Asylum claims: level shift
This claim has been checked and added to the Record, and is not yet featured in a product. It appears here so the full Record stays inspectable.
The claim
Asylum claims, monthly: level shift detected around Oct 2025
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months places the largest level shift in asylum claims, monthly around Oct 2025: mean 12,274 before vs 6,309 after (shift = 2.3× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.
Method
Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.
Key sources and licences
- Asylum Claimants – Monthly IRCC Updates (rounded to nearest 5) — IRCC (Open Government) Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-08-11 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | In the Record, not featured |
| Where it appears | Admitted to the canonical claim corpus 2026-08-11; not yet placed on any other public surface. Admission is not publication — placement remains a separate, later editorial decision. |
| What would change it | A revision to the asylum-claims series that removes the detected shift, or reversion to the prior band across subsequent months. |
| Corrections | None on record for this claim — policy → |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:asylum_flow |
|---|---|
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | asylum_flow |
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