{
 "schema_version": "receipt/1",
 "id": "receipt-brief-living-standards",
 "collection_version": "living-intelligence-harvest-1-2026-08",
 "product": {
  "family": "brief",
  "id": "brief-gdp-anatomy-2026-07",
  "title": "The anatomy of Canadian living standards",
  "href": "/briefs/living-standards-anatomy/"
 },
 "question": "What share of the change in real GDP per person comes from output per worker, the employment rate, participation, and population structure?",
 "current_reading": "Real GDP per person rose 1.6 per cent over the four quarters to 2026 Q2, to $60,944 in chained 2017 dollars. That is the largest four-quarter gain since the four quarters ending 2022 Q3, and it leaves the per-person level 0.1 per cent below the record set in that same quarter. Of the 262 quarters this record holds a per-person figure for, going back to 1961, only two stand at or above today's level: 2022 Q3 and 2026 Q2.\n\nThe gain is not mainly a production story. Real GDP grew 1.1 per cent over those four quarters while the population fell 0.5 per cent, so a smaller denominator supplied part of the rise. In the identity's own terms, population structure contributed +1.21 percentage points of the +1.57-point total, output per worker +0.80, the employment rate +0.02, and participation -0.46.\n\nOutput per worker adding is a change from the two windows before this one, in which it subtracted. It last added over the four quarters to 2025 Q3. What cannot yet be said is where that gain came from: Statistics Canada has not yet published business-sector labour productivity or hours worked for 2026 Q2, so the split of output per worker into output per hour and hours per worker is unavailable for this window and is reported as unavailable rather than estimated.\n\nThis is the Brief's second reading. Its first reading, on evidence through 2026 Q1, said per-person output had barely moved and that the whole small gain was compositional. Two things changed that: a new quarter, and Statistics Canada's restatement of 2026 Q1 on 28 August 2026, which raised that quarter's real GDP by 0.12 per cent and by itself moved the previously published four-quarter reading from +0.19 to +0.31 percentage points. Latest window: total +0.31 pp, of which population structure alone contributed +1.37 pp.",
 "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-02",
 "basis": "An exact log-change accounting identity over Statistics Canada series already held in the record: real GDP, population, employment, labour force, LFS working-age population, and the labour-productivity index. The terms sum to the per-person change exactly, and that arithmetic is re-checked automatically every time the record is rebuilt.",
 "method": "Pinned, cited evidence; every scenario uses a named, disclosed formula and is recomputed exactly with each rebuild of the record.",
 "material_definitions": [
  "The identity locates arithmetic, never causes: a term's contribution is where the change shows up in measurement, not why it happened.",
  "Output per worker is sub-split into three lines: output per hour (measured, the Statistics Canada labour-productivity index, business sector, SNA hours basis), hours worked per employed person (measured, the business-sector hours-worked index against Labour Force Survey employment), and a narrower national-accounts / business-sector scope reconciliation (derived residual). The three bases are never silently mixed, and the three lines sum to the output-per-worker term exactly.",
  "Monthly labour terms are sampled at quarter starts to align with quarterly GDP and population, a convention reviewed and adopted in July 2026.",
  "The historical record is read in four eras at quarter-exact decade-end boundaries (the end of 1991, 2000, 2010, and 2019, plus the rolling latest quarter); each era's growth rate is the identity's own annualized log change, so the four eras and the latest-window reading are one computation, not two methods.",
  "Each internal era boundary is also tested shifted two quarters earlier and later, independently. The 2019 boundary's forward shift lands inside the record's own documented COVID-19 shock window and is reported as uninterpretable for that reason, never smoothed into an average.",
  "The record's per-person peak and how the latest level compares with it are both identified by a direct scan of the full quarterly series, never assumed from a single window.",
  "Full four-term coverage begins in 1991, the fully aligned floor across all seven core series. A two-term (population and per-person) context runs back to the start of the real GDP series; the four-term identity without the measured-hours subsplit is available for any window entirely within the labour force survey's own floor. Every figure states which coverage tier it belongs to.",
  "A separate illustrative presentation reads the pre-1991 record in three windows (1961-1970, 1970-1980, 1980-1991): real GDP, population, and per-person growth throughout, with the four-term identity added for the one window (1980-1991) whose full span sits inside the labour force survey's coverage. This presentation is explicitly not a fifth era and carries its own coverage-tier disclosure on the page; it does not feed the four core eras above or change their boundaries."
 ],
 "decisive_limitations": [
  "The output-per-worker sub-split's remaining derived line (the national-accounts / business-sector scope reconciliation) is the gap between whole-economy real GDP and the business-sector GDP concept the productivity and hours-worked indexes are built on — not an hours effect. That effect is now measured directly.",
  "A Canada–United States comparison is deferred until the two countries' measures can be matched and the source licences allow commercial use; nothing on this Receipt compares countries.",
  "Era boundaries are conventions, not natural breakpoints. The disclosed sensitivity check shows the qualitative pattern is stable except where a shifted boundary lands inside the pandemic shock window, which this Receipt states rather than conceals.",
  "The record before 1991 does not carry the same four-term coverage as 1991 onward: the illustrative pre-1991 windows show real GDP, population, and per-person growth throughout, and the four-term identity only where a window's full span sits inside the labour force survey's floor (1976 onward) -- never the measured-hours subsplit, which requires 1981 onward on both endpoints. Every pre-1991 figure states which measures it does and does not include.",
  "Chained-dollar levels are not additive across periods; every era comparison uses log changes of the same series, never a difference of chained-dollar levels across widely separated periods."
 ],
 "confidence": "Every input is an official published series already in the record; the breakdown is exact arithmetic, re-checked automatically on every rebuild, including the era ladder, the boundary sensitivity check, and the per-capita peak scan.",
 "next_trigger": "The next quarterly GDP or demographic release that moves any term materially, a revision that changes a prior reading, or an annual comprehensive National Accounts revision that moves any era's annualized rate by at least a tenth of a percentage point or changes the eras' order.",
 "next_evidence": "Quarterly GDP (Statistics Canada), quarterly demographic estimates, monthly Labour Force Survey, and Statistics Canada's annual comprehensive National Accounts revision — see the release table on Now.",
 "expires": "The current reading expires at the next quarterly GDP and population releases; the method itself is standing.",
 "sources": [
  {
   "key": "statcan:14-10-0287-01",
   "name": "Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted",
   "org": "Statistics Canada",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701"
  },
  {
   "key": "statcan:17-10-0009-01",
   "name": "Population estimates, quarterly",
   "org": "Statistics Canada",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901"
  },
  {
   "key": "statcan:36-10-0104-01",
   "name": "GDP, expenditure-based, quarterly",
   "org": "Statistics Canada",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010401"
  },
  {
   "key": "statcan:36-10-0206-01",
   "name": "Indexes of business sector labour productivity and related measures, quarterly, seasonally adjusted",
   "org": "Statistics Canada",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610020601"
  }
 ],
 "other_citations": 0,
 "corrections": "/corrections/"
}