Claim in the Record
OBSERVEDAdded to the Record 2026-08-11In the Record, not featured

PR admissions: level shift

This claim has been checked and added to the Record, and is not yet featured in a product. It appears here so the full Record stays inspectable.

The claim

PR admissions, monthly: level shift detected around Oct 2025

A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months places the largest level shift in pr admissions, monthly around Oct 2025: mean 37,888 before vs 28,699 after (shift = 1.6× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.

Method

Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.

Key sources and licences

Added to the Record2026-08-11
How it is usedIn the Record, not featured
Where it appearsAdmitted to the canonical claim corpus 2026-08-11; not yet placed on any other public surface. Admission is not publication — placement remains a separate, later editorial decision.
What would change itA revision to the PR-admissions series that removes the detected shift, or reversion to the prior band across subsequent months.
CorrectionsNone on record for this claim — policy →
Technical details
Record IDR17-break:pr_flow
Detection ruleR17-break
Indicatorpr_flow

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