Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the government's own With Measures and With Additional Measures 2030/2035 projections, and the LULUCF accounting contribution that bridges the two
National greenhouse gas emissions on the accounting basis Canada's 2030/2035 targets and 2026 interim objective are assessed against -- the National Inventory Report's four-sector total (Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, Agriculture, Waste), excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the separately calculated LULUCF accounting contribution (net-net accounting for most land categories; a reference-level approach for forest land remaining forest land and harvested wood products; natural disturbances excluded). Published as the Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators 'Greenhouse gas emissions projections' series, 2026 vintage (historical years sourced from the National Inventory Report 1990-2023, i.e. the NIR2025 edition). Also carries the LULUCF accounting-contribution series by year (the component that moves this basis away from the gross inventory total) and the government's own successive With Measures (WM) and With Additional Measures (WAM) 2030 scenario totals, including the itemized sector-level revision between the 2023 and 2025 progress-report vintages of the same WAM scenario.
A Resolution record holds one institution's own published figures for a single, specific quantity — a projection, an estimate, or a measured record — across every vintage in which that institution restated it. Each time an issuer publishes a new budget, report, or release, an earlier figure does not disappear from the record; it is preserved exactly as it was first published, dated and cited, alongside the newer one. What is a Resolution record? →
Awaiting settlement. This lineage carries forward-looking positions its issuer published — projections, or scenarios modelled under stated assumptions. No settled outcome, meaning an audited result or a final release, stands against them yet; where an interim estimate exists it is labelled as one, row by row. A scenario is a conditional pathway under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | Environment and Climate Change Canada | 2026-06-18 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-14 |
| CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenario | Environment and Climate Change Canada | 2026-06-18 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-14 |
| CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario | Environment and Climate Change Canada | 2026-06-18 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-14 |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | Environment and Climate Change Canada | 2025-12-17 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-21 |
| EPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05) | Environment and Climate Change Canada | 2025-12-17 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-21 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2005 (target base year) | 759.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2006 | 752.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2007 | 778.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2008 | 760.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2009 | 700.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2010 | 738.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2011 | 755.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2012 | 742.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2013 | 747.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2014 | 721.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2015 | 746.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2016 | 715.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2017 | 719.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2018 | 730.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2019 (last pre-pandemic year) | 722.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2020 (pandemic-shock year) | 660.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2021 | 665.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2022 | 709.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis | 2023 (latest observed year on the target-accounting basis) | 655.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenario | 2026 (With Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective) | 635.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario | 2026 (With Additional Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective) | 636.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenario | 2030 (With Measures scenario) | 600.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
| CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario | 2030 (With Additional Measures scenario) | 546.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2005 (accounting contribution, by construction the base-year reference) | 0.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2019 (accounting contribution) | -25.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2020 (accounting contribution) | -23.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2021 (accounting contribution) | -29.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2022 (accounting contribution -- positive, i.e. raised the target-basis total that year) | 8.8 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2023 (accounting contribution) | -39.0 Mt CO2e | institutional estimate | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2024 (accounting contribution, With Additional Measures modelled path -- 2024 has not yet been observed on this basis) | -6.8 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
| EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2030 (accounting contribution, With Additional Measures scenario) | -25.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
| EPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05) | 2030 With Additional Measures, as presented in the 2023 progress report (EPR2023 vintage -- superseded by the current EPR2025 figure) | 467.0 Mt CO2e | scenario | — | — |
Movement between vintages
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 With Additional Measures scenario: EPR2023 vintage vs EPR2025 vintage | EPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05) (scenario 467.0 Mt CO2e) vs. CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario (scenario 546.0 Mt CO2e) | +79.0 Mt CO2e | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (4)
- The LULUCF accounting contribution is volatile year to year (+8.8 Mt in 2022, -39.0 Mt in 2023 -- a roughly 48 Mt swing) in a way the combustion-based gross inventory is not; a single year's movement on this basis can be driven more by the accounting layer than by any change in fuel use, industrial output, or land management.
- The 2005 base value on this basis (759 Mt) differs from the same base year's value on the gross-inventory basis (763.02 Mt, see the gross-inventory entry) because the two Resolutions carry different National Inventory Report vintages (NIR2025 versus NIR2026) as well as different LULUCF treatment -- the two bases are never combined in one calculation.
- With Measures and With Additional Measures figures are the issuer's own modelled scenario pathways under its stated assumptions; they are not commitments, plans, or Countability forecasts, and are never rendered as observed outcomes.
- Western Climate Initiative credit flows (Quebec-California allowance trading) are excluded from every total on this Resolution from the EPR2025 vintage forward, per the issuer's own note about the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement; earlier vintages may have treated them differently.
Related on this site
- Big Question: Is Canada on track for its climate commitments — and would the record show it? →
- Brief: The distance still to travel →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for The distance still to travel →
- Domain: Climate →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability