{
 "schema_version": "receipt/1",
 "id": "receipt-brief-nato-2pct",
 "collection_version": "living-intelligence-harvest-1-2026-08",
 "product": {
  "family": "brief",
  "id": "brief-nato-2pct-2026-07",
  "title": "Canada and NATO's defence-spending benchmark",
  "href": "/briefs/canada-nato-2-percent/"
 },
 "question": "What would it actually take for Canada's defence expenditure to satisfy NATO's benchmark, and how should the announcements, funding plans, voted appropriations, and audited spending behind that claim be read against each other?",
 "current_reading": "NATO's own estimate puts Canada at 2.01% of GDP for Fiscal year 2025-26 (NATO table label: 2025e) — unaudited, on NATO's own forecast denominator. Recomputed against Statistics Canada's fiscal-year-matched GDP, the same dollar figure reads 1.92%.",
 "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-19",
 "basis": "NATO's own reported expenditure figures and ratios, across two report editions; Statistics Canada's fiscal-year-matched quarterly nominal GDP as the disclosed alternative denominator; DND's audited departmental actuals for the scope comparison; the government's own achievement announcement and NATO's own institutional corroboration; the Parliamentary Budget Officer's own costing of NATO's newer guideline. Bases are shown side by side, never merged.",
 "method": "Pinned, cited evidence; every scenario uses a named, disclosed formula and is recomputed exactly with each rebuild of the record.",
 "material_definitions": [
  "NATO's expenditure definition counts items outside DND's departmental budget (pensions, coast guard, other departments), so NATO-basis and departmental figures differ by definition.",
  "NATO's published ratio uses NATO's own GDP forecast as denominator, made before the fiscal year closes; the matched-denominator recomputation uses Statistics Canada's actual fiscal-year quarters.",
  "Fiscal-year figures for 2025-26 are estimates until the Public Accounts settle them.",
  "NATO's 2026 report edition reports Canada's CORE defence expenditure only -- a narrower basis than the 2025 edition's all-in ratio against the original 2% guideline; the two are not directly comparable."
 ],
 "decisive_limitations": [
  "The original headline 2.01% is NATO's own unaudited estimate against NATO's own forecast denominator; recomputed against Statistics Canada's actual fiscal-year GDP the same dollar figure reads approximately 1.92%.",
  "No audited outturn exists for fiscal 2025-26 in any scope; every 2025-26 figure on this receipt is a plan, an estimate, or a preliminary self-reported observation.",
  "NATO's own guideline has moved to 5% of GDP by 2035 (3.5% core plus 1.5% additional); Canada's newest core-only figure sits well below the 3.5% core share alone, and no Canadian institution has published a costed, country-specific plan for closing that gap."
 ],
 "confidence": "The arithmetic is exact over pinned published figures; the open question is which published figures, and which of NATO's two guidelines, the reader treats as decisive -- the receipt keeps every basis visible.",
 "next_trigger": "The Public Accounts of Canada 2026 audited outturn, or NATO's next annual defence-investment report, whichever is published first.",
 "next_evidence": "Public Accounts 2026 (expected autumn 2026); NATO's next annual defence-investment report (expected mid-2027).",
 "expires": "Valid until either trigger publishes; a new dated Receipt is then produced against the new evidence, with its correction history intact.",
 "sources": [
  {
   "key": "dnd:departmental-plan-2025-26",
   "name": "Departmental Plan 2025-26",
   "org": "Department of National Defence",
   "licence_status": "not_recorded",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "finance:budget-2025-chap4-defence",
   "name": "Federal Budget 2025 ('Canada Strong', tabled 2025-11-04), Chapter 4",
   "org": "Department of Finance Canada",
   "licence_status": "not_recorded",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "nato:ankara-summit-declaration-2026",
   "name": "The Ankara Summit Declaration",
   "org": "North Atlantic Treaty Organisation",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "nato:def-exp-2025",
   "name": "Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2025)",
   "org": "North Atlantic Treaty Organisation",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "nato:def-exp-2026",
   "name": "Defence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026)",
   "org": "North Atlantic Treaty Organisation",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "nato:defence-investment-update-2026-07",
   "name": "Defence Investment Update: Record Spending in Europe and Canada",
   "org": "North Atlantic Treaty Organisation",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "nato:sg-annual-report-2026-03",
   "name": "NATO Secretary General's Annual Report shows significant increase in defence investment from Europe and Canada",
   "org": "North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Office of the Secretary General)",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "pbo:blog-2425-005-s",
   "name": "Update of Canada's Military Expenditure and the NATO 2% Spending Target (BLOG-2425-005-S)",
   "org": "Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "pbo:rp2526-022-s-nato-5pct",
   "name": "Fiscal Implications of Meeting NATO's 5% Commitment (RP-2526-022-S)",
   "org": "Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "pmo:2025-06-09-defence-announcement",
   "name": "Canada's new government is rebuilding, rearming, and reinvesting in the Canadian Armed Forces",
   "org": "Prime Minister's Office (Government of Canada)",
   "licence_status": "not_recorded",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "pmo:2026-03-26-nato-2pct-achieved",
   "name": "Prime Minister Carney announces Canada has achieved the NATO 2% defence spending target",
   "org": "Prime Minister's Office (Government of Canada)",
   "licence_status": "not_recorded",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "receiver-general:public-accounts-2025-vol2-sec20-dnd",
   "name": "Public Accounts of Canada 2025, Volume II, Section 20: National Defence, Ministry Summary",
   "org": "Receiver General for Canada (Public Services and Procurement Canada)",
   "licence_status": "not_recorded",
   "url": null
  },
  {
   "key": "statcan:36-10-0104-01",
   "name": "GDP, expenditure-based, quarterly",
   "org": "Statistics Canada",
   "licence_status": "verbatim",
   "url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010401"
  }
 ],
 "other_citations": 0,
 "corrections": "/corrections/"
}