The United States' share of Canada's goods exports: the monthly Balance-of-Payments record, 1997 through July 2026
Canada's monthly goods exports on the Balance of Payments basis, seasonally adjusted, to all countries, to the United States, and to the United Kingdom, as Statistics Canada's table 12-10-0011-01 publishes them. The current vintage covers reference months March 1997 through July 2026, as published at capture on 2026-09-04; the June 2026 extent from the 2026-08-04 capture and the May 2026 extent from the 2026-07-17 capture are both retained as prior vintages. Until 2026-09-06 the capture window was a fixed count of the latest published months, so it advanced at its recent end and receded at its early end with each vintage; that is why this vintage begins in March 1997, and why the earliest months of 1997 are held on the retained earlier captures and not on this one. That is now fixed. From 2026-09-06 the capture asks for the whole published series instead of a fixed count of months, so no capture from here on loses its oldest month. A full-extent capture taken on 2026-09-06 is archived beside these bytes; it reaches back to January 1997 and agrees with this vintage on every one of the 353 months the two share, value for value. This is the record behind the United States' share of Canadian exports and its 2025-26 movement.
A Resolution record holds one institution's own published figures for a single, specific quantity — a projection, an estimate, or a measured record — across every vintage in which that institution restated it. Each time an issuer publishes a new budget, report, or release, an earlier figure does not disappear from the record; it is preserved exactly as it was first published, dated and cited, alongside the newer one. What is a Resolution record? →
Maintained record. This lineage preserves an official record version by version — observations, estimates, or benchmarks its issuer restated over time. It projects nothing, so no settlement is pending; where a figure can still be revised, the page says so. How the numbers moved between versions is the evidence this lineage exists to keep.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| May 2026 reference month release | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-08-04 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-08-04 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-08-04 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-08-04 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-08-04 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-08-04 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-08-04 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-08-04 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-08-04 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-08-04 |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-09-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-09-04 |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-09-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-09-04 |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-09-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-09-04 |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-09-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-09-04 |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Statistics Canada | 2026-09-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-09-04 |
| July 2026 reference month release | Statistics Canada | 2026-09-03 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-09-04 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Twelve months ending May 2026 (exports to all countries) | 803,661.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Twelve months ending May 2026 (exports to the United States) | 555,559.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Twelve months ending May 2026 (exports to the United Kingdom) | 64,535.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Twelve months ending May 2025 (exports to all countries) | 790,059.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Twelve months ending May 2025 (exports to the United States) | 591,855.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Twelve months ending May 2025 (exports to the United Kingdom) | 37,143.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Calendar 2002 (exports to all countries; the record's highest-share year) | 413,069.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Calendar 2002 (exports to the United States) | 346,299.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Calendar 2024 (exports to all countries) | 777,613.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Calendar 2024 (exports to the United States) | 589,989.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Calendar 2025 (exports to all countries) | 775,785.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Calendar 2025 (exports to the United States; the record's lowest-share full year) | 555,388.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | May 2026, single month (exports to all countries) | 77,099.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | May 2026, single month (exports to the United States) | 53,724.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Twelve months ending June 2026 (exports to all countries) | 819,229.3 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Twelve months ending June 2025 (exports to all countries) | 786,119.1 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Twelve months ending June 2026 (exports to the United States) | 565,815.6 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Twelve months ending June 2025 (exports to the United States) | 585,473.4 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Twelve months ending June 2026 (exports to the United Kingdom) | 67,461.2 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | Twelve months ending June 2025 (exports to the United Kingdom) | 38,378.9 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | June 2026, single month (exports to all countries) | 77,486.4 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 | June 2026, single month (exports to the United States) | 53,889.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Twelve months ending July 2026 (exports to all countries) | 833,687.7 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Twelve months ending July 2025 (exports to all countries) | 783,554.6 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Twelve months ending July 2026 (exports to the United States) | 571,041.