, that the U.S. tariff applies to $27.6 billion of Canadian goods -- the release's own precise figure for the same population the Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure named. The $27.6 billion counter-tariff scope figure compared here is a second figure from the same release: $27.6 billion of U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs apply to, which the release states is matched to the U.S. figure dollar for dollar by the government's own design. This record does not compute a numeric difference between the Prime Minister's figure and either $27.6 billion reading, because the Prime Minister's figure is an approximate, separately sourced statement from a different sub-issuer (Office of the Prime Minister vs. Department of Finance Canada) three days earlier -- not because the figures describe unrelated populations. | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (9)
- This Resolution states what the six named documents say -- rates, predicates, exclusions, and dates -- and nothing about the resulting duty actually paid on any shipment, the total value of Canadian trade affected, or the tariff status of any specific product today. No official U.S. or Canadian source publishes a continuously updated statement of the tariff status of Canadian exports, the published evidence gap this entry links.
- None of Proclamations 11046, 11047, or 11048 states a total dollar value for the goods newly subject to these duties. Each proclamation's own dollar figures describe a separate quantity, pinned above: the decline in Canadian imports of the named U.S. product category (alcoholic beverages, motor vehicles), used as that proclamation's own discrimination predicate -- not the scope of the new tariff. The one scope figure pinned in this entry, 'roughly $28 billion of Canadian goods', is the Government of Canada's own statement (Prime Minister Carney, 2026-08-21), not a U.S. document, and its currency is not explicitly designated in the statement itself (see the value's own basis for how this record units it against the U.S. figures). No United States document captured here states a total dollar value for the goods newly subject to these duties, and no primary source this record captures states any other dollar scope figure; this Resolution does not state or repeat a figure it has not captured, and does not assert that the Government of Canada's own figure and any other reported figure describe the same population of goods.
- Each proclamation's operative text names an Annex I exactly once, in the sentence immediately after the sentence imposing the duty: 'Except as otherwise provided in this proclamation and in Annex I to this proclamation, the duties imposed in this proclamation are in addition to any other duties, taxes, fees, exactions, and charges applicable to such products.' That sentence makes Annex I a possible exception to the rule that these duties stack with other duties, taxes, fees, exactions, and charges -- nothing in the captured text states Annex I's subject matter, states what it contains, or identifies it among the capture's own unlabelled graphics. This record has not read Annex I and does not establish where or whether it appears within the capture at all. Every 'no exemption' statement in this entry, and on any public surface that cites it, states what the transcribed operative prose says -- no exemption for USMCA-qualifying goods appears in it -- and does not assert that no exemption exists anywhere in Annex I.
- The motor-vehicles proclamation's Annex II product list (the specific tariff lines it covers) is tabular/image content within the captured XML that this record does not transcribe. Its existence, and the proclamation's section-232 and WTO civil-aircraft exclusions, are pinned; the annex's specific line-by-line contents are not, and no claim here characterizes their breadth -- including any comparison of this regime's scope against any earlier one -- beyond what the proclamation's own prose states.
- This Resolution attributes no specific movement in Canada's export or import record to any specific action, forecasts no figure, and characterizes why the two governments' trade negotiations were suspended only by quoting the Prime Minister's own statements.
- Proclamation 11056 delays the effective date of Proclamations 11046, 11047, and 11048 from 2026-08-19 to 2026-08-22; it states no further suspension or resumption schedule beyond that single delayed date. Nothing in the four U.S. documents captured here addresses events after 2026-08-24 (this record's capture date), including any later modification, suspension, exemption, or Canadian retaliatory measure.
- Canada's own announced 'dollar for dollar' retaliatory tariffs are not detailed in the Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 statement: no product list, no effective date, and no rate is stated in that document. A second Canadian primary source captured for this repair pass, the Prime Minister's 2026-08-22 remarks, states the timing in its own words -- 'the Tuesday after Labour Day' -- and names affected sectors as 'such as steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics' -- an open list, not a closed one -- but states no numeral date and no rate. This Resolution states that phrase only as the source's own words and does not convert it into a calendar date anywhere: the rule fixing Labour Day's own date in Canada is a further source this record has not captured, so no numeral date for Canada's retaliatory measures is pinned in this record. No total dollar value for Canada's own retaliatory tariffs is stated in either Canadian primary source captured here, and none is pinned. **Update, 2026-08-25 (see the next caveat for the full concretization):** the product list, effective date, and rate structure described as undetailed above were published by the Department of Finance Canada on 2026-08-25. This caveat is preserved as an accurate description of the record as it stood between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-25, when only the Prime Minister's own statements existed; it is not rewritten in place.
- This entry follows this record's earlier Resolution on the 2025 United States tariff actions on Canadian goods and does not edit, supersede, or restate it; that earlier entry's 2025 executive orders and proclamations remain its own record.
- Concretization, 2026-08-25: the Department of Finance Canada published Canada's own retaliatory counter-tariff schedule (news release and 'Complete list of U.S. products subject to counter tariffs' page), effective 12:01 a.m., 2026-09-08. Its own words: 'Effective September 8, Canada will impose counter-tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 per cent on products drawn from those targeted by U.S. Section 338 and Section 232 tariffs, with the rate for each product matching the corresponding U.S. rate,' applying to 'products covering $27.6 billion in imports from the U.S.,' focused, in the news release's own words, on 'sectors such as steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics' -- the Complete list page's own sector list adds aluminum and plastics to that list. In certain sectors, including steel and aluminum, an existing 25 percent Canadian counter-tariff rises to 50 percent 'to match U.S. rates'; other existing Canadian counter-tariffs, including on U.S. autos, continue unchanged. The same day, the government announced a $7.5 billion package of new and enhanced support measures for tariff-affected workers and businesses, stated as building on 'the nearly $25 billion in supports the government has implemented over the past 18 months' -- both figures pinned as values in this entry, and cited (not re-pinned) in this record's companion Resolution on the federal budgetary balance as a divergence observation only. The news release's own lede states this $27.6 billion figure a second way: as the value of Canadian goods the U.S. tariff applies to, the release's own precise restatement of the Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure pinned earlier in this entry -- and states Canada's own counter-tariffs, covering an equal $27.6 billion of U.S. goods, are matched to it dollar for dollar by the government's own design (see the resolution[] entry recording that this record computes no numeric difference between the Prime Minister's approximate figure and the Department of Finance's precise ones, on grounds of approximation and differing sub-issuer, not differing populations). This record does not reconcile any of these figures against independently measured trade statistics. This capture does not transcribe the item-level tariff schedule (893 rows in the new 2026-09-08 table alone, per this record's own programmatic count, beside two further tables of 313 and 1,814 rows); it pins the publications' own summary text and the rate tiers this record independently verified are present in the schedule (see the Complete list publication's own information_set), which is also the document that carries the underlying Harmonized System codes -- a check that also found the news release's own 'Quick facts' summary (steel/aluminum, furniture, and clothing/apparel named as 50 percent examples; appliances, dairy such as cheese, fish/seafood, and steel/aluminum derivatives named as 25 percent examples) does not name dairy, cosmetics, or wood products among its 50 percent examples, even though specific items in those categories carry the 50 percent rate in the schedule itself -- both statements are pinned, and neither is treated as contradicting the other: a summary naming examples is not a claim that the list is exhaustive. The Complete list page's own note, governing its item-level table, states it is 'prepared for information purposes only and has no official sanction' and that its Harmonized System headings and descriptions 'are for illustrative purposes'; the rate-tier findings above are independently verified against that same table and carry the same qualification.
Related on this site
- Big Question: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
- Deep Dive: The Tariff Ledger →
- Brief: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability