Receipt — Claims on the grid: what Ontario's connection record proves about its largest new loads — and why the register they sit in cannot be added up

A Receipt is a dated evidence summary for one product. It shows the question, the current answer, the sources, the method, the limits, and the next update.

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The question	Who is asking Ontario's electricity system for large new connections, how much of that is engineering fact rather than announcement — and why can none of it honestly be added into a single number?
Current reading	October register reading: the current list contains 2,085 records, with 11 additions and no removals from the held September list. JBL now proposes Q1 2030, and Darlington now names Holt SS and has moved from Complete to Active. The issuer labels the list updated October 7. The existing large-load rule was recomputed: membership remains 75, with no entries or exits. These updates close the date and station-name mismatches with the held reports; engineering conditions and delivered-power limits remain.
Evidence reviewed through	2026-10-09
Basis	The IESO's public connection register (its page's own backing feed, one archived vintage, counted by a committed census script under a stated population rule) and the issuer's own posted engineering documents: final connection assessments for the flagship loads, one assessment's superseding addendum, one bulk plan, one transmitter needs assessment, and one integrated regional plan. Every quantity is the issuer's own stated figure or a count of the register's own fields; the only capacity sums on the page are the issuer's, quoted with attribution. Statistics Canada's two monthly Ontario generation tables are treated as one measurement, their identity re-derived from archived responses. On each maintained pass every reference the register publishes is re-fetched and hashed against what is held, so a silently revised or newly reachable assessment is caught rather than assumed away; the newest assessment in the data-centre lineage was reached this way.
Method	Pinned, cited evidence; no scenario is computed — every figure restates a pinned, re-derivable value from the product's member Resolutions.
Confidence	Every published figure re-derives from archived bytes (register counts by the committed census script; assessed quantities by quote against the archived assessment). What the record does not establish is stated as a named gap rather than estimated.
Next trigger	The next monthly register capture; any newly posted assessment for a large active application; any published apportionment of a shared station capacity.
Next evidence	Next IESO connection-list capture or revision, and newly posted engineering assessments. The October register and older engineering reports retain separate dates and evidentiary roles.
Expiry	This Receipt describes the product and evidence dates stated above. Reassess it when the named trigger changes the evidence; a page rebuild alone is not a fresh assessment. Earlier readings and corrections remain in the product history.

Material definitions

The large-load population is Countability's stated counting rule over the issuer's own fields -- load-class application types, size stated in megawatts, at or above the IESO's own 75 MW threshold -- published with the counts; the issuer publishes no such population itself.
Assessed station quantities are connection maxima for stations, never any plant's own demand; the Brief maintains this distinction wherever a figure appears.
Register 'Size' has no issuer definition and mixes increments with totals; it is quoted per row and never summed.
Applicants of record are frequently transmitters or distributors, not the named projects' proponents; conduct of an application is never attributed to the project's proponent.

Decisive limitations

Single register vintage: statuses are a snapshot; entries, exits, and status changes become observable only from the second monthly capture onward.
47 of the 67 population members -- including all four active applications above 400 MW -- have no posted assessment, so their stated sizes cannot be checked against any public engineering document.
The register is overwritten in place by the issuer; historical states not captured are unrecoverable.
A shared-capacity requirement in one assessment lineage is driven by a load forecast the issuer places in a confidential appendix: the threshold and the remedy are public, the quantity crossing it is not.

Key sources and licences

Needs Assessment Report — Northwest Ontario (2020-07-17) — Hydro One Networks Inc. Licence terms not read
IESO connection application register, JBL CTS #2 — IESO Licence terms not read
JBL CTS#2, CAA2025-843, final public System Impact Assessment — IESO Licence terms not read
Niagara Region Scoping Assessment Outcome Report — IESO Licence terms not read
Welland–Thorold regulatory records, EB-2025-0290 — Ontario Energy Board Licence terms not read
Electric power generation, monthly — table 25-10-0015-01, Ontario / total all classes of electricity producer / total all types of generation (vector v44174769) — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
Electric power generation, monthly, by producer and generation type — table 25-10-0016-01, Ontario totals (vector v44159114) — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full

This Receipt names the public sources and method needed to reproduce the figures it covers. Corrections are dated and explained, with the earlier published record retained.