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Twelve months ending July 2025 (exports to the United States) | 580,452.2 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Twelve months ending July 2026 (exports to the United Kingdom) | 71,055.0 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Twelve months ending July 2025 (exports to the United Kingdom) | 39,657.9 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | July 2026, single month (exports to all countries) | 76,137.4 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | July 2026, single month (exports to the United States) | 50,517.1 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Calendar 2002 (exports to all countries; the record's highest-share year) | 413,068.8 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Calendar 2024 (exports to all countries) | 777,612.6 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Calendar 2025 (exports to all countries) | 775,784.7 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Calendar 2002 (exports to the United States) | 346,299.2 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Calendar 2024 (exports to the United States) | 589,989.2 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 | Calendar 2025 (exports to the United States; the record's lowest-share full year) | 555,387.8 CAD millions | institutional estimate | — | — |
Movement between vintages
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports to the United States, twelve months ending May 2025 to twelve months ending May 2026 | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (institutional estimate 591,855.0 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (institutional estimate 555,559.0 CAD millions) | -36,296.0 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to all countries, twelve months ending May 2025 to twelve months ending May 2026 | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (institutional estimate 790,059.0 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (institutional estimate 803,661.0 CAD millions) | +13,602.0 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to the United Kingdom, twelve months ending May 2025 to twelve months ending May 2026 | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (institutional estimate 37,143.0 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (institutional estimate 64,535.0 CAD millions) | +27,392.0 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to the United States, twelve months ending June 2025 to twelve months ending June 2026 | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 (institutional estimate 585,473.4 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 (institutional estimate 565,815.6 CAD millions) | -19,657.8 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to all countries, twelve months ending June 2025 to twelve months ending June 2026 | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 (institutional estimate 786,119.1 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 (institutional estimate 819,229.3 CAD millions) | +33,110.2 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to the United Kingdom, twelve months ending June 2025 to twelve months ending June 2026 | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 (institutional estimate 38,378.9 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-06, as published at the June-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-08-04) and captured 2026-08-04 (institutional estimate 67,461.2 CAD millions) | +29,082.3 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to the United States, twelve months ending July 2025 to twelve months ending July 2026 | Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 (institutional estimate 580,452.2 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 (institutional estimate 571,041.0 CAD millions) | -9,411.2 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to all countries, twelve months ending July 2025 to twelve months ending July 2026 | Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 (institutional estimate 783,554.6 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 (institutional estimate 833,687.7 CAD millions) | +50,133.1 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Exports to the United Kingdom, twelve months ending July 2025 to twelve months ending July 2026 | Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 (institutional estimate 39,657.9 CAD millions) vs. Reference months 1997-03 through 2026-07, as published at the July-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-09-03) and captured 2026-09-04 (institutional estimate 71,055.0 CAD millions) | +31,397.1 CAD millions | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (5)
- Balance-of-Payments monthly values are seasonally adjusted and remain subject to Statistics Canada's standard revisions; every figure on the current vintage is as published at capture on 2026-09-04, and each superseded vintage's figures stay as published at their own capture.
- All values are nominal (current dollars). A change in a window sum mixes price and volume movement; nothing here separates the two, and no figure on this page is a volume statement.
- Partner-level exports are gross shipment values, not domestic value added: a dollar of exports can carry imported content, so partner shares measure where shipments go, not where the income stays. Statistics Canada's value-added trade estimates are on a separate, slower basis and are not part of this record.
- Series-wide statements made from this record (the lowest twelve-month share, the largest one-year share falls) are computed over the full archived monthly series and re-derived independently from the archived bytes; the shares themselves are ratios of the pinned window sums.
- This entry and the customs-basis export entry read closely related but different quantities on different bases (Balance of Payments total exports here; customs-basis domestic exports there). Levels are never compared across the two bases anywhere in the Brief; each side's changes are computed inside its own basis.
Related on this site
- Big Question: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
- Brief: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability