Claim in the Record
OBSERVEDAdded to the Record 2026-07-13Featured in a product
Old-age dependency: structural level shift
The claim
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 aged 15-64), July 1: level shift detected around 2014
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 years places the largest level shift in old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 aged 15-64), july 1 around 2014: mean 18.35 before vs 26.58 after (shift = 4.4× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.
Method
Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.
Key sources and licences
- Population estimates on July 1, by age and gender, annual — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-07-13 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | Featured in a product |
| Where it appears | Featured in the Living Standards Brief as structural context for the population-structure term. → |
| What would change it | Postcensal population revisions to the age structure removing the detected shift — structural context, framed as structure, never as news. |
| Corrections | None on record for this claim — policy → |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:old_age_dependency |
|---|---|
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | old_age_dependency |
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