Receipt
Evidence reviewed through 2026-11-10Receipt receipt-view-us-exposure-monitor
Receipt — US Exposure Monitor
A Receipt is a dated evidence summary for one product. It shows the question, the current answer, the sources, the method, the limits, and the next update.
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| The question | How exposed is Canada's trade to the United States — and is that exposure changing? |
|---|---|
| Current reading | Daily truck counts now cover all September. The computed goods and services rows cover September, and the separately dated September Balance of Payments successor below retains its own definitions. September has a higher daily average and a lower United States plate share than August, with different calendar and holiday composition. Labour Day counts as a weekday in these calendar totals. These unadjusted counts do not establish a trade trend. Neither counts nor trade aggregates identify tariff effects or duties paid. |
| Evidence reviewed through | 2026-11-10 |
| Basis | Statistics Canada merchandise-trade and border-activity tables, with separate measures of partner share, sector composition, CUSMA qualification, routing, price and volume, truck crossings and provincial destinations. Each section retains its own source and period. |
| Method | A curated composition over already-public members; every state row is checked before publication, and nothing is computed that the record does not already hold. |
| Confidence | The displayed figures are source observations or disclosed calculations. The tariff-coverage gap remains unresolved; source dates and the limits of each section are shown separately. |
| Next trigger | October merchandise trade, scheduled December 8, or an earlier qualified source revision. |
| Next evidence | The November 4 release supplied September trade; October trade is scheduled December 8. |
| Expiry | Reassess at the next qualified release or revision; earlier readings remain dated. |
Material definitions
- Values restate Statistics Canada observations or disclosed ratios of compatible observations. The counting rule, denominator and reporting period remain attached to each measure.
- The province-by-state export concentration reading (each province's largest United States-state destination and that state's share of the province's United States-bound exports) uses Statistics Canada's 'Domestic exports' figures, the only Trade measure this table publishes at the provincial level -- a narrower quantity than the Canada-level headline share, which is never merged with it.
- Services trade (Canada's total trade in services with the world, no United States-specific partner breakdown) is held as acquired, registered evidence and presented as a coverage gap rather than a state-matrix reading, until United States-partner services data is captured.
- The monthly trade rows and daily truck crossings have different reference periods. July merchandise trade precedes the dated duties; August truck counts straddle the United States effective date. Neither series establishes a tariff effect.
Decisive limitations
- No official source publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates on Canadian exports; this Monitor states that absence directly, as an unresolved evidence gap, rather than estimating a coverage share.
- The sectoral composition row covers four fetched industry sectors, roughly ninety-nine percent of exports to the United States; the remaining sectors, including an ambiguously named one, are not enumerated.
- The price-and-volume row fetches only the fixed-weighted indexes; an alternative weighting and a quarterly sibling table are registered but not fetched.
- The daily truck-crossing row is a Canada-level aggregate; its first monthly bucket is a four-day partial month and is not a trend point.
- The province-by-state row's full breakdown by product type together with province and state is not yet fetched; only the all-product-types province-by-state totals are read for the concentration reading.
Key sources and licences
- Merchandise imports and exports, customs-based, by Harmonized commodity description and coding system (HS) section, Canada, provinces and territories — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- International trade in services, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- International merchandise trade, by commodity, price and volume indexes, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- Merchandise imports and exports, customs-based, by free trade agreement and by commodity — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- Canadian international merchandise trade by industry for all countries, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- Canadian international merchandise trade for imports by country of origin and country of export — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- Canadian international merchandise trade for total exports, domestic exports and re-exports, by country of destination and country of origin, customs-based, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
- Leading indicator, Trucks and drivers entering or returning to Canada, by vehicle licence plate — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
This Receipt names the public sources and method needed to reproduce the figures it covers. Corrections are dated and explained, with the earlier published record retained.
Earlier Receipt — evidence through 2026-10-27; preserved 2026-11-10
Basis: Statistics Canada merchandise-trade and border-activity tables, with separate measures of partner share, sector composition, CUSMA qualification, routing, price and volume, truck crossings and provincial destinations. Each section retains its own source and period.
Confidence: The displayed figures are source observations or disclosed calculations. The tariff-coverage gap remains unresolved; source dates and the limits of each section are shown separately.
Next trigger at that reading: The next monthly international merchandise-trade release, a new border-activity observation, or an official amendment to the tariff instruments.
Next evidence at that reading: The next merchandise-trade release is November 4, 2026 for September, as stated in the captured October 6 issuer release. Border activity has its own release and reference dates.
Expiry at that reading: This is a maintained reading. A new dated assessment follows when relevant evidence changes the reading or confirms that it still holds.
Definitions
- Values restate Statistics Canada observations or disclosed ratios of compatible observations. The counting rule, denominator and reporting period remain attached to each measure.
- The province-by-state export concentration reading (each province's largest United States-state destination and that state's share of the province's United States-bound exports) uses Statistics Canada's 'Domestic exports' figures, the only Trade measure this table publishes at the provincial level -- a narrower quantity than the Canada-level headline share, which is never merged with it.
- Services trade (Canada's total trade in services with the world, no United States-specific partner breakdown) is held as acquired, registered evidence and presented as a coverage gap rather than a state-matrix reading, until United States-partner services data is captured.
- The monthly trade rows and daily truck crossings have different reference periods. July merchandise trade precedes the dated duties; August truck counts straddle the United States effective date. Neither series establishes a tariff effect.
Limitations
- No official source publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates on Canadian exports; this Monitor states that absence directly, as an unresolved evidence gap, rather than estimating a coverage share.
- The sectoral composition row covers four fetched industry sectors, roughly ninety-nine percent of exports to the United States; the remaining sectors, including an ambiguously named one, are not enumerated.
- The price-and-volume row fetches only the fixed-weighted indexes; an alternative weighting and a quarterly sibling table are registered but not fetched.
- The daily truck-crossing row is a Canada-level aggregate; its first monthly bucket is a four-day partial month and is not a trend point.
- The province-by-state row's full breakdown by product type together with province and state is not yet fetched; only the all-product-types province-by-state totals are read for the concentration reading.