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Does the federal budget land where it was promised?
Governments state a fiscal plan and then restate it, often several times, before the year it concerns has even ended -- and the audited record that would finally settle it arrives long after most people have stopped watching. Whether a stated fiscal promise for a given year is kept, missed, or still unsettled is a question almost every other fiscal argument quietly assumes an answer to, without checking.
The federal budget's declared trajectory shapes borrowing costs, program funding, and the room left for future commitments -- and the gap between a promised deficit and what eventually lands is paid for one way or another. Canada's own public record already holds a government's successive published estimates for the same fiscal year, its own unaudited in-year tally, Statistics Canada's separate measurement, and an interest bill that keeps taking a larger share of federal revenue -- everything needed to check the promise except the one figure that finally settles it.
The new fiscal year, through July
The federal government recorded a $5.138 billion deficit from April to July 2026. On the same monthly Statistics Canada series, the balance was $2.650 billion higher than in the same four months of 2025. Four months do not determine the full-year result.
| Measure | 2025–26, current monthly series | 2026–27, current monthly series | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budgetary balance | -7,788 | -5,138 | 2,650 |
| Revenue | 163,443 | 175,469 | 12,026 |
| Expenses | 171,231 | 180,607 | 9,376 |
| Program expenses | 152,634 | 160,628 | 7,994 |
| Public debt charges | 18,597 | 19,979 | 1,382 |
| Reference month | 2026 balance | Matched 2025 balance, current series | 2025 balance held in July reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | -1,046 | -7,709 | -7,711 |
| 2026-05 | -313 | -2,196 | -2,194 |
| 2026-06 | 989 | 3,629 | 3,629 |
| 2026-07 | -4,768 | -1,512 | -1,512 |
These observations use the Public Accounts basis and are unaudited. The comparison uses April–July in each fiscal year; it is neither seasonally adjusted nor annualized. Historical reading records keep their original source editions.
| Concept | Month | Held July 2026 capture | October 2026 capture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budgetary balance | 2025-04 | -7,711 | -7,709 |
| Budgetary balance | 2025-05 | -2,194 | -2,196 |
| Revenue | 2025-04 | 38,782 | 38,784 |
| Revenue | 2025-05 | 37,246 | 37,244 |
The July Fiscal Monitor independently reports the current four-month balance as -5,138 million dollars. Its prior-year cumulative balance is -7,787 million, compared with -7,788 million from adding the published Statistics Canada monthly cells. This 1 million dollar difference is retained; the two source presentations are not silently made to agree.
Sources: Statistics Canada, table 10-10-0133-01 (July observations released September 28, 2026); Department of Finance, July 2026 Fiscal Monitor (published September 25, 2026). Rechecked October 4. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
A new CPP scenario sits beside the older valuation
The Chief Actuary’s 33rd report, published June 8, 2026, supplements the revised 32nd report on the same December 31, 2024 valuation date. It tests the base-CPP contribution-rate reduction proposed in Bill C-30. It is a separate conditional scenario, not a replacement of every projection in the earlier valuation.
| Measure | Rate | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Statutory rate in the report’s scenario | 9.9% | Calendar years 2025 and 2026 |
| Proposed statutory rate in the scenario | 9.5% | Calendar year 2027 onwards |
| Minimum rate estimated by the Chief Actuary | 9.22% | Calendar years 2028–2033 |
| Minimum rate estimated by the Chief Actuary | 9.20% | Calendar year 2034 onwards |
The report finds the proposed rate sufficient to finance the base CPP over the long term under its assumptions. The lower rate reduces projected contributions, investment income and assets; contributory earnings and expenditures retain the earlier report’s assumptions. The revised 32nd report remains visible as its original valuation.
This is the report’s assessment of a proposed amendment. This source qualification does not establish the bill’s legislative status or say the reduction has taken effect. The base CPP is a contribution-financed pension plan; these rates are not federal budget balances or additional-CPP rates.
Source: Office of the Chief Actuary, 33rd CPP Actuarial Report, highlights and sections 2–3.
The debt series stops earlier
| Measure | Reference month | Published amount | Subsequent unavailable months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal debt (accumulated deficit) | 2026-03 | 1,322,004 | 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07 |
| Gross debt (liabilities) | 2026-03 | 2,315,487 | 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07 |
| Net debt | 2026-03 | 1,467,135 | 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07 |
April–July 2026 cells in this debt table have no published numeric value (source status 1). They are not zero and March’s stocks are not carried forward. The three debt concepts describe different accounting quantities; they are not interchangeable or added together. These unaudited observations do not settle the earlier fiscal-year reading.
Source: Statistics Canada, table 10-10-0002-01. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
The current reading
Budget 2026 is now read. It adds a new projection path. It does not change the audited 2025–26 settlement.
Budget 2026, tabled November 5, projects a deficit of $62.3 billion for fiscal 2026–27, against $65.3 billion in the Spring Economic Update. From 2026–27 to 2030–31 the forecast improved by $158.3 billion before any new decision, and decisions since April cost $151.5 billion. About $62.0 billion of the improvement is a lower estimate of direct program spending, which the budget says "does not change approved funding". That line also includes pension-valuation effects that the budget says are "broadly offset" in other lines. The audited fiscal 2025–26 deficit of $39.316 billion remains the latest settled year.
Basis: Figures are read from the published budget tables, captured November 10, 2026. Each total is disclosed arithmetic on the published rounded figures.
- Budget 2026, Annex 1, Table A1.4: the spring path, the forecast change and the cost of decisions, by year.
- Public Accounts of Canada 2026: the audited fiscal 2025–26 deficit of $39.316 billion.
Next: The next monthly Fiscal Monitor and the Parliamentary Budget Officer's analysis of Budget 2026. Trigger: A new qualified fiscal publication, or a correction to the online budget tables.
Limit: Projections are not outcomes. This reading does not judge the measures, rank forecasters or assess long-run sustainability. Expiry: Review at the next qualified fiscal publication.
The Brief behind this reading → · See the Receipt — sources, method and limits →
Earlier Question Pulses
These archived readings retain their original assessment dates, evidence cutoffs, limits and expiry conditions.
10 November 2026 · 6 September 2026
Assessed 2026-11-10 · Evidence reviewed through 2026-11-10
Public Accounts of Canada 2026, tabled November 6, reports an audited annual operating deficit of $39.316 billion for fiscal 2025–26. This includes net actuarial losses and excludes separately reported remeasurement gains and losses. It is the annual balance on the Public Accounts basis, not the National Accounts estimate or an operating-spending anchor. The audited deficit is $27.584 billion smaller than the Spring Economic Update’s latest qualified pre-settlement estimate of a $66.9 billion deficit, and $15.961 billion smaller than the unaudited March Fiscal Monitor deficit. These are differences between dated publications, not a ranking of forecasts or an explanation of what caused the change. Earlier projections and the unaudited observation remain visible. The separate April–July monthly panel retains its October review date and original source edition. The audited settlement does not update that new fiscal year, resolve long-run sustainability, or turn a National Accounts figure into a Public Accounts figure. Budget 2026 is a separate successor publication whose projections still require qualification here.
State at assessment: changed. A dated audited source successor now settles the annual Public Accounts balance. This is not a correction to the earlier projections.
Basis: Audited statement and official machine-readable annual balance independently reconciled; differences from the retained dated projections and unaudited tally are explicit arithmetic on the same fiscal-year basis.
- The audited statement and machine-readable annual balance, reconciled from captured official source bytes.
- The retained four projections and March unaudited tally on the same fiscal-year basis.
Next release at assessment: Qualification of Budget 2026 and the next monthly or quarterly government-finance publication. Trigger at assessment: A qualified new fiscal publication or a revision to the audited statements.
Limit: The settlement does not explain the change, rank forecast accuracy, settle a National Accounts estimate or measure long-run sustainability. Expiry: Review at the next qualified fiscal successor; the separate monthly panel remains dated.
Supersedes the September 6 Pulse; its complete earlier wording remains available in the Pulse history.
Assessed 2026-09-06 · Evidence reviewed through 2026-09-06
No audited outcome exists yet for fiscal 2025-26. The government's own projection of that year's deficit moved from $38.9 billion to $42.2 billion to $78.3 billion before narrowing to $66.9 billion at its final pre-settlement estimate; the government's own unaudited year-end tally shows $55.3 billion, before the post-March accrual, valuation, and other adjustments recorded before the Public Accounts settle a year (which, on the Fiscal Monitor's own account, cut the final deficit by $6.8 billion in 2024-25, added $10.9 billion in 2023-24, and cut $6.0 billion in 2022-23); and Statistics Canada's separate National Accounts measurement now puts the year at $47.6 billion, 1.5 per cent of GDP. Statistics Canada's August 28 release revises the federal deficit for fiscal 2025-26 on the National Accounts basis from $44.823 billion to $47.636 billion, an increase of $2.813 billion. The revised annual estimate is 1.5 per cent of the GDP measure for the same four quarters. Separately, April-June 2026, the first quarter of fiscal 2026-27, records net borrowing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $57.964 billion, narrower than the revised $61.700 billion in January-March 2026, the last quarter of fiscal 2025-26. That new quarter is outside the year being revised. None of these is an audited Public Accounts settlement. Federal interest now takes 10.0 per cent of federal revenue, up from 5.9 per cent four fiscal years earlier, and 'federal debt' spans roughly twenty-six points of GDP depending on which of four concepts is cited. The Public Accounts of Canada, this autumn, settle the promise on its own basis.
State at assessment: changed. The August 28 National Accounts release revises the fiscal 2025-26 estimate; Finance Canada projections and the unaudited tally are unchanged, and no audited settlement is admitted.
Basis: Level and comparison arithmetic over pinned, archived, hash-verified published figures and already-grandfathered Statistics Canada series; the open questions are which accounting basis and vintage a given figure carries, not the arithmetic itself.
- The four-vintage Finance Canada projection lineage for fiscal 2025-26, from Budget 2024 through the Spring Economic Update 2026, against the Fiscal Monitor's own unaudited year-end observation of the same year.
- Federal interest as a share of federal revenue, at its lowest recent point, at the latest fiscal year, and at the record's own historical peak.
- The four-concept federal debt table (Canadian Government Finance Statistics gross liabilities and net financial worth; Public Accounts net debt and the accumulated deficit), each at its own latest available date.
Next release at assessment: The Public Accounts of Canada tabling (this autumn, the standing settlement event for this question), or the next quarterly government finance statistics release, whichever comes first. Trigger at assessment: The Public Accounts of Canada tabling; any quarterly government finance statistics release that materially moves the interest-share or deficit-run reading; any new Finance Canada fiscal update that adds a projection vintage.
Limit: No audited figure exists for the fiscal year this question concerns; the National Accounts quarterly track and the Finance Canada projections are on different accounting bases and are never scored against each other; the government's own operating-balance anchor has no official series that isolates it; no figure here attributes a projection's movement between vintages to policy, the economy, or restatement. Expiry: Expires at the Public Accounts of Canada tabling or the next quarterly government finance statistics release, whichever comes first; updated or explicitly re-affirmed then.
Original dated Pulse, retained unchanged.
What the record shows
Federal deficit widened to -1.48% of GDP over the four quarters ending 2026 Q2, against the declining-deficit-to-GDP anchor
Over the four quarters from 2025 Q3 through 2026 Q2, federal net lending or borrowing on the National Accounts basis was -1.48% of nominal GDP, versus -1.23% over 2024 Q3 through 2025 Q2 — a year-over-year deterioration. Each ratio divides the sum of four quarterly net-lending/borrowing observations by the sum of GDP for the same quarters; both inputs are seasonally adjusted at annual rates, so their common scaling cancels. The government's fiscal anchor (Budget 2025, reaffirmed in the Spring Economic Update 2026) names a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over 2025-26 to 2030-31. This rolling-year test is Countability's stated pace convention, not a path the government promised each quarter. The National Accounts basis differs from Finance Canada's Public Accounts budgetary balance. Correction: this pace calculation now follows its registered four-quarter convention; the earlier implementation compared single quarters a year apart. The direction on the refreshed evidence is deterioration under either window, but the percentages differ.
Registered commitments
Maintain a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon (fiscal anchor announced in Budget 2025, reaffirmed in the Spring Economic Update 2026)
Issuer: Government of Canada (Department of Finance). Stated in Spring Economic Update 2026, reaffirming Budget 2025.
Latest observed: -1.48 % of GDP (federal budgetary balance) (four quarters ending 2026 Q2) against target -1.4 (% of GDP (federal budgetary balance)).
Added 2026-11-11: Budget 2026 projects the deficit at 1.8% of GDP in 2026–27, 1.8% in 2027–28, 1.6% in 2028–29, 1.4% in 2029–30 and 1.3% in 2030–31 (Annex 1, Table A1.4). The endpoint is now a deficit of 1.3% of GDP. The audited deficit for fiscal 2025–26 was 1.2% of GDP (Public Accounts of Canada 2026). Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Added 2026-11-11: On this record's year-over-year convention, 2026–27 is a rise from 2025–26. The budget describes the ratio as projected to decline "over the budget planning horizon". Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Target deadline: 2031-03-31. Original statement: 2026-04-28.
Balance day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29 (fiscal anchor announced in Budget 2025, reaffirmed in the Spring Economic Update 2026)
Issuer: Government of Canada (Department of Finance). Stated in Spring Economic Update 2026, reaffirming Budget 2025.
Latest observed: No matched observation.
Original stated target: 0 (CAD billions, operating balance (day-to-day spending less revenues, Budget accounting basis)).
PBO’s October 20, 2026 outlook projects a $6.2 billion operating surplus in 2028-29 on the government’s operating/capital classification, under PBO’s stated policy and economic assumptions. This is a forecast, not observed compliance.
Forecast source: Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2026 (RP-2627-011-S), published 2026-10-20. PBO's fiscal-year Public Accounts projections on its own nominal-GDP assumptions. Only explicitly verified points are retained; missing intermediate values are not interpolated.
Added 2026-11-11: Budget 2026 (tabled November 5, 2026) projects a day-to-day operating balance of $11.2 billion in 2027–28, "one year ahead of the target set in Budget 2025". The deadline recorded here is unchanged. Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Added 2026-11-11: Basis: the projected balance includes row E of Table A1.6, estimated forgone revenue: $16.8 billion in 2027–28, against $4.7 billion for the same year in Budget 2025 and $6.7 billion in the Spring Economic Update. Recorded revenue minus day-to-day spending is -$5.6 billion in 2027–28 and +$3.3 billion in 2028–29 (Countability calculation from the published rows). Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
Measurement status: PBO now publishes an operating-budget assessment and October 2026 projection on the government's operating/capital classification. What remains missing here is a matched observed, continuously updated operating-balance series on that classification; the National Accounts split is not interchangeable.
Target deadline: 2029-03-31. Original statement: 2026-04-28.
Institutional projections on file
Spring Economic Update 2026 ("Canada Strong For All")
Government's own fiscal projection, reaffirming the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: (1) a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon, and (2) balancing day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29
Measure: pct of gdp.
Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2026 (RP-2627-011-S)
PBO's October current-policy projection, incorporating economic data through October 6 and measures announced since the Spring Economic Update. It assesses the two fiscal anchors separately; these are forecasts, not observed compliance.
Measure: pct of gdp.
Economic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026 (RP-2627-002-S)
PBO's independent baseline fiscal projection under current legislated policy settings (no new measures assumed) — a baseline for parliamentary scrutiny, explicitly not a critique of the government's fiscal anchors
Measure: pct of gdp.
Budget 2026 ("Masters of our destiny")
Government's own fiscal projection in Budget 2026, stated against the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: a deficit-to-GDP ratio projected to decline over the budget planning horizon, and day-to-day operating spending balanced by revenues by fiscal year 2028-29
Measure: pct of gdp.
Where institutions disagree
What is the federal deficit projected to be in 2025-26?
Retained April–June 2026 forecast comparison. Later qualified outlooks appear separately in the model record; this is not a same-vintage current comparison.
Government's own current-policy-plus-announced-measures projection, Public Accounts basis → source
PBO's independent baseline projection under current legislated policy, no new measures assumed → source
Why they differ: PBO's outlook (published five weeks after the Spring Economic Update) states its deficit path averages $4.6B/year above the government's own projection, which it attributes to lower projected revenue (particularly personal income tax) and higher projected program expenses under PBO's independent economic and revenue models. Not a vintage-only difference: PBO explicitly frames its figures as an independent baseline, not a restatement of the government's own numbers.
Added 2026-11-11: The audited fiscal 2025–26 deficit of $39.316 billion (Public Accounts of Canada 2026, tabled November 6) now settles the year both projections were about. The two projections are kept here as a historical record; this record makes no finding about either. Source: Public Accounts of Canada 2026
How much will Canada's federal debt-to-GDP ratio rise by 2030-31?
Retained April–June 2026 forecast comparison. Later qualified outlooks appear separately in the model record; this is not a same-vintage current comparison.
Government's own projection: a hump-shaped path, net +0.5 percentage points over the full horizon (rises to a peak in 2028-29, then partially retreats). The government's stated fiscal anchor targets the DEFICIT-to-GDP ratio, which does decline monotonically in this same projection (-2.1% to -1.4%) — the debt-to-GDP ratio itself is not the anchored quantity and is not projected to fall below where it starts. → source
PBO's independent baseline: net +1.2 percentage points, rising continuously under current policy settings with no mid-horizon retreat — more than double Finance's own net increase → source
Magnitude: 0.9pp gap in the projected 2030-31 ending ratio (41.6% vs 42.5%); PBO's projected increase (+1.2pp) is more than double Finance's own (+0.5pp net, with a hump-shaped path vs PBO's continuous rise)
Why they differ: Different baselines, not different arithmetic: Finance Canada's path embeds its own policy plans and announced measures; PBO's path holds current legislated policy constant with no new measures, and projects materially lower revenue and higher program expenses over the same window. The two institutions are answering 'what happens under my own assumptions', not disputing a single fact.
Added 2026-11-11: The current pair is Budget 2026, which projects federal debt at 40.1% of GDP in 2030–31, and the Parliamentary Budget Officer's October 2026 outlook, which projects 42.6%. The two are not like-for-like: the October outlook predates the audited fiscal 2025–26 result and does not include Budget 2026 measures. The April and June pair above is kept as history. Source: Budget 2026, Annex 1: Details of economic and fiscal projections
What cannot yet be known
Is the federal government on track to balance day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29?
What is missing: Budget 2026 shows the operating balance met in 2027–28. One line of that calculation is estimated forgone tax revenue ($16.8 billion in 2027–28). The budget states that it 'is not recorded in the government's financial statements and is therefore not observed directly.' No audited statement reports that line or the capital classification the anchor uses.
Consequence: The anchor's outcome will rest partly on the government's own estimate. Countability shows the published calculation and the recorded-revenue figure side by side and makes no compliance finding.
November 11, 2026: scope updated with Budget 2026, tabled November 5. October 27, 2026: scope updated using the October PBO outlook. Earlier wording is shown below.
Wording replaced on 11 November 2026.
What was missing: PBO now publishes an operating-budget assessment and October 2026 projection on the government's operating/capital classification. What remains missing here is a matched observed, continuously updated operating-balance series on that classification; the National Accounts split is not interchangeable.
Consequence: The October PBO model projects a $6.2 billion operating surplus in 2028-29 under its assumptions. That forecast is shown beside the commitment; it is not an observed compliance finding and does not justify manufacturing an operating balance from unmatched National Accounts components.
What would close it: A published government or StatsCan methodology mapping the Budget's operating/capital expenditure split onto a continuously updated machine-readable series.
Wording replaced on 27 October 2026.
What was missing: No official machine-readable series isolates 'day-to-day operating spending' from capital investment on the same accounting basis the government uses for this anchor. Statistics Canada's National Accounts federal expenditure series (table 36-10-0477) separates final consumption expenditure from non-financial capital acquisition, but does not reproduce the Budget's own operating/capital split — the two decompositions are not confirmed to be identical.
Consequence: This commitment is published as a registered commitment without a compliance claim. Countability will not construct a proxy operating-balance measure by subtracting StatsCan capital-acquisition from federal expenditure absent confirmation that this matches the Budget's own definition.
What would close it: A published government or StatsCan methodology mapping the Budget's operating/capital expenditure split onto a continuously updated machine-readable series.
How does Canada's actual federal debt-to-GDP ratio compare with Finance Canada's and PBO's projected paths?
What is missing: The only StatsCan machine-readable federal balance-sheet series (table 10-10-0016, Canadian Government Finance Statistics basis) lags materially behind the projection vintages: its cube metadata reports a latest reference year of 2024, roughly two fiscal years behind the 2025-26 starting point of both institutions' projection paths. It is also conceptually distinct from the Public Accounts 'federal debt' (accumulated deficit) concept both Finance Canada and PBO use in their own tables — CGFS liabilities and Public Accounts federal debt are not confirmed to be composed identically.
Consequence: Countability cannot publish a same-basis, current-vintage compliance comparison of actual federal debt-to-GDP against either institution's projected path. The two projected paths are published side by side as modelled benchmarks (never merged); Countability's own StatsCan-sourced debt figure is shown separately as clearly-dated context, not blended with either projection.
On the record
Spring Economic Update 2026 released
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled the Spring Economic Update 2026 ("Canada Strong For All"), reaffirming the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon, and balancing day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29.
PBO Economic and Fiscal Outlook (June 2026) released
The Parliamentary Budget Officer published its Economic and Fiscal Outlook – June 2026 (RP-2627-002-S), an independent baseline fiscal projection under current legislated policy settings, projecting deficits averaging $4.6 billion per year above the Spring Economic Update 2026 and a rising federal debt-to-GDP ratio through 2030-31.
The projection record
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability. See the full public Resolution record →
Canada's federal debt, on three accounting concepts, at their own closest available dates
Four figures that are each publicly cited as 'the federal debt,' pinned side by side with the concept, basis, and date each one carries: two Canadian Government Finance Statistics (CGFS) balance-sheet concepts from Statistics Canada (gross liabilities and net financial worth, calendar 2024, the most recent CGFS annual vintage available), and two Public Accounts-basis concepts from the Department of Finance's Fiscal Monitor (net debt and federal debt/accumulated deficit, both at 2026-03-31, unaudited pending the Public Accounts of Canada 2026). No concept is derived from another; none is asserted to be compositionally reconcilable with another; a published evidence gap states why. This entry pins each one from its own archived source bytes so the Fiscal Position and Settlement Brief's debt-concept chapter renders from citations, not render-time arithmetic.
comparable · difference -145131 · same issuer. Numeric difference: federal debt (accumulated deficit) minus net debt, same date, in millions of Canadian dollars. Both are Public-Accounts-basis concepts from the same unaudited Fiscal Monitor publication; the difference is exactly the Government's non-financial assets (physical and other capital assets) as of the same date, a compositional relationship rather than a disagreement.
comparable · difference -2926178 · same issuer. Numeric difference: net financial worth minus gross liabilities, same date, in millions of Canadian dollars. Not a disagreement between sources -- both are Statistics Canada's own CGFS compilation, same date; the difference is exactly total financial assets, a compositional relationship.
- These four values are never combined, netted, or averaged into a single 'federal debt' figure. Each is pinned at its own concept, basis, date, and issuer; the Fiscal Position and Settlement Brief presents them side by side, with a stated read of when each is the right number to cite -- it does not adjudicate which is 'the' federal debt.
- The two CGFS values (calendar 2024) and the two Public Accounts-basis values (2026-03-31) are roughly two years apart -- CGFS is an annual compilation that lags the current quarter by about two years, while the Fiscal Monitor is current to the latest month. No interpolation or vintage-blending is performed to bring them to a common date; each concept is presented at its own latest available date, with that date printed beside it; a published evidence gap states why.
- Percentage-of-GDP figures for these four concepts are computed by the Brief's own window_share_of_gdp scenarios against Statistics Canada's nominal GDP series (already-grandfathered statcan:36-10-0104-01), dividing each concept by the average of its own reference year's four SAAR quarters of nominal GDP (calendar 2024 for the CGFS pair, fiscal year 2025-26 for the Public Accounts pair) -- the standard annual-GDP denominator, not computed or stored inside this Resolution, which pins dollar levels only.
The federal fiscal year month by month: the path to the 2025-26 in-year deficit, and its reconciliation to the published annual statement
The same fiscal year, read two ways by the same source. Statistics Canada's table 10-10-0133-01 redistributes the Department of Finance's monthly financial data -- the cube's own footnote reads, verbatim, 'Source: Department of Finance Canada.' and 'Monthly financial data is unaudited.' -- so the twelve monthly budgetary balances of fiscal 2025-26 can be summed and set against the annual figure the Fiscal Monitor publishes for the same year. This entry pins the monthly path, the annual totals it sums to, the single month that carries most of it, and the composition line where the two presentations differ, each from its own archived source bytes. It states what the record shows about how a federal fiscal year accumulates; it does not forecast, and it does not treat an unaudited in-year figure as a settled outcome.
not yet comparable · same issuer. Numeric difference: the March 2026 budgetary balance minus the April 2025 to February 2026 balance, in millions of Canadian dollars, both from the same monthly series on one accounting basis. The two figures are complements, not competitors: they add to the twelve-month total pinned in this entry. The comparison states how unevenly the year accumulated, and nothing about why.
comparable · difference 13696 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the twelve-month sum of table 10-10-0133-01's program expenses minus the Fiscal Monitor's published 'program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses', in millions of Canadian dollars. The difference is not a disagreement about the year: it is the net actuarial losses line, which the Fiscal Monitor presents separately and the monthly series does not. Adding the separately pinned net actuarial losses of 13,695 to the Fiscal Monitor line gives 501,587 against the monthly sum of 501,588 -- the residual million is the rounding carried by twelve monthly figures each stated to the nearest million.
comparable · difference -5847 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the March 2026 budgetary balance minus the March 2025 budgetary balance, in millions of Canadian dollars, both from the same monthly series. Set beside the two annual totals also pinned here, the pair shows the final month carrying 55 per cent of fiscal 2024-25's deficit and 54 per cent of fiscal 2025-26's, on figures neither of which is audited.
- Every figure in this entry is unaudited. The source cube says so in its own footnote, and the Fiscal Monitor's HTML page says so in its own words. The audited outcome for fiscal 2025-26 is the Public Accounts of Canada, which had not been tabled when this entry was registered.
- The monthly series restates its own recent history. The cube's footnote states that changes in accounting policies, methodologies for estimating monthly balances, and the classification of balances between financial components are applied retroactively to monthly results for the fiscal year immediately preceding. No vintage archive of this series is published by anyone, so a figure pinned here cannot later be compared against what the same series said today unless these bytes are kept -- which is why they are archived with their hash.
- The monthly sums are addition and nothing else. No seasonal adjustment, annualisation, interpolation, or estimation is applied at any point. Where a sum differs from a published annual figure by one million dollars, the residual is the rounding carried by monthly values each stated to the nearest million, and it is reported rather than absorbed.
Federal annual balance: dated projections and audited settlement
The audited annual outcome beside the retained projections and unaudited observation, on the same Public Accounts fiscal-year basis. Earlier framing is preserved below.
comparable · difference -3.3 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. A negative number means the later projection is a larger deficit than the earlier one; no direction is judged better or worse. This is a same-issuer vintage comparison: it states how Finance Canada's own projection for this year moved between two publications, not whether either is closer to an outcome -- no audited outcome exists yet. percentage difference is not computed: the base is a projected budgetary balance (a negative number, a deficit), so a ratio of two deficits inverts the intuitive sign and does not yield a stable or meaningful percentage.
comparable · difference -36.1 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. Same-issuer vintage comparison; no audited outcome exists yet. percentage difference is not computed for the same reason as the Budget 2024 versus Fall Economic Statement 2024 comparison (the base is a projected deficit).
comparable · difference 11.4 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. A positive number means the later projection is a smaller deficit than the earlier one. Same-issuer vintage comparison; no audited outcome exists yet. percentage difference is not computed for the same reason as the Budget 2024 versus Fall Economic Statement 2024 comparison (the base is a projected deficit).
comparable · difference -28.0 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the latest captured projected value minus the first projected value, for fiscal 2025-26, in billions of Canadian dollars (the cumulative movement across all three re-projections). This is the entry's headline figure: how far Finance Canada's own budgetary-balance projection for this year has moved between its first publication and the most recent this entry captures. Same-issuer vintage comparison; no audited outcome exists yet. percentage difference is not computed for the same reason as the Budget 2024 versus Fall Economic Statement 2024 comparison (the base is a projected deficit).
comparable · difference 11.623 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the Fiscal Monitor's unaudited year-end observation minus Finance Canada's final pre-settlement projection, for fiscal 2025-26, in billions of Canadian dollars. A positive number means the observed year-end position is a smaller deficit than the final projection. Both values are the same issuer (Finance Canada) on the same accounting basis (Public Accounts) and the same fiscal year, so this is a same-issuer, same-basis comparison between a projection and the government's own in-year administrative observation of that projection's own year -- not a comparison against an audited outcome, which does not exist yet. percentage difference is not computed for the same reason as the Budget 2024 versus Fall Economic Statement 2024 comparison (both bases are deficits).
comparable · difference -0.416 · cross-issuer. Audited outcome minus the earlier published figure, in billions of Canadian dollars for fiscal 2025–26 on the Public Accounts annual balance basis. Differences retain the rounding of historical published projections; no forecast-accuracy ranking, favourable/unfavourable judgment, percent comparison or causal inference is made.
comparable · difference 2.884 · cross-issuer. Audited outcome minus the earlier published figure, in billions of Canadian dollars for fiscal 2025–26 on the Public Accounts annual balance basis. Differences retain the rounding of historical published projections; no forecast-accuracy ranking, favourable/unfavourable judgment, percent comparison or causal inference is made.
comparable · difference 38.984 · cross-issuer. Audited outcome minus the earlier published figure, in billions of Canadian dollars for fiscal 2025–26 on the Public Accounts annual balance basis. Differences retain the rounding of historical published projections; no forecast-accuracy ranking, favourable/unfavourable judgment, percent comparison or causal inference is made.
comparable · difference 27.584 · cross-issuer. Audited outcome minus the earlier published figure, in billions of Canadian dollars for fiscal 2025–26 on the Public Accounts annual balance basis. Differences retain the rounding of historical published projections; no forecast-accuracy ranking, favourable/unfavourable judgment, percent comparison or causal inference is made.
comparable · difference 15.961 · cross-issuer. Audited outcome minus the earlier published figure, in billions of Canadian dollars for fiscal 2025–26 on the Public Accounts annual balance basis. Differences retain the rounding of historical published projections; no forecast-accuracy ranking, favourable/unfavourable judgment, percent comparison or causal inference is made.
- Original pre-settlement caveat, retained as history: No audited outcome exists yet. This entry is a pinned projection lineage, not a projection-vs-outturn resolution: every value is one of Finance Canada's own successive projections for fiscal 2025-26, and none is an observed or audited result. The Public Accounts of Canada for 2025-26 (expected autumn 2026, issued by the Receiver General) will settle this fiscal year; when it does, a later reading records the audited outcome and the projection-vs-outturn resolution steps -- nothing here is edited in place. The entry is registered now so the four first-published projections are on the record, hash-pinned, before the outcome that would otherwise reframe them exists.
- Original pre-settlement caveat, retained as history: Every value is restated exactly as Finance Canada first published it and none has been attested by an independent auditor. These two provenance axes are carried on every value so that, when the audited Public Accounts outcome is added, its own assurance and its own basis are stated on the same two axes and never silently conflated with these projections.
- Original pre-settlement caveat, retained as history: This entry compares Finance Canada against itself: the same headline quantity, the same fiscal year, four successive projection vintages of the same summary fiscal outlook. It is a projection-drift record, not a disagreement between institutions -- the pace and direction at which one issuer's own projection for a single year moved as it re-forecast. No direction of movement is described as more or less sound; the signed difference in billions is the disclosed comparison.
The federal deficit for fiscal 2026–27, as each official document projected it
Canada's federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2026-27, and as a second period fiscal 2027-28, as the Department of Finance Canada projected it in Budget 2025, the Spring Economic Update 2026 and Budget 2026, each read from that publication's Annex 1 table, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer's October 2026 outlook shown beside them as a separate issuer and never merged. No audited outcome exists yet: Public Accounts of Canada 2027, expected in the fall of 2027, will settle fiscal 2026-27.
comparable · difference 0.1 · same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference.
comparable · difference 3.0 · same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference.
not yet comparable · cross-issuer. Shown side by side only; never differenced, averaged or merged.
comparable · difference 0.4 · same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference.
comparable · difference 0.6 · same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference.
not yet comparable · cross-issuer. Shown side by side only; never differenced, averaged or merged.
- These are projections, not outcomes. Same-issuer differences are disclosed arithmetic between dated publications on the Public Accounts basis; they rank no forecast and explain no change.
- The Parliamentary Budget Officer's October 2026 outlook was published before Budget 2026 and excludes Budget 2026 measures. It is shown beside the government's projections and is never averaged, merged or compared as if it were the same information set.
- Public Accounts of Canada 2027 will settle fiscal 2026-27; this record will add that audited value when it is tabled, expected in the fall of 2027.
What would change the record
- A published government or StatsCan methodology mapping the Budget's operating/capital expenditure split onto a continuously updated machine-readable series, and an audited or independently reproduced estimate of the forgone-revenue line.
- More timely StatsCan CGFS federal balance-sheet data, or a stable machine-readable Public Accounts basis federal debt series.
- Spring Economic Update 2026 released — 2026-04-28.
- PBO Economic and Fiscal Outlook (June 2026) released — 2026-06-04.
- PBO's 2026-06 position has already been superseded by its 2026-10 vintage.
This page brings together the evidence, institutional disagreements and gaps behind a continuing question. Where the record supports an answer, it appears with its date, sources, limits, Brief and Receipt. New evidence can change that answer.
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Related on this site
- Can Canada remain fiscally sustainable? →
- Which public promises can actually be checked? →
- How often do official forecasts come true? →
This page holds the current public record for this question. For a more specific question, see Work with Countability.
Work with Countability