Claim in the Record
OBSERVEDAdded to the Record 2026-07-13Featured in a product
Federal interest burden: level shift around 2023 Q3
The claim
Federal interest on debt, % of revenue (National Accounts basis): level shift detected around 2023 Q3
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 quarters places the largest level shift in federal interest on debt, % of revenue (national accounts basis) around 2023 Q3: mean 6.85 before vs 10.05 after (shift = 4.8× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.
Method
Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.
Key sources and licences
- Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis) — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-07-13 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | Featured in a product |
| Where it appears | Featured in the fiscal domain story — federal fiscal room is under sustained pressure — and in the Canadian Capacity Monitor's fiscal room row. |
| What would change it | A National Accounts revision to the interest or revenue series that removes the detected shift, or subsequent quarters returning the ratio to its pre-2023 band. |
| Corrections | None on record for this claim — policy → |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:fiscal_interest_pct_revenue_q |
|---|---|
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | fiscal_interest_pct_revenue_q |
Every figure this Receipt covers can be reproduced from the named public sources under Countability's published method. If a correction is ever needed, it produces a new dated version rather than editing this one.